BretWx Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Phew. Hard not to get excited. Glad to finally have something to look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 GFS is rock solid on something going down in the day 8 timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Nice. Always good to read words like, big dog, chops, rock solid among others in the morning. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 I wouldn't say rock solid just yet. This cutoff is big and can go one way or the other. It is nice we will have a cold source but as you see we have had a lot of jumps here and there in modeling just as the euro has done. Ill be paying close attention to all the models but especially the GFS. One big issue I could see is that cutoff getting stuck west of us... Still its nice to track something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 11 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: 28 this morning at the house with heavy frost to the ground. I see the mention of wintry weather Sunday night, but it's still uncertain at this range for anything other than speculation. Models are suggesting we get cold early next week. That cold core upper low track is critical to what next week brings. Meanwhile we continue to see those very colorful digital snowfall totals. Not sure I'm ready to dig out of 2 feet of snow! Yeah a beautiful cold morning here with a low of 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: 28 this morning at the house with heavy frost to the ground. I see the mention of wintry weather Sunday night, but it's still uncertain at this range for anything other than speculation. Models are suggesting we get cold early next week. That cold core upper low track is critical to what next week brings. Meanwhile we continue to see those very colorful digital snowfall totals. Not sure I'm ready to dig out of 2 feet of snow! Yeah the 6z gfs hammers our area especially the southern facing mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 36 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah the 6z gfs hammers our area especially the southern facing mountains. And in all honesty, it’s close to hammering the entire normal climo favored region. Just need that storm to tick a hair closer to the coast. Cold air seems like it’ll be around, as will a storm (somewhere). Can’t ask for much else! Especially after last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 13 minutes ago, BooneWX said: And in all honesty, it’s close to hammering the entire normal climo favored region. Just need that storm to tick a hair closer to the coast. Cold air seems like it’ll be around, as will a storm (somewhere). Can’t ask for much else! Especially after last winter Lol thats always the case it seems like. Cold air will be around and we just need the moisture or vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 Well big changes on the 12z GFS. There is no second storm cutoff. What happens is the primary trough cuts off and this turns into a pretty significant upslope event. The cutoff storm never materializes this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 This is just one run though but if this is a trend then we get no storm out of that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Well big changes on the 12z GFS. There is no second storm cutoff. What happens is the primary trough cuts off and this turns into a pretty significant upslope event. The cutoff storm never materializes this run.Yeah very close with that first storm. Phases just a little too late. Main takeaway is that the timeframe from Dec 1-8th looks conducive for some form of a winter storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 Just now, Hvward said: Yeah very close with that first storm. Phases just a little too late. Main takeaway is that the timeframe from Dec 1-8th looks conducive for some form of a winter storm. Yeah and at least we have something to track early on. Subtle changes in blocking can make all the difference with these things as you know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 35 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Well big changes on the 12z GFS. There is no second storm cutoff. What happens is the primary trough cuts off and this turns into a pretty significant upslope event. The cutoff storm never materializes this run. The cmc and icon phase a little faster and show a decent snow for wnc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 Just now, Sw NC weather said: The cmc and icon phase a little faster and show a decent snow for wnc. Yeah its just one run but something I expected to happen. We will see how the rest of todays runs go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Been MIA because I forgot my login info. Y’all book it on a storm next week, I leave on the 30th and won’t get home from working in Louisiana until late the 7th. Was mid-20’s when I left the house at 5 this morning, right around 30 over in Mt Sterling when I got off the interstate. Probably ended up high 20’s over where I’m hunting, frosty morning that felt good. No deer were harmed though I did have one give me the slip, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: Been MIA because I forgot my login info. Y’all book it on a storm next week, I leave on the 30th and won’t get home from working in Louisiana until late the 7th. Was mid-20’s when I left the house at 5 this morning, right around 30 over in Mt Sterling when I got off the interstate. Probably ended up high 20’s over where I’m hunting, frosty morning that felt good. No deer were harmed though I did have one give me the slip, I was wondering were you went. I knew you posted regularly. Glad you got logged back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 30 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: Been MIA because I forgot my login info. Y’all book it on a storm next week, I leave on the 30th and won’t get home from working in Louisiana until late the 7th. Was mid-20’s when I left the house at 5 this morning, right around 30 over in Mt Sterling when I got off the interstate. Probably ended up high 20’s over where I’m hunting, frosty morning that felt good. No deer were harmed though I did have one give me the slip, Winter storm tracking brings everyone back like a good ol' fashioned homecoming. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 I kept trying the wrong password and was too lazy to reset it lol. I’m just glad we’ve had a couple days of November weather, makes me not sweat as much when I’m walking around the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 I swear we have already had as many big frosts as last winter.. seems like it at least lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 18 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I swear we have already had as many big frosts as last winter.. seems like it at least lol We have... It was 19 here this morning. We have had warm days but cold nights. Thats how Fall should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, Met1985 said: We have... It was 19 here this morning. We have had warm days but cold nights. Thats how Fall should be. Air feels like snow today. Got a bite to it. It was 25 here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 I will say this the teleconnections are jumpy from day to day especially with regards to blocking. Something is happening over the poles and if it transpires we may see a pretty severe outbreak of cold in the early to middle December but that is a big if currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Starts Tuesday: Ends By Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Heres the Canadian: That was 6z GFS above: Enjoy and dont let it melt. Ill be up there Friday night 12/4 for the Game! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 0z euro Starts Tuesday, Is futher west (notice Indiana) but gets a lot of this here off wrap around. This is by saturday morning 12/5. Lot to track this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 The GSP AFD is a really good read this morning! 878 FXUS62 KGSP 251143 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 643 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020 && . LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday: Much colder air wrapping in behind the low pressure may lead to falling snow levels Monday into Monday evening with snow along the peaks possibly dropping into the mountain valleys during the evening. A rapid occlusion of the surface low is fairly likely later Monday into Tuesday near the Lower Great Lakes or middle Appalachians, would significantly slow if not full on stop the progression of the newly vertically stacked low. The location of the low could place us under a prolonged period of northwest flow with lingering low level moisture, steep lapse rates thanks to the cold air mass loft and rounds of enhanced lift rotating overhead perhaps supporting an additional 12-24 window with periods of northwest snowfall across the high terrain especially near the TN border (taking us into Tuesday). At least light snowfall accumulations are in play near the TN border. We may be in store for the coldest air of the season by Tuesday with highs only in the 30s to near 40 mountains to 40s east of the mountains which will only feel cold with breezy northwest winds across the region. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Love the look for next week. Assuming the foothills can’t squeeze in some climatological luck, I may have to make the short trip up the mountain to get my snow fix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Currently on top of bear wallow mt. Wind is awesome! . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Love the look for next week. Assuming the foothills can’t squeeze in some climatological luck, I may have to make the short trip up the mountain to get my snow fix. Not gonna lie. I'm way more excited about this than I should be at this point. I remember the storm that seemed like a guaranteed 8-10" last December that I got 2" from. But I'm in the NWF belt above 4000'. I may get burned, but I can't help but be stoked. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 16 minutes ago, Buckethead said: Not gonna lie. I'm way more excited about this than I should be at this point. I remember the storm that seemed like a guaranteed 8-10" last December that I got 2" from. But I'm in the NWF belt above 4000'. I may get burned, but I can't help but be stoked. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Ironically I think this may shape up to be a primary upslope event depending on were the low cuts off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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