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2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread


Met1985
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13 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Man we radiate beautifully here. My P&C forecast has me for a low of 33 but I am already at 36 this late afternoon. 

 Inversion is going to be big tonight. Temps here are pretty steady, only off 2 degrees from my high. Might be one of those nights where there is a 20 degree difference from valleys to the ridges. I got to 19.2 for the low this morning.

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1 hour ago, SnoJoe said:

 Inversion is going to be big tonight. Temps here are pretty steady, only off 2 degrees from my high. Might be one of those nights where there is a 20 degree difference from valleys to the ridges. I got to 19.2 for the low this morning.

Yeah that is a possibility.  Man I love these microclimates we have and micro weather from place to place around here.

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Looks like we may start to see a pattern change after Thanksgiving to something we might can work with better.  Its still very early and things can dissolve over a few runs. 

Yeah was coming here to post about that.  Pattern change looks almost certain now around the beginning of Dec with both the GFS & Euro showing the potential for some energy to move through the South.  Glad to finally have something to track..

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Looks like we are still marching towards some sort of a pattern change after Thanksgiving.  It could be significant or transient.  Im not sure yet but we might have something to track at least in the short to medium range.
I just noticed that on the NWS forecast there's an 80% chance of snow showers tonight up here.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Maggie Ace said:

I've been monitoring the long range guidance for about a week and I must admit now that we are approaching the medium range, the ECMWF and the Canadian are intriguing. If trends hold into Thursday, believe we have a shot at some wintry weather. That's a powerful storm signal exiting Texas late this coming week!

I dont trust either one until the GFS jumps in board with that deep of a trough. It looks great but the euro has been playing catchup to the GFS in the middle range now for quite some time. We will see as we get closer to next weekend.  Hey us in Haywood should get together one morning for breakfast and talk some weather.

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2 hours ago, Maggie Ace said:

Already down to 35 at the house. Our forecast of 31 for a morning low in Maggie looks like a bust. We'll need to thread the needle and get the phasing just right for early next week, but I do believe the first 10 days of December look doable for wintry weather for us Mountain folk. 

Same here already down to 34 looks like we’re heading for mid 20’s tonight.

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The 0z gfs is deeper with the trough on the 30s so it brings us a better chance for upslope snow and much colder air. I still would like to get this under 5 days. After that the strange massive cutoff is derper and colder and further east which is good. This would be a significant snowfall verbatim for a large portion of the area for this time of the year. Still that is 10 days out. Proceed with extreme caution.  I like seeing this on the GFS though. 

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4 hours ago, Met1985 said:

The 0z gfs is deeper with the trough on the 30s so it brings us a better chance for upslope snow and much colder air. I still would like to get this under 5 days. After that the strange massive cutoff is derper and colder and further east which is good. This would be a significant snowfall verbatim for a large portion of the area for this time of the year. Still that is 10 days out. Proceed with extreme caution.  I like seeing this on the GFS though. 

this is also when we began seeing the 2018 storm pop up.... it brings excitement but still a long ways to go.

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