Met1985 Posted November 18, 2020 Author Share Posted November 18, 2020 On 11/18/2020 at 2:03 PM, Buckethead said: Down to 19 this morning in Wolf. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Expand Was 20 here. Beautiful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2020 Author Share Posted November 18, 2020 Man we radiate beautifully here. My P&C forecast has me for a low of 33 but I am already at 36 this late afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 On 11/18/2020 at 10:36 PM, Met1985 said: Man we radiate beautifully here. My P&C forecast has me for a low of 33 but I am already at 36 this late afternoon. Expand Inversion is going to be big tonight. Temps here are pretty steady, only off 2 degrees from my high. Might be one of those nights where there is a 20 degree difference from valleys to the ridges. I got to 19.2 for the low this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2020 Author Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/18/2020 at 10:56 PM, SnoJoe said: Inversion is going to be big tonight. Temps here are pretty steady, only off 2 degrees from my high. Might be one of those nights where there is a 20 degree difference from valleys to the ridges. I got to 19.2 for the low this morning. Expand Yeah that is a possibility. Man I love these microclimates we have and micro weather from place to place around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2020 Author Share Posted November 19, 2020 Yeah we are dropping off fast. Down to 31 here already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 12:18 AM, Met1985 said: Yeah that is a possibility. Man I love these microclimates we have and micro weather from place to place around here. Expand Very true. The top of Sugar Mountain just hit their high for the day at 34.7. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2020 Author Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 12:27 AM, SnoJoe said: Very true. The top of Sugar Mountain just hit their high for the day at 34.7. Expand Crazy. Looks like inversion city for those at the top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 21, 2020 Author Share Posted November 21, 2020 Looks like we may start to see a pattern change after Thanksgiving to something we might can work with better. Its still very early and things can dissolve over a few runs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 On 11/21/2020 at 10:06 AM, Met1985 said: Looks like we may start to see a pattern change after Thanksgiving to something we might can work with better. Its still very early and things can dissolve over a few runs. Expand Yeah was coming here to post about that. Pattern change looks almost certain now around the beginning of Dec with both the GFS & Euro showing the potential for some energy to move through the South. Glad to finally have something to track.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Honestly, I don't care if the [potential] cool down is transient. I'll take any part of December actually feeling like December anytime. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Look forward to hopefully seeing some snow flakes in December; for now I like seeing this thing of beauty: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 22, 2020 Author Share Posted November 22, 2020 Looks like we are still marching towards some sort of a pattern change after Thanksgiving. It could be significant or transient. Im not sure yet but we might have something to track at least in the short to medium range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 On 11/22/2020 at 10:33 AM, Met1985 said: Looks like we are still marching towards some sort of a pattern change after Thanksgiving. It could be significant or transient. Im not sure yet but we might have something to track at least in the short to medium range.I just noticed that on the NWS forecast there's an 80% chance of snow showers tonight up here. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 22, 2020 Author Share Posted November 22, 2020 On 11/22/2020 at 4:38 PM, Buckethead said: I just noticed that on the NWS forecast there's an 80% chance of snow showers tonight up here. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Expand Yeah its going to be a cold rain here. They are calling for 34 and rain here... Hopefully you will see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 22, 2020 Author Share Posted November 22, 2020 On 11/22/2020 at 7:47 PM, Maggie Ace said: I've been monitoring the long range guidance for about a week and I must admit now that we are approaching the medium range, the ECMWF and the Canadian are intriguing. If trends hold into Thursday, believe we have a shot at some wintry weather. That's a powerful storm signal exiting Texas late this coming week! Expand I dont trust either one until the GFS jumps in board with that deep of a trough. It looks great but the euro has been playing catchup to the GFS in the middle range now for quite some time. We will see as we get closer to next weekend. Hey us in Haywood should get together one morning for breakfast and talk some weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 EPS snow signal getting strong each run for KAVL. That’s a measure I like to watch this far out from the possibility of wintery weather. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 On 11/23/2020 at 11:51 AM, Hvward said: EPS snow signal getting strong each run for KAVL. That’s a measure I like to watch this far out from the possibility of wintery weather.Good to see ya again Hunter! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 On 11/22/2020 at 4:38 PM, Buckethead said: I just noticed that on the NWS forecast there's an 80% chance of snow showers tonight up here. Sent from my SM-G970U using TapatalkWell I didn't see a flake this time either. Just cloudy, calm and 29°.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 On 11/23/2020 at 12:36 PM, Buckethead said: Well I didn't see a flake this time either. Just cloudy, calm and 29°. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Expand 33 here this morning. Just some showers that came through overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 As suspected big changes on the euro today which are not good for snow and cold lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 On 11/23/2020 at 6:47 PM, Met1985 said: As suspected big changes on the euro today which are not good for snow and cold lovers. Expand To be fair it was pretty cold at the end of the run and it snowed in Eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 12z EPS has some big dogs. Looks to me like a decent window for some sort of phasing to occur. Still a ton of details to be hammered out, but this is not a bad look 7-9 days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 Im running the pessimistic train for now. The Euro is just not what it used to be in the mid range. Also the telleconnections today looked worst that previous days. But we are 7 to 9 days out like Ward has stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 Also we are down to 32 degrees already. Beautiful evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 18z GFS has a bizarre ULL end of next week. Also tries really hard to get something going with next week's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 I just looked over some models and they explain why this page is starting to light up. There’s a lot of them that show a somewhat favorable pattern into December. Let’s get something inside 5 days and reel it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/23/2020 at 11:40 PM, Maggie Ace said: Already down to 35 at the house. Our forecast of 31 for a morning low in Maggie looks like a bust. We'll need to thread the needle and get the phasing just right for early next week, but I do believe the first 10 days of December look doable for wintry weather for us Mountain folk. Expand Same here already down to 34 looks like we’re heading for mid 20’s tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 The 0z gfs is deeper with the trough on the 30s so it brings us a better chance for upslope snow and much colder air. I still would like to get this under 5 days. After that the strange massive cutoff is derper and colder and further east which is good. This would be a significant snowfall verbatim for a large portion of the area for this time of the year. Still that is 10 days out. Proceed with extreme caution. I like seeing this on the GFS though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 4:40 AM, Met1985 said: The 0z gfs is deeper with the trough on the 30s so it brings us a better chance for upslope snow and much colder air. I still would like to get this under 5 days. After that the strange massive cutoff is derper and colder and further east which is good. This would be a significant snowfall verbatim for a large portion of the area for this time of the year. Still that is 10 days out. Proceed with extreme caution. I like seeing this on the GFS though. Expand this is also when we began seeing the 2018 storm pop up.... it brings excitement but still a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 You boys better start licking your chops. Get minor upslope early week, Then a Big Dog Thursday into Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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