September 2020 General Discussion

[fluoronium]

https://twitter.com/NWSLincolnIL/status/1300857274706006021?s=2

This rain is very welcome here! The dry weather has caused a lot of the trees here to start dropping leaves.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Gonna end up with <0.10" for most areas.

Not even 0.10-0.20"?  

Looks like a narrow swath here or a hair south could end up with a decent amount.

[Chicago Storm]

43 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not even 0.10-0.20"?  

Looks like a narrow swath here or a hair south could end up with a decent amount.

Looks more like it ended up <0.15" for most of the area.

 

The exception being that narrow swath you mentioned, which looks to have stayed along/south of I-80...0.50-1.50" there.

[nwohweather]

I could absolutely kill for some Ohio weather in September. Currently 94 and muggy here at the house, yet I'm looking at the forecast and seeing 75/52 for Friday up there. My hoodies are going to be doing nothing other than collecting dust for a little while longer it looks like.

[cyclone77]

Off to a fast start for September, picked up 0.02" of rain this afternoon.

[Hoosier]

A whopping 0.19" at ORD through 4 pm. 

Better luck on Sunday.  Maybe.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Off to a fast start for September, picked up 0.02" of rain this afternoon.

And DVN didn't pull the trigger on flash flood warnings?

[cyclone77]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

And DVN didn't pull the trigger on flash flood warnings?

They at least could have hoisted a windshield wiper advisory.

[Hoosier]

The system progged for next week looks like one of those classic sign of the changing season systems.  If it comes together right, could be nasty cool on the northwest side by early Sept standards.  

[Hoosier]

Ever seen 0C 850 mb progged into southern Iowa/northern Missouri prior to the middle of September?  

Not some 300 hour thing either.  While I'd have to think it is overdone, could we see 850's in the low-mid single digits?

 

[Powerball]

As of the 00z suite of runs, the GFS is kind of on its own with that solution. 

[cyclone77]

00z Euro has wet snow mixing in near Sioux Falls SD early Tue morning, with a pretty significant snowstorm for much of Colorado and far western NE.  Insert Ned Stark meme here.

[madwx]

With another typhoon recurving expect another cold dump during the second and third week of September. Wouldn’t be surprised at some early frosts in northern areas 

[MIstorm97]

Probably should get some waterspouts this weekend on and off starting Friday with these cold shots coming in. Should get steep lapse rates and high delta T's with 850mb temps diving below 10C.

[Torchageddon]

I got my first CGs of 2020 last night from some nebulous storms that were originally together then quickly were falling apart precip wise. I saw a bunch of nice streaks in the sky. I'm wary of storms here in Sept and advise that's when to take them seriously in my neck of the woods. Looks like last night was right on cue.

[A-L-E-K]

lol

 

 

[Hoosier]

[Hoosier]

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

lol

 

 

Hopefully we get a favorable wind direction.  

[A-L-E-K]

Gonna have so many cutters this winter 

[Chicago Storm]

It's like the weather followed the flip of the calendar to a T.

[madwx]

the Euro has a pretty radically different look to early next week for the past few runs.

[Brian D]

Cool day yesterday with some thunder late. Today is breezy west winds with temps in the low 70's. More rain on tap tonight. Gale warnings out for the lake, especially for tomorrow a.m.. Up to 40 kts(45mph) hitting the Bayfield peninsula and Apostle islands. Windy day on tap around here tomorrow a.m..

[hawkeye_wx]

What the g** d*** f***?  The models have been locked into the big chill next week.  The Euro has been trending slower and now has totally removed the big chill as a piece of energy cuts off well to the west and keeps pumping the heat up into the midwest.  Now it's 90s through Wednesday.  Ugh!  I sure hope this is wrong and it'll correct back toward a cooler solution like the GFS.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

What the g** d*** f***?  The models have been locked into the big chill next week.  The Euro has been trending slower and now has totally removed the big chill as a piece of energy cuts off well to the west and keeps pumping the heat up into the midwest.  Now it's 90s through Wednesday.  Ugh!

Does Euro still have a bias with cutoffs or is that a thing of the past?

[madwx]

Para GFS and both GFS ensembles back the op GFS.  Same with the UKMET and the Canadian.

[hawkeye_wx]

8 minutes ago, madwx said:

Para GFS and both GFS ensembles back the op GFS.  Same with the UKMET and the Canadian.

Yeah, the GFS is holding steady with its forecast.  It's not even hinting that anything resembling today's Euro is possible.

[Snowstorms]

30 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

What the g** d*** f***?  The models have been locked into the big chill next week.  The Euro has been trending slower and now has totally removed the big chill as a piece of energy cuts off well to the west and keeps pumping the heat up into the midwest.  Now it's 90s through Wednesday.  Ugh!  I sure hope this is wrong and it'll correct back toward a cooler solution like the GFS.

That PNA ridge off the Pacific coast is a bit too far west hence the trough sets up towards the Prairies and Plains on the Euro. On the flip side, seems like the Bermuda high has strengthened over the last few runs and that ends up pushing more heat towards our region next week. That cut-off on the Euro throws a wrench in any long-lasting cold for our region. The Euro OP seems to have support from the EPS too. The GFS ensembles eventually break off the cross polar flow and shift the ridge towards Alaska around mid-month and the heat builds back up again lol. How long it lasts? Hard to say. Seems like September may end up warmer than normal again.

[Hoosier]

LOT's take is that there is not much room for a compromise solution.

 

The main player in building the central CONUS trough early next
week is stalled near the Aleutians, so the forecast will be highly
dependent on when (or how much of) that energy is displaced into
mainland North America. Additionally, guidance shows a significant
divergence in solutions by mid-week, producing about as large of
a disparity in the forecast as one could see a week out. Raw
deterministic max temps by mid-week vary by as much as 40 degrees
between the GFS (50s) and ECMWF (around 90), owing entirely to
whether the central CONUS trough becomes cut off (ECMWF) vs.
ejecting northeast through the Great Lakes (GFS). The potential
for a highly baroclinic boundary to stall across the Upper Great
Lakes/Mississippi River Valley ahead of the Great Plains trough
will lead to a rather active period with heavy rain and periods of
potentially strong to severe convection somewhere in the region
Monday into Wednesday. The CWA is precariously close to this
boundary in guidance, so prepare for the potential of significant
changes in the forecast next week. Statistically speaking, the
forecast spectrum is quite binary and produces more of a double
bell curve...either unseasonably warm and dry or unseasonably cold
and wet with, low probabilities of something in between.

Kluber

[A-L-E-K]

Good stuff 

[cyclone77]

MLI snuck in another 90 today.  Hit 87 here.