mempho Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Latest NHC map looking like we might have a tropical storm--strength system track into the TN Valley for the first time in 15 years or so.While this could be exciting for us, I do realize that these come at a huge cost to others-- getting a tropical storm into TN almost always requires a catastrophic hit along the coast. The last such storm was Katrina (Opal & Camille are the others). That said, I do find the situation interesting and exciting, so let's get on with the show... Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 The entire state will face prolonged exposure to the right-front quadrant and should see potential impacts from high winds, tornadic potential, and flooding rains. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 It appears to be very healthy still in Arkansas. Still has 65 mph sustained winds. I am surprised NW Tennessee isn't forecast to get more than 2-4 inches of rain with it taking 12 hours to cross from NE Arkansas to just east of Clarksville. That little area of SW Kentucky is in the red flash flooding bullseye though. After that it gets caught in the westerlies and will start booking it out of our region. Looks like Memphis is about to get it's first few showers and some pretty strong storms in a feeder band off the Gulf are headed north through Alabama. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Friday slight risk is justified. Laura will start to assume hybrid characteristics regardless of the depression designation. Appears the 500 mb winds will be veered compared to 850 mb, more turning than a pure tropical system. A 200 mb jet streak will be over North Georgia and southeast Tenn. However the best overall features appear northern Middle Tenn. Two convergence lines are shown on all guidance, CAMs and globals. One pushes out toward the I-65 by midday with another coming out of West Tenn mid afternoon. I think the back one will have more CAPE with which to work. Front one may run into an even farther east feature, morning rain East Tenn. Focusing on the back convergence line, it appears to intersect even more backed winds around Clarksville mid-afternoon. Calling that the hybrid quasi triple point, east-southeast of the surface low. Should be great convergence and excellent turning there. However CAPE will be greater, with still good turning, Nashville south. While this reads like a severe wx post, well it is, I will post in the Laura thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 No idea how my post ended up formatted so oddly. Is the right front quadrant still a key location when a storm turns like this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Looks like some nasty cells are gonna push through Memphis within the next few hours. Smaller line of storms but they are packing some serious rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, John1122 said: No idea how my post ended up formatted so oddly. Is the right front quadrant still a key location when a storm turns like this? From everything I’ve seen, yes. Mississippi has been dealing with it for most of the day today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Right front will be the main show overnight. Arkansas has truly rain-wrapped tornado warnings in a shield of rain. Also think leading edge of the rain is going into higher CAPE in western Mississippi. Friday right front quad may remain so, but it's way up over Kentucky. When Laura gets more hybrid, could be sups straight east or even southeast with those convergence lines in more CAPE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted August 28, 2020 Author Share Posted August 28, 2020 Looks like some nasty cells are gonna push through Memphis within the next few hours. Smaller line of storms but they are packing some serious rainfall. Wind has picked up markedly past 90 minutes Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted August 28, 2020 Author Share Posted August 28, 2020 Lot of TORs flying to our south and west. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Yes another tornado reported near Oxford, Miss this morning. Had an MD before 7am Central, even though low watch probs. Still we're getting started early and often. 13Z SPC talking possible ENH upgrade for tornadoes. Paraphrase: Inland decay phase can be the more prolific tornado day. Wind fields spread out into better CAPE environment. Set up does remind me of the Harvey tornado I documented in northwest Alabama. Well it almost documented me, ha.Y'all it's Free for all Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Looks like west and central valley areas have gotten some rowdy weather from this thing so far. Having a very gusty but light shower right now near Lafollette. Was hoping it would arrive after high school football but looks like it will arrive here in earnest around kick off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 The UAH SWIRLL sounding above hinted at action. Oh yeah, the Cullman AL area got action. Cullman, anyone surprised? I visited for my first time Friday. Cullman sits on a low plateau; but yes, it's elevated which helps inflow winds. HSV NWS surveyed a couple weak tornadoes near West Point and Eva, which is a track just northwest of Cullman. I followed that storm but did not see the tornadoes. Happy to report excellent other structure and a good chase. Heavily doctored photo looking west from Falkville, AL. I still do not discern a tornado, but it's a heck of a Dixie supercell. Believe the dark spot is looking sideways through a C-shaped heavy rain band. If it's a funnel one cannot confirm it's down. Pancakes just northeast of Cullman at Cornerstone (church) Revival Center. Pastor is really nice. We chatted about the storm of course. The storm was so good he forgot to ask me about Jesus! I told him the church is OK and any rotation will pass to the northwest. Little did I know a tornado was indeed in progress near Eva. Barber pole between Cullman and Arab, AL as I took AL Hwy 69 toward home. Reminds me of an old friend US-69 in Kansas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 The UAH SWIRLL sounding above hinted at action. Oh yeah, the Cullman AL area got action. Cullman, anyone surprised? I visited for my first time Friday. Cullman sits on a low plateau; but yes, it's elevated which helps inflow winds. HSV NWS surveyed a couple weak tornadoes near West Point and Eva, which is a track just northwest of Cullman. I followed that storm but did not see the tornadoes. Happy to report excellent other structure and a good chase. Heavily doctored photo looking west from Falkville, AL. I still do not discern a tornado, but it's a heck of a Dixie supercell. Believe the dark spot is looking sideways through a C-shaped heavy rain band. If it's a funnel one cannot confirm it's down. Pancakes just northeast of Cullman at Cornerstone (church) Revival Center. Pastor is really nice. We chatted about the storm of course. The storm was so good he forgot to ask me about Jesus! I told him the church is OK and any rotation will pass to the northwest. Little did I know a tornado was indeed in progress near Eva. Barber pole between Cullman and Arab, AL as I took AL Hwy 69 toward home. Reminds me of an old friend US-69 in Kansas. Cullman Co literally has a target on its back. That place has taken a beating the last 10 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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