Stormlover74 Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I think there's an index that ranks seasons by "snowfall quality" and the severity of winter cold....2014-15, 2010-11, 2002-03, 1995-96, 1977-78, 1960-61, 1947-48, 1933-34, 1917-18 and 1898-99 are near the top of that list. 2015 was great despite no huge storms (fu juno) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 2015 was great despite no huge storms (fu juno) yeah and fu Boston too lol It's the first time I've ever seen freezing drizzle on the east end of LI on an onshore wind....the water temps were THAT cold! We were in the single digits for lows on the last day of Feb, wow. And had a big snow in March..... The only other time I remember such big late season cold was back in 2017-18 I think it was when we had the four big noreasters in March and then had a significant snowstorm in early April to boot? If we could've superimposed that March-April to Jan-Feb, it would have outdone all the other winters of the decade..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 11 minutes ago, uncle W said: I like snow in December...I like it better if it stays around for a while...the snow depth table below shows snow depth for each day...my favorite years were from 1959-1970...8 of 12 years had snow on the ground Christmas day... the best snow depth years for Newark NJ in December... December.....dates....t = trace falling....T = trace on the ground...trace is less than 0.5"... season..01.02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09.10.11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25.26..27..28..29..30..31 2017...….0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....4...4.....1....0....t.....2....1....1....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....1....1 2013...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....0....2....1....0....0....4....3....2....4....3....2....2....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0 2010...….0....0....0....0....0.....t....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...18..24..20..16..14..13 2009...….0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....7....8....6....6....5....5....4....1....0....0....0....0....2 2008...….0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....2....1....0....5....3....4....2....2....2....0....0....0....0....0....0....T 2005...….0....t.....0....4....2....1....T....T....6....5....4....4....3....3....3....T.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T 2003...….t.....T....0....0....8..16..14..11,,,,9....6....0....0....t.....4....1....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 2002...….T....0....t.....0....7....7....6....4....2....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....4....2....1....T....0....0....0 2000...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....1....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...14..12 season..01.02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09.10.11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25.26..27..28..29..30..31 1995...….T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....T....T....T....T....1....1.....T....T....0....7..10....9....9....5....4....4....3....3....3....2....2....2 1990...….0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....8....4....2....0 1980...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....t.....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....1....1....1....1....1....1....T....0....0 1979...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....3....4....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1976...….0....T....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....5....4....6....5....4....4 1975...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....t....T....2....2....1....1....0....0....0....0....t.....0 1973...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....2....2....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t 1970...….0....0....0....0....t.....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....t.....0....0....0....0....T....2....2....1....1....2....1....1....T....T....T 1969...….1....T....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....T....T....0....T....T.....t......t.....t.....t....T....3....6....5....5....4....3....2 1968...….0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....T....3....3....2....1....T....T.....0....1....0....t.....0....0....2....2....0....0....0 1966...….0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....1....0....0....0....0....0....T....2....1....1....7....8....7....6....6....4....1....1 1964...….0....0....0....0....0....1....T....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....T.....0....0....T....0....3....3....2....2....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1963...….t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....2....1....1....1....1....T....1....1....1....1....1....7....7....5....4....3....3....3....3....3 1962...….0....0....0....0....0....t.....T....0....2....1....1....1....1....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....3....4....3....2....3....3....T....T....T.....T....T 1961...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....2....T....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....6..10....8....6....5....2....2....2....2 1960...….t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....4..20..19..17..15..13....8....6....6....6....5....2....2....2....2....2....1....1....3....2....1 1959...….0....0....0....0....0....0....2....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....3....5....4....3....3....2....1....0....2....T....0 season..01.02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09.10.11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25.26..27..28..29..30..31 1958...….0....0....t.....0....0....t.....t.....1....4....2....2....1....1....1....1....T....T....0,,,,0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1957...….0....0....1..12....9....8....4....0....0....t.....3....3....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1955...….0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....T....0....0....3....3....2....0....0....0....0....T....T.....T 1951...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....t.....4....2....2....2....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....t.....0....0 1950...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0.…T....3....3....2....1....T....0 1948...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....3....2....0....0...13..10..10...6....3....3....3....3....3....2....1....0....3 1947...….0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....1....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....1....1...26..20..19..17..15..15 1945...….1....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....t.....0....T....2....2....1....1....1...10...7....6....6....6....5....4....0....0....T....2....T....0 Yep we have significantly better and longer snowcover when it snows in December....... 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uncle W Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 best January's at Newark...1948 is the only year with at least 1" on the ground every day... January,,, year......01..02..03..04..05..06.07..08..09.10..11..12..13..14.15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 2018......T....0....0....8....7....7....6....6....5....3....1....0....0....0....0....0....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....1....0 2017......0....t.....0....0....T....2....6....5....3....2....0....0....0....1....1,,,,T....0....0....0....0....0....0..,..t.....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....1 2016......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....0....0....1....1....T....0....0....T...24..20..19..17..14..10...9....8....7 2015......0....0....1....0....0....1....1....1....1....1....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....t.....t.....5....3....6....8....7....6....6....6 2014......0....3....9....8....7....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....t.....0....0...10..10...7....6....5....5....4....1....1....1....1 2011......9....6....3....1....T....T....2....2....2....1....3....9....7....7....5....5....4....6....4....2....6....4....4....4....4...15..22..20..18..17..15 2009......0....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....t.....2....1....1....1....T....1....1....T....2....2....2....2....2....1....T....0....0....0....3....1....T.....0 2005......0....0....0....0....T....0....t.....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....1....T....1....1....1....9...11..10..10...8....8....8....7....7....7 2004......0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....t.....T....t.....2....6....5....4....4....3....3....2....2....2....2....2....2....7....9....8....6....6 2001.....10...8....7....7....7....7....6....6....5....4....4....3....2....1....T....T....0....t.....0....T....4....4....3....2....T....0....T....0....0....0....0 2000......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....t.....0....0....0....2....2....1....1....T....7....5....4....4....3....4....4 year......01..02..03..04..05..06.07..08..09.10..11..12..13..14.15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1996......1....2....3....3....3....3...21..31..31..31..31..29..16..14...9....9....8....7....4....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....1 1994......3....T....1....3....1....1....3....3....3....3....3....6....6....5....4....4....4....3....3....3....3....3....3....3....2....8....7....7....1....1....T 1991......0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....T....1....T....6....3....2....2....2....1....0....t.....0....0....2....2....2....1....T....T....T....T.....0....0....t 1988......T....0....1....5....3....3....3....9....9....8....7....7....6....5....5....5....4....3....T....t.....0....t.....t.....0....3....3....3....3....2....2....1 1987......4....3....3....2....1....T....T....T....0....T.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....1....1....1...12..12..10..10..14..14..13..11...9....5 1985......0....0....0....t.....3....2....T....0....0....0....1....1....T....T....T.....0....3....3....2....2....2....2....2....1....1....T....T....T....T....T....T 1984......0....T....T....0....0....t.....0....t.....0....3....5....4....3....4....3....2....2....5....8....7....7....6....5....5....4....2....1....T....T....1....1 1983......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....1....2....1....1....1....1....1....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1982......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....6....8....9....9....8....8....8....7....6....6....8....6....6....6....5....5....4....4....3 1981......T....T....1....1....1....2....5....3....3....3....3....3....3....3....3....2....2....2....2....2....T.....0....t.....t....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 year......01..02..03..04..05..06.07..08..09.10..11..12..13..14.15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1979......0....0....t.....0....T....4....5....0....0....0....0....1....T....0....0....0....2....1....1....1....T....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0.....t 1978......2....2....2....1....1....T....0....0....T....T....T....T.....4....3....3....3....5....3....4...17..14..14..13..12..11...T....T....T....T....T.....T 1977......4....3....3....2....2....1....3....3....2....3....T....T....T....4....5....5....5....5....4....3....1....1....1....2....2....1....1....1....T....T.....T 1976......1....T....T....t.....0....0....0....T....0....0....2....2....1....0....t.....0....0....0....0....1....4....4....4....3....3....1....0....0....0....0....0 1974......0....0....t.....1....1....T....T....T....5....5....5....4....4....3....3....3....2....2....1....T....T....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1971......7....7....6....4....1....T....T....T....T....T....T.....0....T....2....2....1....1....1....1....1....1....1....T....3....3....T....T....T....T.....T....T 1970......2....2....2....2....2....3....5....5....5....4....4....6....6....5....5....5....4....3....3....5....6....6....5....4....4....3....2....2....1....T....T 1968......3....3....3....3....2....4....4....4....4....4....4....3....3....2....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 year......01..02..03..04..05..06.07..08..09.10..11..12..13..14.15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1966......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....T....T....T....3....2....2....1....2....2....2....7....7 1965......0....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....0....8....8....5....3....3....3....8....7....6....5....4....3....3....1....3....2....2....2....2....1....1....1 1964......3....2....2....T....T.....T....0....0....0....0....0....1...13..13..12..11...9....6....5....3....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....0....T....T 1963......T....T....0.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....T....T....T....4....6....5....5....6....6 1961......T....T....T....T....T.....T.....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....1....3....3....T....6...13..13..12..11..11..11..14..14..14..12..10...9 1958......0....0....0....0....0....0....4....4....4....3....3....2....2....2....T....2....2....1....T....T....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0 1957......t.....0....0....0....0....T....1....0....T....T....0....0....t.....t.....2....4....3....2....2....1....T....0....0....0....1....T....2....T....T.....0.....t 1954......t.....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....t.....3....7....8....6....5....5....5....4....4....4....3....1....T....T....T....T....T.....0....t.....0....t.....0 1948.....14..11...8....7....7....7....7....6....5....4....4....3....5....4....3....3....4....5....5....4....4....4....4....9....9....9....8....8....7....7....7 1947......4....4....2....1....3....2....1....T....T....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………................................ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 I wonder if the EPS weeklies will be included with the free Euro maps in October? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: October has shown itself to be the month where we get our strongest TC (at least over the last 15 years or so). Not that most sane people want that to impact them. if i wanted sunny cool temps i would live in san diego i want some stormy weather // this weather is boring... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, uncle W said: best January's at Newark...1948 is the only year with at least 1" on the ground every day... January,,, year......01..02..03..04..05..06.07..08..09.10..11..12..13..14.15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 2018......T....0....0....8....7....7....6....6....5....3....1....0....0....0....0....0....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....1....0 2017......0....t.....0....0....T....2....6....5....3....2....0....0....0....1....1,,,,T....0....0....0....0....0....0..,..t.....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....1 2016......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....0....0....1....1....T....0....0....T...24..20..19..17..14..10...9....8....7 2015......0....0....1....0....0....1....1....1....1....1....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....t.....t.....5....3....6....8....7....6....6....6 2014......0....3....9....8....7....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....t.....0....0...10..10...7....6....5....5....4....1....1....1....1 2011......9....6....3....1....T....T....2....2....2....1....3....9....7....7....5....5....4....6....4....2....6....4....4....4....4...15..22..20..18..17..15 2009......0....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....t.....2....1....1....1....T....1....1....T....2....2....2....2....2....1....T....0....0....0....3....1....T.....0 2005......0....0....0....0....T....0....t.....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....1....T....1....1....1....9...11..10..10...8....8....8....7....7....7 2004......0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....t.....T....t.....2....6....5....4....4....3....3....2....2....2....2....2....2....7....9....8....6....6 2001.....10...8....7....7....7....7....6....6....5....4....4....3....2....1....T....T....0....t.....0....T....4....4....3....2....T....0....T....0....0....0....0 2000......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....t.....0....0....0....2....2....1....1....T....7....5....4....4....3....4....4 year......01..02..03..04..05..06.07..08..09.10..11..12..13..14.15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1996......1....2....3....3....3....3...21..31..31..31..31..29..16..14...9....9....8....7....4....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....1 1994......3....T....1....3....1....1....3....3....3....3....3....6....6....5....4....4....4....3....3....3....3....3....3....3....2....8....7....7....1....1....T 1991......0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....T....1....T....6....3....2....2....2....1....0....t.....0....0....2....2....2....1....T....T....T....T.....0....0....t 1988......T....0....1....5....3....3....3....9....9....8....7....7....6....5....5....5....4....3....T....t.....0....t.....t.....0....3....3....3....3....2....2....1 1987......4....3....3....2....1....T....T....T....0....T.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....1....1....1...12..12..10..10..14..14..13..11...9....5 1985......0....0....0....t.....3....2....T....0....0....0....1....1....T....T....T.....0....3....3....2....2....2....2....2....1....1....T....T....T....T....T....T 1984......0....T....T....0....0....t.....0....t.....0....3....5....4....3....4....3....2....2....5....8....7....7....6....5....5....4....2....1....T....T....1....1 1983......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....1....2....1....1....1....1....1....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1982......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....6....8....9....9....8....8....8....7....6....6....8....6....6....6....5....5....4....4....3 1981......T....T....1....1....1....2....5....3....3....3....3....3....3....3....3....2....2....2....2....2....T.....0....t.....t....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 year......01..02..03..04..05..06.07..08..09.10..11..12..13..14.15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1979......0....0....t.....0....T....4....5....0....0....0....0....1....T....0....0....0....2....1....1....1....T....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0.....t 1978......2....2....2....1....1....T....0....0....T....T....T....T.....4....3....3....3....5....3....4...17..14..14..13..12..11...T....T....T....T....T.....T 1977......4....3....3....2....2....1....3....3....2....3....T....T....T....4....5....5....5....5....4....3....1....1....1....2....2....1....1....1....T....T.....T 1976......1....T....T....t.....0....0....0....T....0....0....2....2....1....0....t.....0....0....0....0....1....4....4....4....3....3....1....0....0....0....0....0 1974......0....0....t.....1....1....T....T....T....5....5....5....4....4....3....3....3....2....2....1....T....T....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1971......7....7....6....4....1....T....T....T....T....T....T.....0....T....2....2....1....1....1....1....1....1....1....T....3....3....T....T....T....T.....T....T 1970......2....2....2....2....2....3....5....5....5....4....4....6....6....5....5....5....4....3....3....5....6....6....5....4....4....3....2....2....1....T....T 1968......3....3....3....3....2....4....4....4....4....4....4....3....3....2....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 year......01..02..03..04..05..06.07..08..09.10..11..12..13..14.15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1966......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....T....T....T....3....2....2....1....2....2....2....7....7 1965......0....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....0....8....8....5....3....3....3....8....7....6....5....4....3....3....1....3....2....2....2....2....1....1....1 1964......3....2....2....T....T.....T....0....0....0....0....0....1...13..13..12..11...9....6....5....3....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....0....T....T 1963......T....T....0.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....T....T....T....4....6....5....5....6....6 1961......T....T....T....T....T.....T.....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....1....3....3....T....6...13..13..12..11..11..11..14..14..14..12..10...9 1958......0....0....0....0....0....0....4....4....4....3....3....2....2....2....T....2....2....1....T....T....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0 1957......t.....0....0....0....0....T....1....0....T....T....0....0....t.....t.....2....4....3....2....2....1....T....0....0....0....1....T....2....T....T.....0.....t 1954......t.....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....t.....3....7....8....6....5....5....5....4....4....4....3....1....T....T....T....T....T.....0....t.....0....t.....0 1948.....14..11...8....7....7....7....7....6....5....4....4....3....5....4....3....3....4....5....5....4....4....4....4....9....9....9....8....8....7....7....7 1947......4....4....2....1....3....2....1....T....T....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………................................ 2011..wow..most continuous snowcover in my lifetime..What kept in around?..no rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I think there's an index that ranks seasons by "snowfall quality" and the severity of winter cold....2014-15, 2010-11, 2002-03, 1995-96, 1977-78, 1960-61, 1947-48, 1933-34, 1917-18 and 1898-99 are near the top of that list. These were my favorite seasons for snowstorm quality.... 17-18 15-16 10-11 02-03 95-96 82-83 81-82 77-78 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 Smoke aloft coming fast across PA mid afternoon. Images of what it might look like for the bands 8P tonight, 8A Wednesday and 8A Thursday. NYC should see the back edge of this mornings band just to the east now, while cirrus from Teddy is along the CT River. So the 8A Thursday image suggests more smoke aloft for later Thu or Fri. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 For the October discussion topic... Definitely colder or much colder than normal the first week per multiple models-ensembles. Additionally... 12z/22 ensembles suggest a slight covering of snow is possible either in the Catskills or Adirondacks sometime between Oct 4-6? I guess if that occurs that's not a good sign for our 20-21 winter being snowier than normal? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 I can see the very clearly defined edge of Hurricane Teddy looking east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 40 minutes ago, nycwinter said: if i wanted sunny cool temps i would live in san diego i want some stormy weather // this weather is boring... Having a couple of weeks of nice clear skies and low humidity isn't going to kill you lol, the stormy weather will be back soon enough. Better to get this now rather than in the middle of winter when cold air sometimes gets wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 14 minutes ago, wdrag said: For the October discussion topic... Definitely colder or much colder than normal the first week per multiple models-ensembles. Additionally... 12z/22 ensembles suggest a slight covering of snow is possible either in the Catskills or Adirondacks sometime between Oct 4-6? I guess if that occurs that's not a good sign for our 20-21 winter being snowier than normal? Colder than the weather we just went through, Walt? 30 degrees this morning at MPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 24 minutes ago, wdrag said: For the October discussion topic... Definitely colder or much colder than normal the first week per multiple models-ensembles. Additionally... 12z/22 ensembles suggest a slight covering of snow is possible either in the Catskills or Adirondacks sometime between Oct 4-6? I guess if that occurs that's not a good sign for our 20-21 winter being snowier than normal? I remember three la nina years that had a cold October...1964, 1974 and 1988...64-65 had a decent winter but not the other two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: As best as you're gonna get. I wonder if the early cool down and rather dry conditions will trigger early foliage this year. I'm already seeing colors popping up. Yeah I'm seeing things start to slightly change as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 February snow depth at newark...... year......01..02..03..04..05.06..07..08..09..10..11.12..13..14..15..16..17.18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 2017......T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....8....6....5....3....2....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...….. 2015......5....8....8....8....7....7....7....6....6....6....6....6....5....5....6....5....8....7....6....5....9....8....5....5....5....4....4....4...…... 2014......T....T....8....7...10...9....8....8....9....9....9....8...17..18..17..16..16..16..15..13..10...9....4....1....T....T.....t.....0...…... 2013......t.....T....T....0....T....T....0....5...10...7....5.....2....t.....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....0...…... 2011.....15..15..14..13..13..11...9....6....5....4....3....2....1....1....0....0....0....0....t.....0....3....2....1....t.....0....0....0....0...…... 2010......0....1....2....0....t.....T....0....0....T...13..11...8....8....7....6....8....7....7....6....2....0....t.....t......0....7...12...9....6...…... 2008......0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....3....2....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....7....4....3....3....T....0....0....1.... 2007......0....t.....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....T....3....3....2....2....1....1....1....T.....0....0....0....2....2....1....T...…... 2006......0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....3...20..14..10...9....4....1....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T...…... 2005......7....6....5....5....4....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....2....5....3....1....4....6....6....1....6...….. 2003......0....0....0....0....t.....t.....6....5....4....4....3....3....3....3....2....5...22..23..19..15..13..10...5....2....2....1....1....1...…... 2000......2....2....4....4....4....3....2....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....3....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0... year......01..02..03..04..05.06..07..08..09..10..11.12..13..14..15..16..17.18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 1996......T....1....7....7....6....5....4....4....1....0....0....t.....0....2....t.....0....9....9....5....3....2....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0... 1995......0....0....0....9....5....5....5....4....4....4....2....T....T....T....T....T.....T....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....1....T....0...……... 1994......T....T....T....T....T.....T....T....9...10...9...18..18..17..15..15..13..10..10...9....6....1....T....2....1....1....2....1....T...……. 1993......0....t.....0....t.....0....3....3....3....0....0....0....3....1....1....0....1....0....0....0....0....4....4....2....1....0....0....T....T...……. 1987......5....4....3....2....1....T....0....0....T....T.....T....2....2....2....1....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....4....1....T....0....0....0...….. 1986......T....0....0....2....1....0....6....7....5....4....8....7....5....5....5....4....4....2....T.....0....0....0....t.....T....T....0....0....0...…... 1985......1....3....3....3....6....6....6....6....6....6....5....3....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...…... 1983......0....0....0....t.....0....3....5....5....4....4...17..19..17..11...9....8....6....3....1....T.....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...…... year......01..02..03..04..05.06..07..08..09..10..11.12..13..14..15..16..17.18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 1979......0....0....0....0....0....0....6....6....4....4....4....4....4....4....3....3....3....3...19..19..15...7....3....1....T....T....T....T...………. 1978......T....T....T....T....T....18..19..17..15..13..12..11...9....8....8....6....5....4....4....4....4....3....3....3....4....2....1....1...…....... 1977......T....T....1....1....4....3....2....2....1....1....T....T....T.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0................. 1976......0....2....2....1....2....4....4....4....2....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0... 1975......t.....0....0....T....3....2....t.....0....T....T....t.....9....8....6....5....3....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0......... 1974......0....T....T....1....1....1....1....5....5....4....3....2....T....T....0....0....T.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....2....1....T....0........ 1972......T....T....T....0....0....3....3....2....2....2....1....T....0....0....0....0.....1....T....3....2....2....1....4....4....2....1....T....T....0.... 1969......T....0....t.....T....T.....0....0....t....13..14..13..11...9....8....8....7....5....4....4....4....4....3....3....3....2....1....1....1........... 1967......T....t.....0....t.....0....4...15..14..12..13..12...9....7....6....4....T....T....2....T....T.....1....0....3....1....1....T....T....1........ 1966......7....9....8....6....5....4....3....3....2....1....T....0....0....0....0....1....0....0....T....T.....0....0....0....3....4....3....2....T....... 1964......T....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....T....3....2....2....T....T.....1....1....T....T....6....5....3....2....1....T....T.....T....T....3....3.... 1963......5....5....3....3....2....2....T....T....T....T.....T....0....t.....T....T....0....0....0....3....2....T....T.....0....T....T....T....T.....t...……. year......01..02..03..04..05.06..07..08..09..10..11.12..13..14..15..16..17.18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 1962......t.....2....2....1....0....0....0....0....4....3....2....2....1....4....2....1....1....0....T....T....1....1.....T....t.....t.....t.....0....0...…... 1961......7....7...14..26..25..21..16..12..11...9....8....7....7....5....4....4....3....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t...……. 1958......1....T....t.....T....0....0....1....1....T.....0....0....t.....0....0....4...13..13...9....8....6....6....5....3....2....1....T....T....0...... 1957......8....6....3....2....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....T....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0..... 1955......1....4....2....2....1....1....0....0....0....0....2....2....1....1....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.…0....0....0....0 1948......7....5....6...11..11..11..10..10..10...9....9....8....7....5....4....3....1....T....T....T.....0....3....2....1....T....0....0....t.....0 1947......0....t.....0....1....1....1....T....7....6....3....1....T....T....T....T....T.....T....0....0....8...11..10...9....8....6....5....3....3..... 1946......0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....6....5....4....4....3....3....2....1....T....T...…. 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donsutherland1 Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 After an unseasonably cool start, a noticeable warmup commenced. Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the lower 70s in many parts of the region. High temperatures included: Allentown: 73° Baltimore: 73° Harrisburg: 75° Islip: 70° New York City: 71° Newark: 75° Philadelphia: 74° Washington, DC: 73° Westhampton recorded a daily and monthly record low temperature of 32°. The previous daily record was 37°, which was set in 1962. The previous September record was 33°, which was set on September 24, 1998 and tied on September 29-30, 2000 and September 18, 2013. This was also Westhampton's earliest freeze on record. The prior record was October 2, 1998, which was tied on October 2, 2009. Both cases saw a minimum temperature of 32°. Afterward, temperatures will likely remain at generally above normal levels for the remainder of September. A cool shot is possible to open October. Phoenix has an implied 83% probability of recording just its 13th September on record with a mean temperature of 90° or above. The most recent such occurrence was 2018 with a mean temperature of 91.8°. Phoenix will very likely record its hottest June-September period on record with a four-month mean temperature of 95.2°-95.4°. The existing record is 93.9°, which was set in 2011. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn. The SOI was +12.72. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.183. On September 21, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.999 (RMM). The September 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.878. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.4°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 9/22 EWR: 75 LGA: 74 JFK: 74 New Brnswck: 74 PHL: 74 BLM: 73 ACY: 73 TEB: 73 TTN: 72 NYC: 71 ISP: 70 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Colder than the weather we just went through, Walt? 30 degrees this morning at MPO ECM has similar type cold on 12z guidance while prior runs and ensembles keep the brunt of the cold to the west in the 0ct 1 - oct 5th period with maybe a day of the real chilly air coming in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Reached 73* here. Might try a late season trip to the beach here if winds are light tomorrow. Today's gusts stired up a brush/debris fire at Bay 44th. St. and the BP. As hinted to by the EURO with its favorable BN pressures along EC and back to the eastern GOM we have this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: Teddy looks really nice If only this was further west No. Just no. Moon looks orange/reddish tonight, wildfires smoke? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 44 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Moon looks orange/reddish tonight, wildfires smoke? just a bit of smoke, but it's there, as i could tell driving home with the sun low, large, and more than just a bit dimmer than its usual self, and from some folks posting smoke models. not like it was parts of last week, when i shot some good pictures directly into it. but definitely not at full mast. when i am cruising route 18 in my 2005 toyota camry, you boys better believe i'm looking my big stupid eyes into a big smoky sun. after a long stupid day of my long stupid life it was the only piece of beauty that keeps me giving a shit. give me more smoky sunsets. give me less of anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 This was the 10th coldest 9-16 to 9-22 in NYC. It was also the coldest since 1993. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 16 to Sep 22 Missing Count 1 1875-09-22 54.7 0 2 1871-09-22 55.8 0 3 1990-09-22 59.5 0 4 1929-09-22 59.6 0 5 1956-09-22 59.7 0 6 1993-09-22 59.8 0 7 1962-09-22 60.3 0 8 1879-09-22 60.4 0 9 1873-09-22 60.7 0 10 2020-09-22 60.9 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 The last 8 days of September are averaging 74degs. Make it 69degs., or +3.5. Month to date is -1.0[68.4]. September should end at +0.6[68.6]. The Tropics: 43.9N 62.9W-Teddy turns into Nova Scotia Lox within hours. 60*(51%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 59* at 6:30am. 68* by 11am. 71* by Noon. 73* at 1pm, equal to yesterday's high here but rather breezy again. 80* by 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 EPS/GEFS continue to signal strong cool down 1st week of Oct with possibly some rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: EPS/GEFS continue to signal strong cool down 1st week of Oct with possibly some rains. The record Western Ridge just won’t let up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 14 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Colder than the weather we just went through, Walt? 30 degrees this morning at MPO Cant promise colder but it seems the 850 temps cold be colder...if its a mixed environment or LE clouds or offshore storm passages, then the clouds keep the mins up. I kind of think this pattern has a killing freeze in it for the suburbs (1 night) but I could be overdoing it. It seems 850 temps and sfc temps in the Ohio Valley will be 5 to 10 below normal and I think that at least one day should be colder than any to date in NYC this Sept. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 47 degrees this morning, fifth morning in a row in the 40s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Following up: This is really for the first week of October. NAEFS prob of a colder than normal start to the month (Not the whole month-first week should be colder than normal but this doesn't say anything about the last two weeks of the month). The trough in the east seems to live beyond the 8th. Also added the chance of 2" of rain in that same period (second slide) and finally the chance of 4 tenths of an inch. As you can see the bullish 00z/23 op GFS on a storm up the east coast the first week of October is NAEFS ensembled well to the east of the East Coast. However, the coldest weather of the season may occur this first week of October, including a smidge of snow in the Adirondacks or Catskills and a chance of a killing freeze in the interior suburbs "if" we get 1 cloud free light wind night. Daytime highs have a better chance of being the coolest of the season for 1 or 2 days in this period. Finally... I don't like this pattern for the sw USA fire danger..as posted just bit earlier by blue wave... very strong ridge in CA next week... could be setting up for increased fire danger there. Need to follow the sw USA topics - NWS guidance on this. Already in the short term... WY has increased fire danger by the NWS. 658A/23 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Morning thoughts... Much warmer weather has returned. Today will be mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. The temperature will likely top out mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 81° The temperature will likely remain above normal through the remainder of this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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