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September 2020 wx discussion


forkyfork
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The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.      Make it 67degs., or +1.5.

All Ensembles have no 80's, the GFS OP has 7 incoming!  lol.

53*(55%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.     52* at 6:30am.     51* at 7am.      55* by 9am.   56* at 9:15am.    57* at 9:30am.     58* at 9:45am.     59* at 10am.

The Tropics:   28.7N 96.7W-inland, no huff or puff-just rain,  38.5N 63.2W-no Teddy Bear is he-but no one to bother.     

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Wantage NJ Tue am: second consecutive frosty morning..this one more extensive than yesterday. Smoke aloft-albeit thin, is visible and will thicken from west to east late today before passing south of the NYC forum Wednesday...though it looks like a bit more to come toward the end of the workweek. Added one graphic for 2P this afternoon to show the approaching band. 

Ran some trajectories and not too excited about BETA contribution here, but added the forward trajectory from 500meters vicinity HOU beginning 00z/22 using the 00Z GFS ensemble. NAEFS has very low prob of >2" here by Oct 1, so it will rain and am hoping the WPC D7 totals are close... most or all of it between Sunday-Tuesday in possibly three primary bands (27-29).  

Will monitor NAEFS cold signal for the first week of October. This 00z/22 cycle has a high probability for colder than normal the first week of October. 

Hopefully many here noticed the smoke aloft yesterday, especially NYC longitude eastward. Was quite noticeable to my east forenoon Monday. 651A/22

Screen Shot 2020-09-22 at 6.35.44 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-09-22 at 7.59.10 AM.png

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11 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC has three days in a row with a morning low temp of 50 or lower...the last time that happened was 2000?

NYC just extended it to 4 days with the low of 49° so far today. The streak came several days earlier than 2000. 

9-19....50°

9-20....50°

9-21....49°

9-22....49°

2000-09-26 54 50 52.0 -12.1 13 0 0.33 0.0 0
2000-09-27 68 47 57.5 -6.2 7 0 0.00 0.0 0
2000-09-28 67 49 58.0 -5.3 7 0 0.00 0.0 0
2000-09-29 59 43 51.0 -11.9 14 0 0.00 0.0 0
2000-09-30 65 48 56.5 -6.0 8 0 0.00 0.0 0

 

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Morning thoughts...

Today started off with very chilly and, in some cases, near record low temperatures. Minimum temperatures included: Albany: 32°; Allentown: 36°; Bridgeport: 43°; Boston: 45°; Islip: 43°; New York City: 48°; Newark: 46°; Philadelphia: 47°; Poughkeepsie: 33°; Providence: 45°; Westhampton: 32°; and, White Plains: 42°. Under bright sunshine, a noticeable warmup should commence today. The temperature will likely top out mainly in the lower 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°
Newark: 74°
Philadelphia: 73°

Above normal temperatures will likely continue through the remainder of this week.

 

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3 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Can’t stand this weather if it’s going to be cold let it Snow give me 95 and humid or a blizzard no in between which we’ll probably have this whole winter. 55 and sunny in midtown

Its only September

This weather is beautiful 

Hoodie and sweatpants weather

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Coldest night/morning here at 37.5 and likely the coolest readings through at least Oct 4th.   Clouds from Teddy reaching LI and offshore NJ.  Warmup underway as breach the 70s today and get near ot into the 80s Wed -  Fri.  Weekend may be more cloudy thh an initially though and perhaps wetter too - will need to see.  By early next week  Mon  - Tue (9/28 / 29) front and trough approaching but ahead of that warmer humid and rainy .  Loos like the real cool air arrives Oct 4 but may the brunt of the cool/cold may stay west and not match this recent cool in the area other than a day.  Warmup quickly behind the trough towards the week of the 5th.

9/22 - 9/29 : Warmer than normal

9/30 - 10/3 : cooler

10/4 - 10/6 : Much cooler

10/7 : warmer times ahead.

 

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

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