MJO812 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 27 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Those water temps keeping south bk warmer I hate my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Mostly sunny 55, low was 49, same as yday. Not so bad in direct sun but I could do without the 28 dewpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 55 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Lets hope we see this in December and not the opposite We’ll see if we can get some early hints from the MJO in October. The 18-19 and 19-20 below normal snowfall La Niña background state winters featured the October MJO convection focused in the Indian Ocean. Our snowier 16-17 and 17-18 La Niña winters had the October MJO in the Maritime Continent phases. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 58/33 from a low of 40.4 (no frost). 36 more hours of this very cool airmass before moderation on Tue. Much warmer Wed - Fri (low 80s in the warmer spots). Flow may go predominantly more southerly later next weekend into next week (9/27). Deep trough into the GL, MW, MV and swinging through the southeast and east coast towards the beginning of next month but moderated airmass wont be nearly as cool as this for next 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Did not fall into the 40’s last night, surprisingly. ISP hit 48, I hit 50. Yesterday both hit 49. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Summer freezes? from Rutgers weather station Summer freezes are uncommon but not unprecedented at some NJ locations. Today marks the second consecutive day with low temperatures at or below freezing at several Rutgers NJ Weather Network stations. Yesterday, September 19, Walpack (Sussex County) fell to 29°, with Sandyston (Sussex) and Pequest (Warren) both down to 31°. This morning, Walpack bottomed out at 31°, with Pequest and Basking Ridge (Somerset) each at 32°. Walpack was last down to freezing on June 1, leaving this cold-air drainage prone valley site in northwest Jersey with a short 109 day growing season (days between last spring and first fall freeze). Meanwhile, several coastal stations had their last freeze on March 1, thus have had a 203 day growing season....and counting. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: We’ll see if we can get some early hints from the MJO in October. The 18-19 and 19-20 below normal snowfall La Niña background state winters featured the October MJO convection focused in the Indian Ocean. Our snowier 16-17 and 17-18 La Niña winters had the October MJO in the Maritime Continent phases. Currently the convection isn’t where you want it if you want a snowy Niña 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: Currently the convection isn’t where you want it if you want a snowy Niña No, it’s definitely not and the ongoing huge wildfires out west aren’t what you want either. They are altering the stratosphere in a way that supports +AO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: No, it’s definitely not and the ongoing huge wildfires out west aren’t what you want either. They are altering the stratosphere in a way that supports +AO The two biggest factors for nyc winters are the PV and tropical forcing. We really won’t know what they will look like until December IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Look to go 16 days between measurable precip (as it looks now) Sep 10 - Sep 25/6. We'll see if the rains can get up here next weekend or is it more towards the 28th/29th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Summer freezes? from Rutgers weather station Summer freezes are uncommon but not unprecedented at some NJ locations. Today marks the second consecutive day with low temperatures at or below freezing at several Rutgers NJ Weather Network stations. Yesterday, September 19, Walpack (Sussex County) fell to 29°, with Sandyston (Sussex) and Pequest (Warren) both down to 31°. This morning, Walpack bottomed out at 31°, with Pequest and Basking Ridge (Somerset) each at 32°. Walpack was last down to freezing on June 1, leaving this cold-air drainage prone valley site in northwest Jersey with a short 109 day growing season (days between last spring and first fall freeze). Meanwhile, several coastal stations had their last freeze on March 1, thus have had a 203 day growing season....and counting. June 1st was only down to 46 here. Dont recall that but interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The two biggest factors for nyc winters are the PV and tropical forcing. We really won’t know what they will look like until December IMO. Can’t disagree with that. I do think we will absolutely need the NAO to cooperate this winter. I have a feeling the AO and the PAC side are going to be hostile. You can already see signs of a firehose PAC jet again and we are already dealing with La Niña/-PDO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Can’t disagree with that. I do think we will absolutely need the NAO to cooperate this winter. I have a feeling the AO and the PAC side are going to be hostile. You can already see signs of a firehose PAC jet again and we are already dealing with La Niña/-PDO I wouldn’t expect nao help until it’s 3 days out lol. We haven’t had a -nao in DJF in years. Anybody that says they know one is coming can also sell you a bridge in Brooklyn. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Currently the convection isn’t where you want it if you want a snowy Niña We would need to see all that IO forcing shift east toward the Maritime Continent in October. The big amped up MJO 5 in October 2017 came before the snowy La Niña 17-18 winter. The strong IO MJO 1 in October 2011 preceded the 11-12 La Niña winter. There is some research that early IO forcing can excite the PV like we saw last winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Summer freezes? from Rutgers weather station Summer freezes are uncommon but not unprecedented at some NJ locations. Today marks the second consecutive day with low temperatures at or below freezing at several Rutgers NJ Weather Network stations. Yesterday, September 19, Walpack (Sussex County) fell to 29°, with Sandyston (Sussex) and Pequest (Warren) both down to 31°. This morning, Walpack bottomed out at 31°, with Pequest and Basking Ridge (Somerset) each at 32°. Walpack was last down to freezing on June 1, leaving this cold-air drainage prone valley site in northwest Jersey with a short 109 day growing season (days between last spring and first fall freeze). Meanwhile, several coastal stations had their last freeze on March 1, thus have had a 203 day growing season....and counting. Our growing season now averages around 220 days. Hence the Crepe Myrtle you now see quite often on Long Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Another overnight low of 48 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 52 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Can’t disagree with that. I do think we will absolutely need the NAO to cooperate this winter. I have a feeling the AO and the PAC side are going to be hostile. You can already see signs of a firehose PAC jet again and we are already dealing with La Niña/-PDO My over/under for snowfall for NYC this winter is 15 inches. I dont think we'll see single digits like last season but I dont think we'll get to average either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Look to go 16 days between measurable precip (as it looks now) Sep 10 - Sep 25/6. We'll see if the rains can get up here next weekend or is it more towards the 28th/29th. It will probably be closer to the end of the month. Whats the record for most days between measurable precip.? I recall long dry periods happen quite often when there is a lot of action in the tropics that doesn't make landfall- 1995 had this in August and we had widespread wildfires that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: The strong IO MJO 1 in October 2011 preceded the 11-12 La Niña winter. There is some research that early IO forcing can excite the PV like we saw last winter. Any comment regarding the IOD being totally opposite last year ? Long range models seem to indicate it goes more so negative as the year ends. Nothing like last year with the extreme positive values in December and continuing into Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 On 9/18/2020 at 12:10 PM, SnoSki14 said: It's complicated and Teddy's evolution will play a role in the future pattern. Looks like it'll cause the NAO to go negative. To me it still looks like 80 degrees next weekend. The warm pattern that starts wednesday and goes through next weekend might come to an end a little earlier now though, with that trough swinging in during the early part of the week of the 28th. Hopefully we'll get some decent rain from that too, after this long dry stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 42 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: To me it still looks like 80 degrees next weekend. The warm pattern that starts wednesday and goes through next weekend might come to an end a little earlier now though, with that trough swinging in during the early part of the week of the 28th. Hopefully we'll get some decent rain from that too, after this long dry stretch. One things for sure. We won't see weather this cool again til at least the 2nd week of October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 20, 2020 Author Share Posted September 20, 2020 the euro has no rain for the next week. our precip pattern has become all or nothing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 2 hours ago, frd said: Any comment regarding the IOD being totally opposite last year ? Long range models seem to indicate it goes more so negative as the year ends. Nothing like last year with the extreme positive values in December and continuing into Jan. The relationship that I have been looking at is the October MJO before a La Niña or Niña-like winter. October forcing over the Indian Ocean like last year was followed by less snowfall in NYC. The La Niña winters since 2000 with forcing near the Maritime Continent had better snowfall outcomes for NYC. October composite for a NYC 27.6”to 61.9”seasonal snowfall October composite before a NYC 4.8”to 20.5”snowfall season 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: One things for sure. We won't see weather this cool again til at least the 2nd week of October No question about that. The cooldown for early the week of the 28th doesn't look nearly as cool as what we have right now, and the long range stuff is indicating another warmup in early October. We're gonna be in a mild to warm pattern for quite awhile after tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 45F this morning I dont understand the complaints about the low dews. Feels like the Rockies. Cool, crisp, dry. I wish we had it more often. And the lows are over performing due to the dryness! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Maybe a cool down by the 1st week of October ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Looks like smoke is coming back into the NYC forum... Not as thick for the next couple of days but probably a bit noticeable. HRRRX attached predictions for 8PM tonight, 8AM Monday and 8AM Tuesday. You can see it on the visible images over the midwest...but the initial revisit of smoke aloft arrives from southeast Canada tonight, then the midwest pall during mid week after theTeddy passage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 55 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Maybe a cool down by the 1st week of October ? Models pretty consistent on another big ridge forming out west. Trough axis should be to our west though so could see some heavy rains around that time. Perfect time for a homegrown storm too but we never seem to get that on cue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 57 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Models pretty consistent on another big ridge forming out west. Trough axis should be to our west though so could see some heavy rains around that time. Perfect time for a homegrown storm too but we never seem to get that on cue. This would be a good time for something to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Walt, is that smoke getting sucked in by the TC? Looks like that's why it's coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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