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September 2020 wx discussion


forkyfork
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The next 8 days are averaging 67degs.      Make it 62degs., or -5.0.

52*!(44%RH) here at 6:00am, m. clear.   51* at 6:30am        56* by 11am.        60* by 2pm.      63* by 3pm.     64*(30%RH) by 3:30pm.

No precipitation till the 29th +/- a day, or any model.      EURO now ups the T's for the next 10 days, while the GFS backs them down.

Tropics quieting down:    26N 93W,  25N 59W-still getting stronger, but I am just a strawman, 13N 37W-going nowhere?

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The low of 50° in NYC was the coldest September temperature since 2013. Early Sunday could be a degree or two cooler. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
2020 50 11
2019 52 0
2018 54 0
2017 54 0
2016 54 0
2015 56 0
2014 52 0
2013 47 0
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Morning thoughts...

The coldest air so far this season now covers the region. Today will be partly sunny and very cool for the season. The temperature will likely struggle toward the middle 60s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°
Newark: 65°
Philadelphia: 65°

A warmup will likely commence toward the middle of next week.

In terms of verification, here's how last evening's estimates worked out:

Albany: 36°; Actual: 33°  
Allentown: 41°; Actual: 39°
Boston: 48°; Actual: 46°
Bridgeport: 49°; Actual: 47°
Harrisburg: 47°; Actual: 43°
Hartford: 42°; Actual: 37°
Islip: 48°; Actual: 49°
New York City: 50°; Actual: 50°
Newark: 49°; Actual: 48°
Philadelphia: 50°; Actual: 48°
Poughkeepsie: 40°; Actual: 36°
Providence: 46°; Actual: 45°
White Plains: 44°; Actual: 42°

Average Error: 2.2°

 

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23 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

If it means keeping outdoor spaces open, case counts down, and my kids going to school...hell yes!

Agree 100%. The more fresh air we can keep in buildings the better. Schools right now need to exchange air at least 4 times an hour and that is much harder to do when you have to heat it from freezing. Also, even though indoor dining is open, I still won't do it right now. Had a few coronavirus scares personally both in the spring and this fall. I teach at the university level and have been trying to do some in-person teaching. I love winter and all that, but let's hope we can keep windows open as late as possible.

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Down to 43 last night and up to a chilly but sunny 60 now.  Cool next 3 days as well highlighted here. Warm up by Wed (9/23) and overall warmer near or above normal looks likely to take us to the end of the month.  We'll see how much of the stronger warmth can get into the east timing -wise that looks between Friday (9/25) and Mon (9/28).

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Updated last few days 

 

9/17

EWR: 77
LGA: 77
ACY: 77
TEB: 76
ISP: 76
PHL: 76
New Brnswck: 76
NYC: 75
BLM: 74
JFK: 74
TTN: 74

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

9/18

EWR: 73
JFK: 72
PHL: 72
LGA: 71
TEB: 71
BLM: 71
New brnswck: 71
ACY: 71
NYC: 70
TTN: 70
ISP: 69
 

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20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep, this time of year, hitting 90 or above with that kind of upper level ridging wouldn’t take much

The last warm spell called for 90 a week out but it never materialized. The later it gets the harder to get to those type of temperatures. I will go with 80-85 and be happy with that.

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