September 2020 wx discussion

[JerseyWx]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC could see one of its latest first 50s of the season next week.

Not surprising to see '15 and '16 on there. 

Very curious how this Fall unfolds, and if it'll be more of what we've seen recently.

[doncat]

82/71 temp split today...another 70°+ min which gives me 41 now this season which ties with three other years for most. Rainfall of 0.50" this morning and 1.24" tonight for a 1.74" total.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 2.36" of rain for the day yesterday.

Current temp 74/DP 72/RH 95%

[LibertyBell]

On 9/9/2020 at 9:25 AM, SACRUS said:

That was centered in VA and was a 5.3.  Felt different.  This was more intense loud boom then the shaking.  

 

https://earthquaketrack.com/p/united-states/new-jersey/biggest

 

that was a 5.8 and the only earthquake I've ever experienced- it was intense!  didn't feel this one at all.  Interesting that in 1944 NY also had a 5.8 and a week later a hurricane hit lol

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 71.5degs.      Making this 66.5degs., or 2.5degs. BN.

73*(88%RH) here at 6am, scattered thin overcast.       76* by 1pm.

The GFS even with its +bias is bent on a 55* low near Sept. 15 and again a week later.

Fish Storms are near:  23N 52W,   20N 39W, and possible new  action starting near 12N 23W. [This one keeps turning north earlier and earlier each run and now looks like another stinkin' fish storm]

For reference, Bermuda is at:  32.3N 64.8W, so the first point is about 1,000 miles se of Bermuda.

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Very curious how this Fall unfolds, and if it'll be more of what we've seen recently.

The Euro has Canadian high pressure dominating into late September. So it’s possible that we had an early last 90° of the season back in late August. It would be the earliest last 90° at Newark since 2011.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
Minimum	04-07 (2010)		08-08 (2011)		69
Mean	05-21		09-12		113
Maximum	06-17 (2014)		10-02 (2019)		170
2019	05-26 (2019)	90	10-02 (2019)	96	128
2018	05-02 (2018)	90	09-06 (2018)	98	126
2017	05-17 (2017)	92	09-25 (2017)	90	130
2016	05-25 (2016)	91	09-23 (2016)	90	120
2015	05-25 (2015)	90	09-09 (2015)	91	106
2014	06-17 (2014)	91	09-06 (2014)	95	80
2013	05-30 (2013)	93	09-11 (2013)	96	103
2012	05-28 (2012)	91	09-07 (2012)	90	101
2011	05-30 (2011)	92	08-08 (2011)	93	69
2010	04-07 (2010)	92	09-25 (2010)	90	170

 

[lee59]

So much more comfortable this morning. Looks like the chilliest air of the season over the next week.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

At 8:35 am, considerable clouds covered southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and parts of southeastern New York State. Mainly sunny skies prevailed across parts of Connecticut and eastern Long Island. During the morning, clouds will gradually dissipate across the rest of area. The remainder of the day will be partly to mostly sunny. Temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 70s with a few lower 80s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 76°
Newark: 78°
Philadelphia: 80°

Even cooler air will arrive this weekend. Much of next week will feel like early autumn as the coolest air so far this season moves into the region.

 

[SACRUS]

72/69 / .95 in the bucket.  9/11 - 9/18 overall warmer than normal but no heat and some cooler days.Clouds breaking a bit as winds are more out of the NE.  We dry things out later this morning and afternoon and yet another beautiful Saturday on tap dry and warm  California-like minus the fires and reddish skies.  Sunday - Tue  flow comes around from the SW and likely coming with some clouds with more sun and warmer on Monday (9/14).  Cooler and drier Tue and part of Wed before warmer weather arrives Thu (9/17) and Fri (9/18).  Looks mainly dry this period.

9/19 - 9/23  :cooler air brings the coolest readings since  May / 40s inland cooler spots at night?  Way beyond looks to warm things up the end and close the month above normal. Lets see how models trend with this.  

Tropics watch 9/20 - 9/24 : overnight guidance has mostly in the Atlantic but WAR has been consistently under forecast and plenty of time to watch as prior guidance had a FL threat in the timeframe.

[Brian5671]

35 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

72/69 / .95 in the bucket.  9/11 - 9/18 overall warmer than normal but no heat and some cooler days.Clouds breaking a bit as winds are more out of the NE.  We dry things out later this morning and afternoon and yet another beautiful Saturday on tap dry and warm  California-like minus the fires and reddish skies.  Sunday - Tue  flow comes around from the SW and likely coming with some clouds with more sun and warmer on Monday (9/14).  Cooler and drier Tue and part of Wed before warmer weather arrives Thu (9/17) and Fri (9/18).  Looks mainly dry this period.

9/19 - 9/23  :cooler air brings the coolest readings since  May / 40s inland cooler spots at night?  Way beyond looks to warm things up the end and close the month above normal. Lets see how models trend with this.  

Tropics watch 9/20 - 9/24 : overnight guidance has mostly in the Atlantic but WAR has been consistently under forecast and plenty of time to watch as prior guidance had a FL threat in the timeframe.

Euro has highs in the upper 50's a week from Saturday (overcast)  Would be one of the colder September days in recent memory if that verified

[Santa Claus]

socked in with clouds in CNJ.

weather.gov also has some kind of radar issue.

[ForestHillWx]

Noticed the progged low temps down here in the upper 40s for 9/14-15; sign me up. 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Noticed the progged low temps down here in the upper 40s for 9/14-15; sign me up. 

This is one of those times that a firehose Pacific Jet can help bring a series of cold fronts across the country.

 

[KEITH L.I]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is one of those times that a firehose Pacific Jet can help bring a series of cold fronts across the country.

 

12 GFS shows below normal,with no 90's maybe a day or 2 in the  80's and the rest in the 60's to low 70's.Haven't seen a September that cool in a while

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

12 GFS shows below normal,with no 90's maybe a day or 2 in the  80's and the rest in the 60's to low 70's.Haven't seen a September that cool in a while

It'll still likely average AN but it'll certainly feel much cooler than we're used to with actual BN days. 

Looks like the heat will stay in the west and northern plains for now. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said:

12 GFS shows below normal,with no 90's maybe a day or 2 in the  80's and the rest in the 60's to low 70's.Haven't seen a September that cool in a while

The record breaking ridge centered near the Pacific Northwest Is a big change from the recent September decadal pattern. That area has usually experienced a trough during September. So it will be interesting to see if this temporary or has lasting potential through the fall and winter. This pattern keeps generating very strong highs that roll across the Northern US. 
 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The record breaking ridge centered near the Pacific Northwest Is a big change from the recent September decadal pattern. That area has usually experienced a trough during September. So it will be interesting to see if this temporary or has lasting potential through the fall and winter. This pattern keeps generating very strong highs that roll across the Northern US. 
 

 

 

I was wondering about the winter implications of this sudden switch

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is one of those times that a firehose Pacific Jet can help bring a series of cold fronts across the country.

 

meh if thats the reason then it wont stop us from having another mild winter.  I remember a few years in the late 80s and early 90s were like this (cold falls, mild winters).....

 

[LibertyBell]

is the 99 record high for today from 1983 the latest any of the NYC reporting stations (NYC, EWR, JFK, LGA) have recorded 99+ and did any of them record triple digits?

 

[uncle W]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

is the 99 record high for today from 1983 the latest any of the NYC reporting stations (NYC, EWR, JFK, LGA) have recorded 99+ and did any of them record triple digits?

 

yes for NYC...I went to a wedding in a tuxedo that day...it was brutal being outside...

[donsutherland1]

Sunshine and cool conditions are likely for the start of the weekend. The season's coolest air mass so far could arrive next week. Generally below normal readings could persist into the last week of September.

Beyond that, some of the guidance is hinting at a possible dramatic and sharp decline in the PNA. Such a pattern, should it develop, would favor a return to warmer and perhaps much warmer than normal conditions late in the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn.

The SOI was +1.25.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.599.

On September 10, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.901 (RMM). The September 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.689.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.1°.

Finally,on September 10, Arctic sea ice extent was 3.571 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on 2010-2019 data, the highest 25% bound was 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound was 3.581 million square kilometers. The lowest 10% bound is 3.465 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record. 2020 also has, by far, the second lowest figure on record.

 

[SACRUS]

Clouds held tough

9/11

LGA: 79
ACY: 79
PHL: 79
EWR: 78
ISP: 78
TEB: 77
JFK: 76
NYC: 76
TTN: 76
New Brnswck: 76
BLM: 75

[uncle W]

they dont make September cool spells like they used to...NYC has no hot days this month so far and no real cool morning like low 50's or upper 40's like the 1960's had frequently...I forget the date but 1961 set the record low...1964 broke it...then 1966 broke it again...I remember one year 1963 set a record low and 1964 broke it...both set a record high on the same date two months later...45 used to be the average low for September in NYC...now its closer to 50...

[mweisenfeld]

Anyone have any idea what's happening with the radar tonight?

[donsutherland1]

52 minutes ago, uncle W said:

they dont make September cool spells like they used to...NYC has no hot days this month so far and no real cool morning like low 50's or upper 40's like the 1960's had frequently...I forget the date but 1961 set the record low...1964 broke it...then 1966 broke it again...I remember one year 1963 set a record low and 1964 broke it...both set a record high on the same date two months later...45 used to be the average low for September in NYC...now its closer to 50...

The combination of rising minimum temperatures and decreasing low temperature variability in recent decades, with the warming especially pronounced for the 30-year period ending 2010 or later, has diminished the probability of September minimum temperatures below 50°. Moreover, the recent warming has been occurring during a time when New York City has had a mature urban footprint.

New York City's September Minimum Temperatures:

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, mweisenfeld said:

Anyone have any idea what's happening with the radar tonight?

bird migration

[hudsonvalley21]

27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

bird migration

I’m glad I’m not under one of those flocks.

[rclab]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

they dont make September cool spells like they used to...NYC has no hot days this month so far and no real cool morning like low 50's or upper 40's like the 1960's had frequently...I forget the date but 1961 set the record low...1964 broke it...then 1966 broke it again...I remember one year 1963 set a record low and 1964 broke it...both set a record high on the same date two months later...45 used to be the average low for September in NYC...now its closer to 50...

I don’t remember the 64 date either. It was my first day in college. 48 degree number seems to stick with me. No biggie, even today, for the  NNE folks but a shock, even then, to us UHI citizens. As always .....

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 71degs.        Make it 66degs., or -3.

64*(72%RH) here at 6am, 63* at 6:30am-m. clear.        69* by Noon.        72* by 3pm.

In the Tropics: 25N 82W (new) and getting meaner,   27N 57W,    22N 44W-being absorbed-u r Not of the Body,    12N 31W.

Trough far enough east to protect us from any TS harm the next 16 days?    No rain till the 22nd?      Every model says so.   So it looks that way.

[ForestHillWx]

56 currently. Looks like a glorious stretch of weather coming up.