September 2020 wx discussion

[uofmiami]

44.5 in Muttontown & 45.5 in Syosset for morning lows. 

[lee59]

The Atlantic, outside of sub tropical storm Teddy moving away, is free of any tropical systems. I believe the U.S. mainland has had 4 hurricanes this season and 1 of them was a major. The season is now on the decline (but certainly not over) as we are now approaching cooler weather. I think wind shear really kept a lid on a lot of storms this season.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The record Western Ridge just won’t let up.

 

Awful given the fires there.

[uofmiami]

18 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The Atlantic, outside of sub tropical storm Teddy moving away, is free of any tropical systems. I believe the U.S. mainland has had 4 hurricanes this season and 1 of them was a major. The season is now on the decline (but certainly not over) as we are now approaching cooler weather. I think wind shear really kept a lid on a lot of storms this season.

Time to watch the W Caribbean area:

 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Awful given the fires there.

Yes.

 

Could be good for us if it continues to winter thru winter.

We havent seen this prolonged pattern in a while

 

 

 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Awful given the fires there.

Every year these fires cause such devastation. There is little doubt that climate change has helped fuel the fires but the real problem is people. Some 80 to 90 per cent of these fires are started by people, the rest by lightning. Maybe we need more education on fire prevention, (I remember always seeing the "smoky the bear" commercials), and better forest management, now that so many more folks live in these fire prone areas.

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Every year these fires cause such devastation. There is little doubt that climate change has helped fuel the fires but the real problem is people. Some 80 to 90 per cent of these fires are started by people, the rest by lightning. Maybe we need more education on fire prevention, (I remember always seeing the "smoky the bear" commercials), and better forest management, now that so many more folks live in these fire prone areas.

A lot of the current fires were caused by lightning. 

Sure we could educate people more and clean up the forests but that's not gonna stop these fires from happening.

The only thing that'll stop them is immediately addressing the climate change problem.

[SACRUS]

 

66/48 off a low of 44.  On the way to 80(+) for the first time since Sep 10th.  Warmer times ahead the next 6 days before we cool down to end the month.  Weekend - would keep an eye to see if any rains get here and if clouds linger Saturday, otherwise warm and dry.  Sun (9/27) and Mon (9/28) sneaky warm ahead of the front which looks to come by Tuesday 9/29.  Cooler air 9/30 - 10/5.  Jury still out on the brunt of the cool and if we see it for more than a day or so but think we are not as cool as this past airmass.  Warmer times beyond 10/6 with west coast ridging breaking down and heights coming up into the east.  Have to see if models are right and this change is sustained.

9/23 - 9/30 : dry and warmer than normal warmest days (9/23, 9/25, 9/27)

10/1  - 10/6 : Cooler than normal coldest days  (10/3 - 10/5)

[psv88]

46 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Every year these fires cause such devastation. There is little doubt that climate change has helped fuel the fires but the real problem is people. Some 80 to 90 per cent of these fires are started by people, the rest by lightning. Maybe we need more education on fire prevention, (I remember always seeing the "smoky the bear" commercials), and better forest management, now that so many more folks live in these fire prone areas.

People are causing climate change...

[lee59]

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A lot of the current fires were caused by lightning. 

Sure we could educate people more and clean up the forests but that's not gonna stop these fires from happening.

The only thing that'll stop them is immediately addressing the climate change problem.

There is no doubt we have to address climate change but unfortunately that takes years. It is a fact that almost 90%  of these fires are started by people. So if you really want to make headroads in stopping these fires, people simply have to be more careful or make sure the area you live in is not so fire prone by taking whatever actions have to be taken thru managing the forests. The other solution is keep the population down in areas that burn easily.

[lee59]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

People are causing climate change...

The problem is to stop climate change immediately, we will have to completely change our life style and most people are not willing. Even if the climate was not changing, if 90% of the fires are started by people, you will still have plenty of devastating fires.

[Cfa]

Speaking of wildfires....

Long Island’s Pine Barrens are even more susceptible to drought, it’s become a yearly occurrence, while Jersey’s Pine Barrens are much larger and more susceptible to lightning, either way it’s a disaster waiting to happen. Pines are highly flammable, and the amount of dry brush, fallen trees, and other dead plant material in the understory makes it worse.

[Allsnow]

On 9/22/2020 at 8:49 AM, Brian5671 said:

if that sticks around into winter we'd be in business for cold at least

Would be a nice pattern for east coast storms as the ridge axis is in the Midwest 

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The sample size for La Niña Octobers with a Western Ridge and Eastern Trough is very small. So we will have to see if the strong ridge to start the month persists like it has in September. There was only 1 La Niña year since 1950 with a pattern like this. It was October 1988. The dominant Pacific feature that winter was that the NEPAC ridge extended north into Alaska. Main problem for us in 88-89 was the very strong +NAO. 08-09 had an almost identical Pacific La Niña pattern with a better Atlantic and more snowfall. So maybe a strong ridge out West in October would be hinting that the Pacific Ridge will extend into Alaska.This would be unlike the last 2 winters with the flat La Niña Ridge North of Hawaii.  But we would have to wait and see how the NAO evolves . Still too early to know if any of this pans out. Just something to think about.

 

88-89 I believe was brutally cold but most of the storms hit the mid Atlantic. @uncle W @donsutherland1?

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Allsnow said:

88-89 I believe was brutally cold but most of the storms hit the mid Atlantic. @uncle W @donsutherland1?

Late Feb 89 dumped 2 feet over south Jersey and the delmarva and missed us completely. Forecast was 6 to 10" and not a flake fell

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Every year these fires cause such devastation. There is little doubt that climate change has helped fuel the fires but the real problem is people. Some 80 to 90 per cent of these fires are started by people, the rest by lightning. Maybe we need more education on fire prevention, (I remember always seeing the "smoky the bear" commercials), and better forest management, now that so many more folks live in these fire prone areas.

if people didn't start the fires the naturally caused ones would have spread out of control regardless 

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

if people didn't start the fires the naturally caused ones would have spread out of control regardless 

That is very possible and climate change is one reason why. All I am saying is the best way we can prevent them now, is thru forest management and somehow getting people to be more careful. Just like folks moving to coastal areas and therefore hurricane damage and deaths go up from years ago. Now so many more folks are living in the areas out west that were once not being occupied and therefore much more damage and death, unfortunately. Don't get me wrong, we still have to keep doing what we can to stop polluting our waters, land and atmosphere. I am an optimist on that, I think our energy pollutants of today will become mostly obsolete in the not so distant future as batteries, solar, wind etc. become more widespread.

[donsutherland1]

40 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

88-89 I believe was brutally cold but most of the storms hit the mid Atlantic. @uncle W @donsutherland1?

Winter 1988-89 was somewhat warmer than normal across the Northeast and warmer than normal across the Southeast. With the exception of southern New Jersey and parts of the Delmarva, snowfall was below to much below normal. Seasonal snowfall amounts included:

Atlantic City: 17.5"
Boston: 15.5"
New York City: 8.1"
Newark: 7.5"
Philadelphia: 11.2"

[doncat]

80° here today after the multiple mornings in the 40's.

[Cfa]

81 here, low was 49.

Edit: High of 82. Much more appropriate for Sept.

[lee59]

79 for a high here, felt good.

[Brian5671]

7 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Late Feb 89 dumped 2 feet over south Jersey and the delmarva and missed us completely. Forecast was 6 to 10" and not a flake fell

it was like a mini March 2001...lots of hype but in the end a dry day for most with sun filtering through the overcast...just awful

[donsutherland1]

With abundant sunshine, temperatures surged into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region today. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 81°
Baltimore: 81°
Boston: 80°
Harrisburg: 84°
Hartford: 79°
Islip: 79°
New York City: 79°
Newark: 83°
Philadelphia: 81°
Washington, DC: 81°

Tomorrow will see similar warmth. Temperatures will likely remain at generally above normal levels for the remainder of September. A cool shot is possible to open October.

Phoenix has an implied 89% probability of recording just its 13th September on record with a mean temperature of 90° or above. The most recent such occurrence was 2018 with a mean temperature of 91.8°. Phoenix will very likely record its hottest June-September period on record with a four-month mean temperature of 95.3°-95.5°. That would exceed the previous June-August record of 95.1°, which was set in 2013 and tied in 2015. The existing record is 93.9°, which was set in 2011.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn.

The SOI was +7.43.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.089.

On September 22, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.168 (RMM). The September 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.998.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.4°.

[SACRUS]

9/23

EWR: 83
JFK: 82
LGA: 81
BLM: 81
New Brnswck: 81
PHL: 81
TEB: 81
TTN: 81
ISP: 80
ACY: 80
NYC: 79

[wdrag]

Good Thursday morning all,

Smoke coming back again here tomorrow.... not real thick but noticeable, differing from the cirrus today. 8AM Friday model guidance added.  Note the sourcing of the plumes in CA.  Also, WY is highlighted critical fire danger this week.

Won't belabor the issue... but next weeks fire danger will be largely dependent on mountain related wind speeds. NWS in CA sees the potential for next week as a very strong anchored ridge develops along the west coast.  I think it's week long, maybe longer and so we'll see if the strong offshore wind materializes.  From NWS Oxnard early this morning below.  

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED). 
   
  Dangerously hot weather and near critical fire weather conditions   
  are possible early next week across the region as strong high 
  pressure builds across the region. 
   

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of September are averaging 72degs.       Making it 68degs., or +2.5.

Month to date is  -0.8[68.4].     September should end at 68.3, near Normal.

I noticed my 1968 Almanac has the Normal for September at 68.5!---but now its 68.0?-with global warming?? 

66*(60%RH) here at 6am, some overcast.      71* by 10am.       Playing with 73*/74*  for last hour (1pm-2pm), and cloudy.

[bluewave]

The 1981-2010 September mean in NYC is 68.0. But we have been averaging closer to 70 since 2010. So close to average feels cool.

Sep 81-10 NCDC official
 75.2
 60.8
 68.0

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Sep	Season
Mean	70.5	70.5
2019	70.4	70.4
2018	70.7	70.7
2017	70.5	70.5
2016	71.8	71.8
2015	74.5	74.5
2014	69.7	69.7
2013	67.9	67.9
2012	68.8	68.8
2011	70.0	70.0
2010	71.1	71.1

[the_other_guy]

55F

Noticeable color on the trees in Southern Westchester now. Early this year

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be variably cloudy and warm. The temperature will likely top out mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°
Newark: 80°
Philadelphia: 79°

The temperature will likely remain above normal through the remainder of this week.

Denver could make a run at 90° today. 2020 has already seen a record 74 such days there.

 

[SACRUS]

63/55 and mostly cloudy.  Cloudy today should keep temps below or near 80 but still dry.  Warmer than normal continues through Mon (9/27) with Sun 9/27 being potential warmest day of past 3 weeks. The next front and deep trough into the GL and then east coast 9/30 - 10/6.   Front swings though Tue  9/29/ Wed (9/30) some heavy rain possible especially northern areas as it looks now.  Coldest looks to stay mainly west of the area with the brunt of the chilliest readings probably coming through the area 10/3 - 10/5 before moderation.  

9/24  - 9/28 : warmer / drier than normal.  Warmest days 9/25, 9/27
 

9.29 - 9/30: front (rain) potential heavy rain ,, first in 3 weeks or since 9/10-11.

10/1 - 10/6 : cooler than normal, coldest readings likely west with 1-2 days 10/3-10/4 before moderation.

10/7 : warmer times ahead