RedSky Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Walt, is that smoke getting sucked in by the TC? Looks like that's why it's coming back. Apocalypse Bingo - Who had smoke cane for September? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Temperatures rose into the middle 60s across much of the region today despite bright sunshine. Another cool night lies ahead. Tomorrow morning, Central Park could have a minimum temperature below 50°. The last time the temperature fell into the 40s in New York City during September was September 24, 2013 when the temperature fell to 47°. Low temperature estimates include: Albany: 33° Allentown: 37° Boston: 47° Bridgeport: 48° Harrisburg: 42° Hartford: 36° Islip: 48° New York City: 49° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 48° Poughkeepsie: 36° Providence: 44° White Plains: 43° Warmer readings will arrive toward mid-week. Afterward, temperatures will likely remain at above normal levels for much of the remainder of September. Phoenix has an implied 69% probability of recording just its 13th September on record with a mean temperature of 90° or above. The most recent such occurrence was 2018 with a mean temperature of 91.8°. Phoenix will very likely record its hottest June-September period on record with a four-month mean temperature of 95.1°-95.3°. The existing record is 93.9°, which was set in 2011. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn. The SOI was +13.73. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.521. On September 19, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.915 (RMM). The September 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.284. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.4°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 9/20 PHL: 66 ACY: 65 EWR: 65 New Brswck: 65 JFK: 65 NYC: 65 LGA: 64 TEB: 64 TTN: 63 ISP: 63 BLM: 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Temperature down to 47 degrees here. Meanwhile in Manhattan (the heat island) the temperature at 7PM was 59 at 8PM 56 and at 9PM it is back up to 58. On nights with very little wind, the range in temperatures can be extreme. My area is reporting temperatures now that range from the mid 40s to low 50s. I have two weather stations in my yard and both normally report very similar temperatures but on nights like this they can be quite different. One is about 5-6 ft. above the ground, as the weather bureau wants, and it says 47.1 and the other which is some 17 ft. above the ground is reporting a temperature of 49.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Dipped down to 49 (today’s low) but now back at 50. High was 64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 54 minutes ago, lee59 said: Temperature down to 47 degrees here. Meanwhile in Manhattan (the heat island) the temperature at 7PM was 59 at 8PM 56 and at 9PM it is back up to 58. On nights with very little wind, the range in temperatures can be extreme. My area is reporting temperatures now that range from the mid 40s to low 50s. I have two weather stations in my yard and both normally report very similar temperatures but on nights like this they can be quite different. One is about 5-6 ft. above the ground, as the weather bureau wants, and it says 47.1 and the other which is some 17 ft. above the ground is reporting a temperature of 49.9. why is it so damn hard for the city to get below 50 degrees in September? I have seen it get below 50 in AUGUST. People need to start ripping out that godawful concrete...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 46 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Temperatures rose into the middle 60s across much of the region today despite bright sunshine. Another cool night lies ahead. Tomorrow morning, Central Park could have a minimum temperature below 50°. The last time the temperature fell into the 40s in New York City during September was September 24, 2013 when the temperature fell to 47°. Low temperature estimates include: Albany: 33° Allentown: 37° Boston: 47° Bridgeport: 48° Harrisburg: 42° Hartford: 36° Islip: 48° New York City: 49° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 48° Poughkeepsie: 36° Providence: 44° White Plains: 43° Warmer readings will arrive toward mid-week. Afterward, temperatures will likely remain at above normal levels for much of the remainder of September. Phoenix has an implied 69% probability of recording just its 13th September on record with a mean temperature of 90° or above. The most recent such occurrence was 2018 with a mean temperature of 91.8°. Phoenix will very likely record its hottest June-September period on record with a four-month mean temperature of 95.1°-95.3°. The existing record is 93.9°, which was set in 2011. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn. The SOI was +13.73. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.521. On September 19, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.915 (RMM). The September 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.284. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.4°. Weird how difficult it is to get a below normal September....even if we have an above normal rest of the month after Monday, there isn't much left in the month; October will start in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Weird how difficult it is to get a below normal September....even if we have an above normal rest of the month after Monday, there isn't much left in the month; October will start in 10 days. In many parts of the U.S., including the New York City area, September has become an extension of summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 61 here in Brooklyn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 42F - no summer here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 61 here in Brooklyn 41.8 in Muttontown & 43.5 in Syosset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 24 minutes ago, uofmiami said: 41.8 in Muttontown & 43.5 in Syosset. I wonder if that part of Nassau County can get into the 30s before FOK does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 39 degrees currently. House temp got down to 60 before my wife requested the windows be closed. But, I held off turning on the heat, so that’s a win in my book. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Current temp is 47 here which is the overnight low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Wantage NJ 629A: Frosty roofs etc and everyone should be noticing smoke in this mornings sunrise...not as dense as last week, but that's coming by Wednesday. Yesterday's predictive smoke post still reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, wdrag said: Wantage NJ 629A: Frosty roofs etc and everyone should be noticing smoke in this mornings sunrise...not as dense as last week, but that's coming by Wednesday. Yesterday's predictive smoke post still reasonable. First official frost here and down to 31 now a couple miles south of KMGJ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 70degs. Make it 65degs., or -1.0. 53*(53%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 52* at 6:30am. 64* by 3pm. 66* by4pm. The Tropics: 27.9N 95.2W, 30.1N 63.3W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 35 out here with patchy frost in the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 First 47° low in September at JFK since 1997. This is also the first September freeze at Sussex, NJ since the records began in 2001 on xmacis2. Kennedy Intl PTCLDY 47 39 74 NE6 Sussex CLEAR 31 29 92 CALM 30.58R Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 2020 47 10 2019 49 0 2018 54 0 2017 54 0 2016 51 0 2015 56 0 2014 51 0 2013 48 0 2012 52 0 2011 50 0 2010 53 0 2009 50 0 2008 52 0 2007 50 0 2006 49 0 2005 50 0 2004 51 0 2003 52 0 2002 54 0 2001 50 0 2000 44 0 1999 51 0 1998 46 0 1997 47 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 2020 31 10 2019 36 0 2018 44 0 2017 38 0 2016 36 8 2015 42 0 2014 39 0 2013 33 0 2012 37 1 2011 39 0 2010 38 0 2009 37 0 2008 37 0 2007 36 0 2006 34 0 2005 36 0 2004 40 0 2003 39 0 2002 38 0 2001 37 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 41 degree low here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 47 for the low here. The park right fighting hard to stay above 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Unusually cold readings for September which has seen the greatest monthly warming here in 30 years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: Unusually cold readings for September which has seen the greatest monthly warming here in 30 years. September in September this year which has become a rarity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 8 hours ago, uofmiami said: 41.8 in Muttontown & 43.5 in Syosset. Did you get into the 30s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 45 for a low here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Just now, Rjay said: 45 for a low here Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Earliest freeze in quite a while here. 30F with heavy frost 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, Rjay said: Did you get into the 30s? 37.3 in Muttontown & 41.1 in Syosset this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 29 minutes ago, Allsnow said: September in September this year which has become a rarity These days we need some type of record 500 MB blocking ridge to get cold. Looks like the ridge will build again to close out the month. Probably our best chance for rain in a while as the trough really digs into the GL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now