September 2020 wx discussion

[RedSky]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt, is that smoke getting sucked in by the TC?  Looks like that's why it's coming back.

 

 

Apocalypse Bingo - Who had smoke cane for September?

 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures rose into the middle 60s across much of the region today despite bright sunshine.

Another cool night lies ahead. Tomorrow morning, Central Park could have a minimum temperature below 50°. The last time the temperature fell into the 40s in New York City during September was September 24, 2013 when the temperature fell to 47°.

Low temperature estimates include:

Albany: 33°
Allentown: 37°
Boston: 47°
Bridgeport: 48°
Harrisburg: 42°
Hartford: 36°
Islip: 48°
New York City: 49°
Newark: 47°
Philadelphia: 48°
Poughkeepsie: 36°
Providence: 44°
White Plains: 43°

Warmer readings will arrive toward mid-week. Afterward, temperatures will likely remain at above normal levels for much of the remainder of September.

Phoenix has an implied 69% probability of recording just its 13th September on record with a mean temperature of 90° or above. The most recent such occurrence was 2018 with a mean temperature of 91.8°. Phoenix will very likely record its hottest June-September period on record with a four-month mean temperature of 95.1°-95.3°. The existing record is 93.9°, which was set in 2011.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn.

The SOI was +13.73.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.521.

On September 19, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.915 (RMM). The September 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.284.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.4°.

 

[SACRUS]

9/20

PHL: 66
ACY: 65
EWR: 65
New Brswck: 65
JFK: 65
NYC: 65
LGA: 64
TEB: 64
TTN: 63
ISP: 63
BLM: 62

[lee59]

Temperature down to 47 degrees here. Meanwhile in Manhattan (the heat island) the temperature at 7PM was 59 at 8PM 56 and at 9PM it is back up to 58. On nights with very little wind, the range in temperatures can be extreme. My area is reporting temperatures now that range from the mid 40s to low 50s. I have two weather stations in my yard and both normally report very similar temperatures but on nights like this they can be quite different. One is about 5-6 ft. above the ground, as the weather bureau wants, and it says 47.1 and the other which is some 17 ft. above the ground is reporting a temperature of 49.9.

[Cfa]

Dipped down to 49 (today’s low) but now back at 50.

High was 64.

[LibertyBell]

54 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Temperature down to 47 degrees here. Meanwhile in Manhattan (the heat island) the temperature at 7PM was 59 at 8PM 56 and at 9PM it is back up to 58. On nights with very little wind, the range in temperatures can be extreme. My area is reporting temperatures now that range from the mid 40s to low 50s. I have two weather stations in my yard and both normally report very similar temperatures but on nights like this they can be quite different. One is about 5-6 ft. above the ground, as the weather bureau wants, and it says 47.1 and the other which is some 17 ft. above the ground is reporting a temperature of 49.9.

why is it so damn hard for the city to get below 50 degrees in September?  I have seen it get below 50 in AUGUST.  People need to start ripping out that godawful concrete......

 

[psv88]

46 already 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures rose into the middle 60s across much of the region today despite bright sunshine.

Another cool night lies ahead. Tomorrow morning, Central Park could have a minimum temperature below 50°. The last time the temperature fell into the 40s in New York City during September was September 24, 2013 when the temperature fell to 47°.

Low temperature estimates include:

Albany: 33°
Allentown: 37°
Boston: 47°
Bridgeport: 48°
Harrisburg: 42°
Hartford: 36°
Islip: 48°
New York City: 49°
Newark: 47°
Philadelphia: 48°
Poughkeepsie: 36°
Providence: 44°
White Plains: 43°

Warmer readings will arrive toward mid-week. Afterward, temperatures will likely remain at above normal levels for much of the remainder of September.

Phoenix has an implied 69% probability of recording just its 13th September on record with a mean temperature of 90° or above. The most recent such occurrence was 2018 with a mean temperature of 91.8°. Phoenix will very likely record its hottest June-September period on record with a four-month mean temperature of 95.1°-95.3°. The existing record is 93.9°, which was set in 2011.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn.

The SOI was +13.73.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.521.

On September 19, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.915 (RMM). The September 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.284.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.4°.

 

Weird how difficult it is to get a below normal September....even if we have an above normal rest of the month after Monday, there isn't much left in the month;  October will start in 10 days.

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Weird how difficult it is to get a below normal September....even if we have an above normal rest of the month after Monday, there isn't much left in the month;  October will start in 10 days.

In many parts of the U.S., including the New York City area, September has become an extension of summer. 

[MJO812]

61 here in Brooklyn

[RedSky]

42F - no summer here 

 

[uofmiami]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

61 here in Brooklyn

41.8 in Muttontown & 43.5 in Syosset.

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

41.8 in Muttontown & 43.5 in Syosset.

I wonder if that part of Nassau County can get into the 30s before FOK does?

 

[ForestHillWx]

39 degrees currently. 

House temp got down to 60 before my wife requested the windows be closed. 
 

But, I held off turning on the heat, so that’s a win in my book. 

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 47 here which is the overnight low.

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 629A: Frosty roofs etc    and everyone should  be noticing smoke in this mornings sunrise...not as dense as last week, but that's coming by Wednesday. Yesterday's predictive smoke post still reasonable.

 

[IrishRob17]

11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Wantage NJ 629A: Frosty roofs etc    and everyone should  be noticing smoke in this mornings sunrise...not as dense as last week, but that's coming by Wednesday. Yesterday's predictive smoke post still reasonable.

 

First official frost here and down to 31 now a couple miles south of KMGJ

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 70degs.     Make it 65degs., or -1.0.

53*(53%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.    52* at 6:30am.      64* by 3pm.       66* by4pm.

The Tropics:  27.9N 95.2W,   30.1N 63.3W.

[Tatamy]

35 out here with patchy frost in the area.

[bluewave]

First 47° low in September at JFK since 1997. This is also the first September freeze at Sussex, NJ since the records began in 2001 on xmacis2.

Kennedy Intl   PTCLDY    47  39  74 NE6    

Sussex         CLEAR     31  29  92 CALM      30.58R

 

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
2020	47	10
2019	49	0
2018	54	0
2017	54	0
2016	51	0
2015	56	0
2014	51	0
2013	48	0
2012	52	0
2011	50	0
2010	53	0
2009	50	0
2008	52	0
2007	50	0
2006	49	0
2005	50	0
2004	51	0
2003	52	0
2002	54	0
2001	50	0
2000	44	0
1999	51	0
1998	46	0
1997	47	0

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
2020	31	10
2019	36	0
2018	44	0
2017	38	0
2016	36	8
2015	42	0
2014	39	0
2013	33	0
2012	37	1
2011	39	0
2010	38	0
2009	37	0
2008	37	0
2007	36	0
2006	34	0
2005	36	0
2004	40	0
2003	39	0
2002	38	0
2001	37	0

 

[lee59]

41 degree low here this morning.

[dmillz25]

47 for the low here. The park right fighting hard to stay above 50

[bluewave]

Unusually cold readings for September which has seen the greatest monthly warming here in 30 years.

 

 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Unusually cold readings for September which has seen the greatest monthly warming here in 30 years.

 

 

September in September this year which has become a rarity 

[Rjay]

8 hours ago, uofmiami said:

41.8 in Muttontown & 43.5 in Syosset.

Did you get into the 30s?

[Rjay]

45 for a low here

[Cfa]

Just now, Rjay said:

45 for a low here

Same.

[Juliancolton]

Earliest freeze in quite a while here. 30F with heavy frost

[uofmiami]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Did you get into the 30s?

37.3 in Muttontown & 41.1 in Syosset this morning. 

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

September in September this year which has become a rarity 

These days we need some type of record 500 MB blocking ridge to get cold. Looks like the ridge will build again to close out the month. Probably our best chance for rain in a while as the trough really digs into the GL.