September 2020 wx discussion

[Rjay]

My low was 49

[Cfa]

63/36 right now. High was 67, low was 49.

Lowest dews since the first half of May, DP hit 33 today.

[Rjay]

64 here and it was my high so far. 

[Rjay]

Just now, Cfa said:

63/36 right now. High was 66, low was 49.

Lowest dews since the first half of May, DP hit 33 today.

Odd. My dp has been in the upper 20s for hours now.

[Rjay]

FRG 64/29

ISP 62/28

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

The low of 50° in NYC was the coldest September temperature since 2013. Early Sunday could be a degree or two cooler. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
2020	50	11
2019	52	0
2018	54	0
2017	54	0
2016	54	0
2015	56	0
2014	52	0
2013	47	0

Looks like JFK could get into the 40s also!  A first for Sept there since 2013 also?

 

[Cfa]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Odd. My dp has been in the upper 20s for hours now.

Strange, but it matches the airport obs so yours is probably more accurate.

[bluewave]

Looks like the first 26° September dew point at Newark since the late 90s.

Newark/Liberty MOSUNNY   64  26  23 N12  

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=159&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&var=dwpf&dir=below&thres=27&month=sep&year=2020&dpi=100&_fmt=png

[donsutherland1]

Under mostly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the lower 60s at Robert Moses State Park this afternoon. A few Monarch butterflies were in flight, but the peak migration is still a little in the future, as much of the goldenrod has yet to bloom. Five photos from today:

[rclab]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under mostly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the lower 60s at Robert Moses State Park this afternoon. A few Monarch butterflies were in flight, but the peak migration is still a little in the future, as much of the goldenrod has yet to bloom. Five photos from today:

If I may Don, your Demonstrated and gentle caring for our planet means Gaia chose her custodians well. As always ...

[lee59]

Looks like some  large surf and beach erosion the next few days. Possibly as bad as last week when Jones Beach had complete over wash. Meanwhile dropping to the mid 50s here. As spring is just a few days away in the southern Hemisphere, Amundsen-Scott weather station at the South Pole has a temperature of -70 degrees with a windchill of -103.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures reached only the lower and middle 60s across the region today despite bright sunshine. Tomorrow morning, Central Park will likely have a minimum temperature below 50°. The last time the temperature fell into the 40s in New York City during September was September 24, 2013 when the temperature fell to 47°.

Select low temperature estimates include:

Albany: 35°
Allentown: 39°
Boston: 46°
Bridgeport: 47°
Harrisburg: 42°
Hartford: 38°
Islip: 48°
New York City: 48°
Newark: 47°
Philadelphia: 47°
Poughkeepsie: 37°
Providence: 44°
White Plains: 42°

Generally below normal readings could persist until near the middle of next week. Afterward, temperatures will moderate with temperatures returning to above normal levels for much of the remainder of the month.

Today, Denver hit 90°. That was the 74th time this year that the temperature reached or exceeded 90° at Denver. The prior record was 73 days, which was set in 2012.

The 30-year moving average of 90° days has also been increasing. Since 2000, Denver has added an average of 9.5 such days to its annual figure. Since 1950, the annual average has increased by just over 90% to an average of 44.6 days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn.

The SOI was +10.28.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.003.

On September 18, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.290 (RMM). The September 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.587.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.2°.

 

[Stormlover74]

Already down to 50

[SACRUS]

9/19

JFK: 66
PHL: 66
LGA: 65
EWR: 65
ACY: 65
New Brnswck: 65
BLM: 64
ACY: 65
TEB: 64
NYC: 63
TTN: 63
ISP: 63
 

[SACRUS]

43 here already happy november

[lee59]

This mornings low here was 48, I'm already down to 49 tonight.

[SACRUS]

Is the gfs too warm later this week/ next weekend? either way once past monday , much warmer starting Wed.  Might be the coolest for a long while.

 

[lee59]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Is the gfs too warm later this week/ next weekend? either way once past monday , much warmer starting Wed.  Might be the coolest for a long while.

 

That wouldn't be the worse thing to happen. A cold fall can make for a long winter. Also warmer than normal temps this time of year and into October can be pleasant rather than hot.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Is the gfs too warm later this week/ next weekend? either way once past monday , much warmer starting Wed.  Might be the coolest for a long while.

 

Models have been all over the place but warmer than normal should win out.

Also already 47F at 11PM, gonna take the under with 46F forecast low.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.     Make it 64degs., or -2.5.

53*(48%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.     52* at 6:30am.        64* by 3pm.

The Tropics:  26.7N 92.7W-I might do some damage yet.    28.0N 62.0W-hotel rates in Bermuda are too high, I'll skip by to the east,  15N 42W-die already.

[bluewave]

The Euro and GFS have us getting back to the 80s by later in the week. But it looks like we will come up short on reaching 90°. So this could be the first fall since 2011 without any 90° degree days at Newark. The last fall at LGA without any 90s was 2012.

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
2020	0	72
2019	4	0
2018	4	0
2017	3	0
2016	5	0
2015	5	0
2014	3	0
2013	1	0
2012	2	0
2011	0	0
2010	6	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
2020	0	72
2019	3	0
2018	4	0
2017	1	0
2016	3	0
2015	3	0
2014	2	0
2013	1	0
2012	0	0
2011	0	0
2010	4	0

[wdrag]

Will probably run some trajectories on BETA moist remnants by Tuesday the 22nd, to support possible moisture contribution to the large scale trough developing into the eastern USA around Monday the 28th.  From what I can tell, the initial BETA contribution will be swept eastward, well to our south this coming Friday-Saturday,. Thereafter, it appears to me some of that remnant moisture will be drawn northward along the east coast.  NAEFS now onto a potentially meaningful rain event (nne-ssw bands) for early next week (28-29).  We'll see if se NYS and extreme nw NJ benefit from this.  No rain here since the 10th. 808A/20

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

The coldest air so far this season remains in place. Today will be partly sunny and still very cool for the season. The temperature will likely top out in the lower and middle 60s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°
Newark: 65°
Philadelphia: 66°

Toward the middle of this week, a warmer pattern will develop.

In terms of verification, here's how last evening's estimates worked out:

Albany: 35°; Actual: 34°
Allentown: 39°; Actual: 36°
Boston: 46°; Actual: 44°
Bridgeport: 47°; Actual: 49°
Harrisburg: 42°; Actual: 43°
Hartford: 38°; Actual: 36°
Islip: 48°; Actual: 48°
New York City: 48°; Actual: 50°
Newark: 47°; Actual: 48°
Philadelphia: 47°; Actual: 47°
Poughkeepsie: 37°; Actual: 36°
Providence: 44°; Actual: 46°
White Plains: 42°; Actual: 45°

Average Error: 1.5°

 

[lee59]

I got down to 46 about 1A.M. and then the temperature leveled off and actually rose a few degrees by daylight.

[MJO812]

56 here in Brooklyn 

[uofmiami]

Lows were at midnight as NE winds bumped temps up overnight. 42.8 in Muttontown & 48.4 in Syosset.

[dmillz25]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

56 here in Brooklyn 

Those water temps keeping south bk warmer

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Will probably run some trajectories on BETA moist remnants by Tuesday the 22nd, to support possible moisture contribution to the large scale trough developing into the eastern USA around Monday the 28th.  From what I can tell, the initial BETA contribution will be swept eastward, well to our south this coming Friday-Saturday,. Thereafter, it appears to me some of that remnant moisture will be drawn northward along the east coast.  NAEFS now onto a potentially meaningful rain event (nne-ssw bands) for early next week (28-29).  We'll see if se NYS and extreme nw NJ benefit from this.  No rain here since the 10th. 808A/20

Yeah, it does look like that big Western Ridge builds again to close out the month. So a deep trough in the Great Lakes would probably mean a wetter pattern for us. Any remnant tropical moisture from BETA would enhance our rainfall prospects.

 

[rclab]

40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

The coldest air so far this season remains in place. Today will be partly sunny and still very cool for the season. The temperature will likely top out in the lower and middle 60s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°
Newark: 65°
Philadelphia: 66°

Toward the middle of this week, a warmer pattern will develop.

In terms of verification, here's how last evening's estimates worked out:

Albany: 35°; Actual: 34°
Allentown: 39°; Actual: 36°
Boston: 46°; Actual: 44°
Bridgeport: 47°; Actual: 49°
Harrisburg: 42°; Actual: 43°
Hartford: 38°; Actual: 36°
Islip: 48°; Actual: 48°
New York City: 48°; Actual: 50°
Newark: 47°; Actual: 48°
Philadelphia: 47°; Actual: 47°
Poughkeepsie: 37°; Actual: 36°
Providence: 44°; Actual: 46°
White Plains: 42°; Actual: 45°

Average Error: 1.5°

 

UHI effect rarely fails us. As always....

[dmillz25]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it does look like that big Western Ridge builds again to close out the month. So a deep trough in the Great Lakes would probably mean a wetter pattern for us. Any remnant tropical moisture from BETA will enhance our rainfall prospects.

 

Lets hope we see this in December and not the opposite