Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Significant Severe Weather Event Possible Thursday, August 27, 2020


weatherwiz
 Share

Recommended Posts

Off -topic but this whole cold banking into Maine and SE Ontario around the SW arc of that seasonal anomaly whirling around up there, also indirectly conducting SPC's failure like a great maestro of a  symphony called poor allocation of technological wherewithal ( heh ), it is all happening because of a faster than normal ambient wind energy in the hemispheric scope and scales.   

There's all kinds of mirror feedbacks popping up all over the planet like that.  In this case the unusual ongoing subtle but real HC expansion is triggering lingered higher than normal jet velocities that have empirically been observed all over the NH during winters, carried over in smaller proportions but non-negligible during summer. Wave mechanics at super-synoptic scales then means that R-waves didn't get quite as lost in entropy as they normally would.  One should simply not see this on a weather chart in the first week of September, when looking at 1800 through about 1982 reanalysis as one's template mean:

sept.jpg.1c5d14f263b3f1af6907b5e855a30d05.jpg

I mean, they don't disappear altogether; we're talking about "approaching"?  But that up there represents vast, deep constructive R-wave fed-back anomalies that are both x-y and z coordinate not supposed to happen when compared to the previous data mean suggestion - clearly something has changed. And, that is an assertion based upon persistence, too. This is a snapshot that is increasingly more common really since the super Nino of 1998 ended, albeit more noticeable with increasing frequency spanning the last 10 years. It's important to note because we are transition from the old guard to the new behavior norm with the GW stuff and many middle aged weather folks and enthusiast are defaulted to being the unfortunate inheritors of different spectrum of experiences, from 1960 through 1998, as as their guide.  

Anyway, this vortex up there, I watched it closely evolve since 10 days ago in the EPS and the operational version... as well as the GFS cluster.  It really didn't set up like a typical synoptic progression. It's really like the atmosphere spontaneiously "gapped open" and then that space was defaulted into a low pressure node - it really appeared more so to be harmonic planetary vortex/R-wave ... ( pseudo " rogue" in the atmosphere ) that created this thing up there, more so than a cyclone maturing in the flow in the standard sense of the "Norwegian Model Low" NML. 

This is a result of a global warming as a wild op ed assertion that is guaranteed to role other Met eyes. But, you cannot drive 70 to 90 kt sustatain jet mechanics over the arc of the N. Pac into western Canada, without wave mechanics becoming more than neutralized at any time of year. Season is irrelevant ...it's about kinematics at that point... 

This is why we have been entertained by so many unusual CAA events in Octobers ... deep enough to send 'packing pellet' snow in the air, if not unusually early wet snow from synoptic events since this tendency of HC expansion began in the late 1990s and has advanced since ... intruding upon the lower Ferrel Cells latitude ... and the problem therein is that the boudnary between the HC and FC is amorphous...It's not like you put a ruler down on the 570 DM contour and assume away. 

The velocity is skewing the season end points. It's inducing 'fold over' trough nodes like this in autumns and in springs ( they are somewhat analog to hemispheric scaled Kelvin-Hemholtz waves).  This needs a definitive empirical data fetch...but, I personally observed perhaps 5 autumn and/or springs with snow or snow-supporting atmospheres between 1970 and 1998 ... I have witness this 15 times since 2000, while all this HC and gradient saturation speed anomaly stuff become ever more evidence.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well given the CAMS and short-term guidance I think we will definitely see some activity later...if we are able to generate the instability numbers which have been tossed around by some guidance it will be a big day. Judging satellite and upstream obs at least western CT to Hartford should destabilize quite well. Let's see if we can pool those lower 70's Td's in

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

image.png.5f241303f40dcb2d8ae11886af30d6a5.pngimage.png.deefc3e82f678d4c8898ca612a68caac.png

I would put the 850 mb warm boundary inside the gradient  - because the boundary is not straight up and down ...it is sloped, such that that it terminates/escapes skyward above the respective sigma levels in the x-coordinate ...so, it is deeper over CT and entry into the boundary interface above that level over S Nh ...so the front is really bifurcating this image an angle - although ...wait...is that doing the depth of the column or is that an just the 850 slice... I may not be right - depends on the product orientation

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I would put the 850 mb warm boundary inside the gradient  - because the boundary is not straight up and down ...it is sloped, such that that it terminates/escapes skyward above the respective sigma levels in the x-coordinate ...so, it is deeper over CT and entry into the boundary interface above that level over S Nh ...so the front is really bifurcating this image an angle 

I've never been good with drawings :lol:

part of the reason why Calc III was a disaster for me

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am so torn on BDL or towards Danbury...the HRRR really targets more towards BDL. In these setups I've also gotten burned too many times by not going closer to where the warm front will be...which of course I guess if the HRRR is too far north with that than it is with storms. I'm also wondering if this sfc heating can help drive wf a bit?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The present linear complex pressing quickly SE through upstate NY should put the k-bosh on this for good... 

It's got some pricey DBZ returns along the axis but nothing triggering warnings ... It clearly also is terminating into an overrunning synoptic plug with crumbled elevated convection kernels to offer pulses of heavier rain in side a light to moderate for a couple of hours.   But I'm not even sure the western end of the line outside that shield is really in a warm sector...  Anyway, it should cool the BL further and that's the ball-game

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CarverWX said:

Sun's out down here

 

Not sure that matters... Lot of posting about the sun.  Okay, but it's not likely to be enough. This cool air mass is a thick anomaly... it needs two, June 21 sun disks in the sky to overcome lol

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...