weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 The NAM does look a bit more impressive...the 3KM NAM has been super consistent too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 TODAY IS A DAY WHY THEY NEED TO BALLOON LAUNCHES FROM BDL...AT LEAST DURING SPECIAL EVENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 This is a bit uneasy later...especially with forecast of MLCAPE pushing 1500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Off -topic but this whole cold banking into Maine and SE Ontario around the SW arc of that seasonal anomaly whirling around up there, also indirectly conducting SPC's failure like a great maestro of a symphony called poor allocation of technological wherewithal ( heh ), it is all happening because of a faster than normal ambient wind energy in the hemispheric scope and scales. There's all kinds of mirror feedbacks popping up all over the planet like that. In this case the unusual ongoing subtle but real HC expansion is triggering lingered higher than normal jet velocities that have empirically been observed all over the NH during winters, carried over in smaller proportions but non-negligible during summer. Wave mechanics at super-synoptic scales then means that R-waves didn't get quite as lost in entropy as they normally would. One should simply not see this on a weather chart in the first week of September, when looking at 1800 through about 1982 reanalysis as one's template mean: I mean, they don't disappear altogether; we're talking about "approaching"? But that up there represents vast, deep constructive R-wave fed-back anomalies that are both x-y and z coordinate not supposed to happen when compared to the previous data mean suggestion - clearly something has changed. And, that is an assertion based upon persistence, too. This is a snapshot that is increasingly more common really since the super Nino of 1998 ended, albeit more noticeable with increasing frequency spanning the last 10 years. It's important to note because we are transition from the old guard to the new behavior norm with the GW stuff and many middle aged weather folks and enthusiast are defaulted to being the unfortunate inheritors of different spectrum of experiences, from 1960 through 1998, as as their guide. Anyway, this vortex up there, I watched it closely evolve since 10 days ago in the EPS and the operational version... as well as the GFS cluster. It really didn't set up like a typical synoptic progression. It's really like the atmosphere spontaneiously "gapped open" and then that space was defaulted into a low pressure node - it really appeared more so to be harmonic planetary vortex/R-wave ... ( pseudo " rogue" in the atmosphere ) that created this thing up there, more so than a cyclone maturing in the flow in the standard sense of the "Norwegian Model Low" NML. This is a result of a global warming as a wild op ed assertion that is guaranteed to role other Met eyes. But, you cannot drive 70 to 90 kt sustatain jet mechanics over the arc of the N. Pac into western Canada, without wave mechanics becoming more than neutralized at any time of year. Season is irrelevant ...it's about kinematics at that point... This is why we have been entertained by so many unusual CAA events in Octobers ... deep enough to send 'packing pellet' snow in the air, if not unusually early wet snow from synoptic events since this tendency of HC expansion began in the late 1990s and has advanced since ... intruding upon the lower Ferrel Cells latitude ... and the problem therein is that the boudnary between the HC and FC is amorphous...It's not like you put a ruler down on the 570 DM contour and assume away. The velocity is skewing the season end points. It's inducing 'fold over' trough nodes like this in autumns and in springs ( they are somewhat analog to hemispheric scaled Kelvin-Hemholtz waves). This needs a definitive empirical data fetch...but, I personally observed perhaps 5 autumn and/or springs with snow or snow-supporting atmospheres between 1970 and 1998 ... I have witness this 15 times since 2000, while all this HC and gradient saturation speed anomaly stuff become ever more evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Very dark in Dennisport. Definitely feels like a front is coming. Hoping it finds a way to punch through down here and we end up in the activity. Sort of on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 Well given the CAMS and short-term guidance I think we will definitely see some activity later...if we are able to generate the instability numbers which have been tossed around by some guidance it will be a big day. Judging satellite and upstream obs at least western CT to Hartford should destabilize quite well. Let's see if we can pool those lower 70's Td's in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Clearing has started and the sun is coming through. Burptown waits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 12 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Very dark in Dennisport. Definitely feels like a front is coming. Hoping it finds a way to punch through down here and we end up in the activity. Sort of on the line. Brightening a bit in Falmouth now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 3 hours ago, Whineminster said: Looks like TORs for the the corn country of the southern tier. The rest of us....meh. Couple showaz Not surprising, it's been a non-event for days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 brightening up here in Boston...i'm not expecting much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Sun just popped out here in lovely downtown Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Brightening a bit in Falmouth now. Yup. Sunshine out here in Dennis! Let's see what happens. Nice shower for our lawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 These showers and cloud debris need to clear out. 70 with occasional breaks of sun. Also, wind suddenly sprang up from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 I am surprised about the lack of excitement coming from the CT folks right now... things look to be lining up for at least a modest show, maybe more: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-01-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 the 850 warm front is certainly farther north but the sfc warm front hasn't made much progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 65.8/51 and cloudy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 chilly day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: the 850 warm front is certainly farther north but the sfc warm front hasn't made much progress. Yea that is very apparent. I thought it was not modeled to really push north for 3-4 more hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 66.2 on the station at home...love it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 If anything, it appears it rains a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I would put the 850 mb warm boundary inside the gradient - because the boundary is not straight up and down ...it is sloped, such that that it terminates/escapes skyward above the respective sigma levels in the x-coordinate ...so, it is deeper over CT and entry into the boundary interface above that level over S Nh ...so the front is really bifurcating this image an angle - although ...wait...is that doing the depth of the column or is that an just the 850 slice... I may not be right - depends on the product orientation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I would put the 850 mb warm boundary inside the gradient - because the boundary is not straight up and down ...it is sloped, such that that it terminates/escapes skyward above the respective sigma levels in the x-coordinate ...so, it is deeper over CT and entry into the boundary interface above that level over S Nh ...so the front is really bifurcating this image an angle I've never been good with drawings part of the reason why Calc III was a disaster for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: I've never been good with drawings part of the reason why Calc III was a disaster for me lol, you may be okay ...I added a sentence to that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: lol, you may be okay ...I added a sentence to that - ahhh but you do bring up a great point and that's actually a damn good question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: TODAY IS A DAY WHY THEY NEED TO BALLOON LAUNCHES FROM BDL...AT LEAST DURING SPECIAL EVENTS. The models use AMDAR data already, so I don't now how much more useful data you'd get from a dedicated balloon launching site at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 I am so torn on BDL or towards Danbury...the HRRR really targets more towards BDL. In these setups I've also gotten burned too many times by not going closer to where the warm front will be...which of course I guess if the HRRR is too far north with that than it is with storms. I'm also wondering if this sfc heating can help drive wf a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 The present linear complex pressing quickly SE through upstate NY should put the k-bosh on this for good... It's got some pricey DBZ returns along the axis but nothing triggering warnings ... It clearly also is terminating into an overrunning synoptic plug with crumbled elevated convection kernels to offer pulses of heavier rain in side a light to moderate for a couple of hours. But I'm not even sure the western end of the line outside that shield is really in a warm sector... Anyway, it should cool the BL further and that's the ball-game 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Sun's out down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, CarverWX said: Sun's out down here Not sure that matters... Lot of posting about the sun. Okay, but it's not likely to be enough. This cool air mass is a thick anomaly... it needs two, June 21 sun disks in the sky to overcome lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now