CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: lol I’m joking Scoots but seriously...looks like its crapping out some? Well maybe not crapping out, just a matter of warm front placement. I'd keep an eye out where you are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 bufkit soundings not nearly as unstable cross Waterbury, CT (from all models) as they were yesterday but this is pretty impressive to see from the HREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 HRRR is 60 or so here while it's in the 80's at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 We have no problems ripping warm fronts thru in winter yet in the hottest summer on record for all of us and boiling SST’’s it wants to hang up along the immediate s coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: We have no problems ripping warm fronts thru in winter yet in the hottest summer on record for all of us and boiling SST’’s it wants to hang up along the immediate s coast It's due to track of sf low. But the warm front should get into CT...probably not through whole state. The greatest question just seems to be destabilization...HRRR doesn't want to generate all that much...nor other models. Maybe clouds too much of a problem but with those steeper lapse rates nearby and high dews won't take much heating to crank instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Looks like TORs for the the corn country of the southern tier. The rest of us....meh. Couple showaz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 The clouds and rain here now is certainly a good sign to limit pm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 11z HRRR looks a little better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's due to track of sf low. But the warm front should get into CT...probably not through whole state. The greatest question just seems to be destabilization...HRRR doesn't want to generate all that much...nor other models. Maybe clouds too much of a problem but with those steeper lapse rates nearby and high dews won't take much heating to crank instability. Cloud debris, as usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 Just now, Hoth said: Cloud debris, as usual. where the warm front moves through skies should clear relatively quickly. On satellite you basically go from startacrap to naked sun bathing within the span of someones yard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's due to track of sf low. But the warm front should get into CT...probably not through whole state. The greatest question just seems to be destabilization...HRRR doesn't want to generate all that much...nor other models. Maybe clouds too much of a problem but with those steeper lapse rates nearby and high dews won't take much heating to crank instability. I think you need to prepare to be disappointed. Everything backed off . Not good signals. Hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I think you need to prepare to be disappointed. Everything backed off . Not good signals. Hope not SW CT very much in the game. The warm front looks to even be making progress. And even just on the north side of the front you have to watch for elevated supercells with large hail potential. The instability/thermal gradient with this front needs to be kept in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 nasty looking cell southeast of Syracuse. There's your elevated supercell and what is indicative even just along/north of WF EDIT: actually may not be that elevated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 hmmm outside of shear OKX sounding is not impressive at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Nope ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Don't feel so bad ... there are two distinct chances for "responsible lust for destruction" on the 00z Euro beyond this joke, each far more interesting than this one ever should have been allowed to be... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 no change to the SPC outlook...a bit shocking. Sun poking here in Branford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: no change to the SPC outlook...a bit shocking. Sun poking here in Branford. 12z HRRR is warm and close here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: no change to the SPC outlook...a bit shocking. Sun poking here in Branford. You're good. I think we may be out of the game up here north of BDL. 62/58 cloudy skies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: We have no problems ripping warm fronts thru in winter yet in the hottest summer on record for all of us and boiling SST’’s it wants to hang up along the immediate s coast I told you yesterday to never trust a warm front's modeled position. This had a pretty solid cold/cool air mass sitting across eastern New England and it should not be shocking it is struggling to blast northeast across SNE. That being said, still an interesting setup and you cannot dismiss some of the basics in play with this event; just yet. Could still turn into a solid northwest flow event, but this has almost always looked like a southeastern NY / west-southwestern CT deal. The question now is can we destabilize enough on the back side of the warm front or will cloud debris put a nail in the instability coffin. Things can and often do change quickly and anyone dismissing the possibility of this becoming a nasty event for western CT should wait a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Just now, ineedsnow said: 12z HRRR is warm and close here Been watching that too. Many times the morning of we see things back down a bit in terms of potential. Just ride it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Seems like the convection between ALB and BGM is going to help at least temporarily keep the warm front south as it moves toward CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z HRRR is warm and close here Sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 43 minutes ago, FXWX said: I told you yesterday to never trust a warm front's modeled position. This had a pretty solid cold/cool air mass sitting across eastern New England and it should not be shocking it is struggling to blast northeast across SNE. That being said, still an interesting setup and you cannot dismiss some of the basics in play with this event; just yet. Could still turn into a solid northwest flow event, but this has almost always looked like a southeastern NY / west-southwestern CT deal. The question now is can we destabilize enough on the back side of the warm front or will cloud debris put a nail in the instability coffin. Things can and often do change quickly and anyone dismissing the possibility of this becoming a nasty event for western CT should wait a bit. Not to be a douche and you don't know me ...I don't think .. but, I don't believe that front actually can move NE of it's current position looking at this at a broad conceptual approach to this situation. ..as in fluid mechanically it can't. Then, after that notion... one has to consider New England's climatology with BD-pinned fronts, which is just a dense clay of other geographical feed-back no-no's - eesh The flow is paralleling the boundary; it's like all of the analytic Meteorological brain trust has gone mad. When do warm fronts penetrate through an abrasion flow? That is like ..physically impossible. This situation seems(ed) dead to me when I saw that yesterday in the models..W-NW flow at mid levels. What is SPC using? Now, granted ...that shuts off any hope of "SB" in the SB CAPE.. but elevated... mmm maybe. But they are not talking about "elevated" per se convection in the morning write up... Which, by the way folks - there's currently a cut-off vortex near the 50N/50W position slopping cat -paws over eastern Ontario above the 50th parallel, and that feature is pinned in position. That backlogs the W-NW or arguably more NW flow at mid levels here, which pins the warm front there... end of discussion. Now, this was all modeled ..I am actually interested in how SPC came by their enhanced geographic layout - because looking at these very real and reasonably well modeled synoptic circumstances, I don't see how they come by their risk assessed region like that. The only way I see Enhanced clear to Springfield Massachusetts ... is if clearing opens up sun almost entirely ( 90% open ceilings/cloud extraction) and the atmosphere gets diabatically forced by the sun... but, the sun is now mid April in intensity ... ( for perspective ) ...It's not May-July out there so even so, its harder for the sun to do that at our latitude and depth of atmosphere east of Berkshires .. Moot anyway looking at sat trends... However... ugh, I am - reluctantly - interested in if there is an elevate hail risk where any stronger convection that is feeding purely off the 850 upglide parcel lift on the flop side of the front, and is paralleling it racing SE... yeah...maybe. But, we may as well not even call this a warm front. .. There is a 101 synoptic term that is out there available for this sort of phenomenon and it is called a "stationary" front. And, with the mid level flow abraded(ing) SE that like it is ... sawing off any warm intrusion attempting to mix down... that leaves only one possibility - the models are/were wrong ( but so far nearing mid morning the pinned front is well handled) I guess if the vortex NW of NS/NF weakens during the day, and the mid level flow veers slightly... and the stationary boundary does actually "warm" for a period of time...it might intrude into CT ..but that's not modeled to do that... I don't think ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 The HRRR does seem to always be a bit aggressive with pushing warm fronts through. Just based on low track alone I can't see it getting that far north...but doesn't mean severe wx potential doesn't exist that far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 Another big key for SW CT will be that plume of steep lapse rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 26 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Seems like the convection between ALB and BGM is going to help at least temporarily keep the warm front south as it moves toward CT. Yeah when I see rain/elevated convection getting into the cold sector it always give me pause about plowing the warm front through because of the evap cooling north of the front. It always seems to give the cold sector more staying power...especially here in CAD land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 NAM further north with it but skunked here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Boy is it cold up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now