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Significant Severe Weather Event Possible Thursday, August 27, 2020


weatherwiz
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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We have no problems ripping warm fronts thru in winter yet in the hottest summer on record for all of us and boiling SST’’s it wants to hang up along the immediate s coast 

It's due to track of sf low. But the warm front should get into CT...probably not through whole state. The greatest question just seems to be destabilization...HRRR doesn't want to generate all that much...nor other models. Maybe clouds too much of a problem but with those steeper lapse rates nearby and high dews won't take much heating to crank instability.

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11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's due to track of sf low. But the warm front should get into CT...probably not through whole state. The greatest question just seems to be destabilization...HRRR doesn't want to generate all that much...nor other models. Maybe clouds too much of a problem but with those steeper lapse rates nearby and high dews won't take much heating to crank instability.

Cloud debris, as usual.

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28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's due to track of sf low. But the warm front should get into CT...probably not through whole state. The greatest question just seems to be destabilization...HRRR doesn't want to generate all that much...nor other models. Maybe clouds too much of a problem but with those steeper lapse rates nearby and high dews won't take much heating to crank instability.

I think you need to prepare to be disappointed. Everything backed off . Not good signals. Hope not

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I think you need to prepare to be disappointed. Everything backed off . Not good signals. Hope not

SW CT very much in the game. The warm front looks to even be making progress. And even just on the north side of the front you have to watch for elevated supercells with large hail potential. The instability/thermal gradient with this front needs to be kept in mind. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We have no problems ripping warm fronts thru in winter yet in the hottest summer on record for all of us and boiling SST’’s it wants to hang up along the immediate s coast 

I told you yesterday to never trust a warm front's modeled position.  This had a pretty solid cold/cool air mass sitting across eastern New England and it should not be shocking it is struggling to blast northeast across SNE.  That being said, still an interesting setup and you cannot dismiss some of the basics in play with this event; just yet.  Could still turn into a solid northwest flow event, but this has almost always looked like a southeastern NY / west-southwestern CT deal.  The question now is can we destabilize enough on the back side of the warm front or will cloud debris put a nail in the instability coffin.  Things can and often do change quickly and anyone dismissing the possibility of this becoming a nasty event for western CT should wait a bit.

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43 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I told you yesterday to never trust a warm front's modeled position.  This had a pretty solid cold/cool air mass sitting across eastern New England and it should not be shocking it is struggling to blast northeast across SNE.  That being said, still an interesting setup and you cannot dismiss some of the basics in play with this event; just yet.  Could still turn into a solid northwest flow event, but this has almost always looked like a southeastern NY / west-southwestern CT deal.  The question now is can we destabilize enough on the back side of the warm front or will cloud debris put a nail in the instability coffin.  Things can and often do change quickly and anyone dismissing the possibility of this becoming a nasty event for western CT should wait a bit.

Not to be a douche and you don't know me ...I don't think .. but, I don't believe that front actually can move NE of it's current position looking at this at a broad conceptual approach to this situation. ..as in fluid mechanically it can't.  Then, after that notion... one has to consider New England's climatology with BD-pinned fronts, which is just a dense clay of other geographical feed-back no-no's - eesh

The flow is paralleling the boundary; it's like all of the analytic Meteorological brain trust has gone mad.  When do warm fronts penetrate through an abrasion flow?  That is like ..physically impossible. 

This situation seems(ed) dead to me when I saw that yesterday in the models..W-NW flow at mid levels. What is SPC using?  Now, granted ...that shuts off any hope of "SB" in the SB CAPE.. but elevated... mmm maybe. But they are not talking about "elevated" per se convection in the morning write up... 

Which, by the way folks - there's currently a cut-off vortex near the 50N/50W position slopping cat -paws over eastern Ontario above the 50th parallel, and that feature is pinned in position.  That backlogs the W-NW or arguably more NW flow at mid levels here, which pins the warm front there... end of discussion. 

Now, this was all modeled ..I am actually interested in how SPC came by their enhanced geographic layout - because looking at these very real and reasonably well modeled synoptic circumstances, I don't see how they come by their risk assessed region like that. 

The only way I see Enhanced clear to Springfield Massachusetts ... is if clearing opens up sun almost entirely ( 90% open ceilings/cloud extraction) and the atmosphere gets diabatically forced by the sun... but, the sun is now mid April in intensity ... ( for perspective ) ...It's not May-July out there so even so, its harder for the sun to do that at our latitude and depth of atmosphere east of Berkshires .. Moot anyway looking at sat trends...  

However... ugh, I am - reluctantly - interested in if there is an elevate hail risk where any stronger convection that is feeding purely off the 850 upglide parcel lift on the flop side of the front, and is paralleling it racing SE... yeah...maybe.   But, we may as well not even call this a warm front. .. There is a 101 synoptic term that is out there available for this sort of phenomenon and it is called a "stationary" front.   And, with the mid level flow abraded(ing) SE that like it is ... sawing off any warm intrusion attempting to mix down... that leaves only one possibility - the models are/were wrong ( but so far nearing mid morning the pinned front is well handled)

I guess if the vortex NW of NS/NF weakens during the day, and the mid level flow veers slightly... and the stationary boundary does actually "warm" for a period of time...it might intrude into CT ..but that's not modeled to do that... I don't think ? 

 

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26 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Seems like the convection between ALB and BGM is going to help at least temporarily keep the warm front south as it moves toward CT.

Yeah when I see rain/elevated convection getting into the cold sector it always give me pause about plowing the warm front through because of the evap cooling north of the front. It always seems to give the cold sector more staying power...especially here in CAD land.

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