RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoth said: You need to change your name to Damage In Southbury. Sunny in Southbury... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2020 Author Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, OceanStWx said: There is definitely a bias towards the CAPE side since that's the easy one to get over the threshold, but overall it does a fair job for areal coverage. yeah that it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Works for me. Power is a good thing Power, roofs, life...all good things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 What do we need for this to crap out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yester Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 What about RI and SE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What do we need for this to crap out? Lapse rates of like 5 degrees would probably work. Don't think the atmosphere will oblige us. Maybe the warm front gets hung up across NY and never makes it in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 I think it may get hung up in ny. Seems its been trending this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Lapse rates of like 5 degrees would probably work. Don't think the atmosphere will oblige us. Maybe the warm front gets hung up across NY and never makes it in here... Thanks. I’m hating the nam look right now. Praying it’s just the nam doing nam things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 44 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thanks. I’m hating the nam look right now. Praying it’s just the nam doing nam things. I remember there was a day maybe ten or twelve years ago that looked like a historic NE outbreak. I seem to recall the SPC had a 10 or 15% hatched tornado for us in the outlook. Shear was awesome, instability was sufficient, strong trigger....but we overlooked the lapse rates, which were awful. Lo and behold, whatever updrafts tried to go up were feeble and just got blown over by the shear. Brutal bust, so painful I can't even recall when that day was. Edit: found it. June 6, 2010. 80 kt jet, 60 kt bulk shear, raging llj, 45% hatched wind, 10% tornado. Epic epic bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 24 minutes ago, Hoth said: I remember there was a day maybe ten or twelve years ago that looked like a historic NE outbreak. I seem to recall the SPC had a 10 or 15% hatched tornado for us in the outlook. Shear was awesome, instability was sufficient, strong trigger....but we overlooked the lapse rates, which were awful. Lo and behold, whatever updrafts tried to go up were feeble and just got blown over by the shear. Brutal bust, so painful I can't even recall when that day was. Edit: found it. June 6, 2010. 80 kt jet, 60 kt bulk shear, raging llj, 45% hatched wind, 10% tornado. Epic epic bust. Bust in the TOR department but there were several microbursts. Lapse rates were forecast to be pretty good actually but AM crap sort of weakened them. Never did generate a good amount of MLCAPE and shear was just too much for the updrafts and that hurt convection from becoming deep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 0z HRRR looking rather nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: 0z HRRR looking rather nasty. Not as isolated either. Only certainty is we either see a lot of "DAMAGE" or "stein" posts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 oh great COD stopped working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: 0z HRRR looking rather nasty. Looks less potent here than the nam though. Hopefully this gets more isolated tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Has there ever been a significant New England tornado with this particular setup (As modeled) before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Think we'll get a moderate risk at the midnight update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 NAM never gets the front through here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Hopefully the NAM is wrong and other CAMs like Href are right getting the front to the pike ,but It certainly could be. It gets bd happy . My gut says far SW CT and SE NY state . We may get Steined again. We’ll aee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Probably severe Steined except for srn and SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Probably severe Steined except for srn and SW CT. So other CAMs too far north with front to pike to Pvd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So other CAMs too far north with front to pike to Pvd? There are a couple that generate stuff over you. I'm just not sure there is enough destabilization in time. HREF looks like lower Hudson valley into SW CT not far from HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Nice trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice trends. Hopefully you lose a roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully you lose a roof. FU. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 lol I’m joking Scoots but seriously...looks like its crapping out some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Phone forecast would leave you to believe today is going to be a washout.... I don’t see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 Today is just going to be a question of instability I think. I do think we'll get the warm front into CT and probably very close to Hartford. We're talking about effective bulk shear values approaching 60 knots with effective helicity values of 300 m2s2...if we push MLCAPE ~2,000+ J/KG (which is possible) there is going to be some big time trouble today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 As long as Wizzy is posting today, this will be NBD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There are a couple that generate stuff over you. I'm just not sure there is enough destabilization in time. HREF looks like lower Hudson valley into SW CT not far from HFD. I’m wondering if it even rains much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Ha..just in time. OK, we’re safe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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