CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, CT Rain said: Drizzle in Tolland? Roofs off in Southington? Hate to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Could see lower Hudson Valley with some nastiness for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Drizzle in Tolland? Roofs off in Southington? Works for me. Power is a good thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Drizzle in Tolland? Roofs off in Southington? Your entire viewing area gonna get rocked tomorrow. Ginx to DXR to Union to Greenwich. We wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Your entire viewing area gonna get rocked tomorrow. Ginx to DXR to Union to Greenwich. We wild Meanwhile, here in reality, Chris's point is very good. Doesn't look like a widespread event but rather a real nasty cluster of storms near and along the warm front. Too far south is capped and too far north is wedged. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Meanwhile, here in reality, Chris's point is very good. Doesn't look like a widespread event but rather a real nasty cluster of storms near and along the warm front. Too far south is capped and too far north is wedged. Right across the CT / MA border. Will be watching you go wild on air in a few The biggest question with regard to who sees the worst weather will be where the strong instability is coincident with the strong shear. This will be in the vicinity of and south of the warm front; just how far north that front makes it is still uncertain. At this time it looks to hang up generally along or just north of the MA/CT border. Given this placement the best chance of severe storms will be southwest MA/CT, and RI. Severe pote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Your entire viewing area gonna get rocked tomorrow. Ginx to DXR to Union to Greenwich. We wild Tornadoes in Middletown, wild fires in Bigelow Hollow from the drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Will it be discrete cells ahead of a line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 6 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Debating if I want to do BDL tomorrow or go towards SW CT. Just tough to find good areas with wide open views down there. Could do Newtown...there's a few spots I know. Danbury is a no-no given the COVID spike. Route 133 in Bridgewater. 700+ ASL. Plus incredible vistas to the south and west. Unbeatable for watching incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 41 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Tornadoes in Middletown, wild fires in Bigelow Hollow from the drought Firenado warnings flying tomorrow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2020 Author Share Posted August 26, 2020 OH MY GOD 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Baseball hall of fame could be in danger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 What does this map show? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2020 Author Share Posted August 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: What does this map show? probabilistic probability of a significant tornado (EF2+) based on a combination of forecast mixed-layer CAPE, mixed-layer LCL height, 0-1km helicity, and bulk shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Dam them are some high numbers then. Thanks. I am in rochester ny area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Think a moderate rusk goes up for upstate ny to sw new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2020 Author Share Posted August 26, 2020 I don't recall ever seeing a 60 up this way...though it may have happened with 05/15/2018. If the damaging wind signal becomes widespread I think we could see a moderate risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: I don't recall ever seeing a 60 up this way...though it may have happened with 05/15/2018. If the damaging wind signal becomes widespread I think we could see a moderate risk. I'm not entirely surprised to see that composite go high. All guidance agrees on one thing: where the warm front settles will be a focus for severe weather. They differ a little on placement, but the evolution is quite consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't recall ever seeing a 60 up this way...though it may have happened with 05/15/2018. If the damaging wind signal becomes widespread I think we could see a moderate risk. 6/1/11 in eastern NY perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, tim123 said: Think a moderate rusk goes up for upstate ny to sw new england The areal coverage may be too small for a mod risk. Finally had a chance to look at the models after spending way too much time in the tropical forums. As has been mentioned this looks to be very tightly focused on the warm front in the afternoon, which most of the CAMs are placing approx. on a line running NW/SE from just S of Albany to near New London, give or take 30 miles depending on the model. There will likely be a supercell somewhere in this area, beyond that its not so clear cut. A small mod risk is remotely possible if the models come further into agreement on placement of the front I suppose. I agree the numbers are very nice looking right now, but that's really only over a relatively small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2020 Author Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, OceanStWx said: I'm not entirely surprised to see that composite go high. All guidance agrees on one thing: where the warm front settles will be a focus for severe weather. They differ a little on placement, but the evolution is quite consistent. I think this composite overdoes things at times but I mean...the ingredients are there and like you said, where warm front settles it's probably going to be big. Also noting that 18z is kinda focusing the boundary a bit more SW...also noting that forecast soundings actually back the llvl winds a bit (and not in the good way) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2020 Author Share Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoth said: 6/1/11 in eastern NY perhaps. I honestly don't know if the probs were even that high then. maybe 45 but I can't recall seeing a 60 but who knows...memory fading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2020 Author Share Posted August 26, 2020 Waterbury, CT on the NAM 4 PM tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: Waterbury, CT on the NAM 4 PM tomorrow Yeah, that's not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, ct_yankee said: The areal coverage may be too small for a mod risk. Finally had a chance to look at the models after spending way too much time in the tropical forums. As has been mentioned this looks to be very tightly focused on the warm front in the afternoon, which most of the CAMs are placing approx. on a line running NW/SE from just S of Albany to near New London, give or take 30 miles depending on the model. There will likely be a supercell somewhere in this area, beyond that its not so clear cut. A small mod risk is remotely possible if the models come further into agreement on placement of the front I suppose. I agree the numbers are very nice looking right now, but that's really only over a relatively small area. You would need an area of 45% hatched winds, which is probably a little too much to ask out of this event. I could see 45% wind, but hatched may be a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 I hate this shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I hate this shit. You need to change your name to Damage In Southbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 5 hours ago, Henry's Weather said: My shoddy analysis. Am I right in thinking Kingston area is the place to be? Def sink that SW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think this composite overdoes things at times but I mean...the ingredients are there and like you said, where warm front settles it's probably going to be big. Also noting that 18z is kinda focusing the boundary a bit more SW...also noting that forecast soundings actually back the llvl winds a bit (and not in the good way) There is definitely a bias towards the CAPE side since that's the easy one to get over the threshold, but overall it does a fair job for areal coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2020 Author Share Posted August 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah, that's not great. That is super scary...that much CAPE with over 400 m2s2 of helicity. Nothing good can come from that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now