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Significant Severe Weather Event Possible Thursday, August 27, 2020


weatherwiz
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 A high end severe weather event is possible with
damaging wind and large hail. Warm fronts are always dangerous
in these environments as they provide a source for enhanced low
level shear so a tornado or two is also possible. The CAMs
indicate that discrete storms may eventually evolve into
multicellular line segments.

The greatest risk appears to be in northern CT and SW MA where
HREF is suggesting robust updraft helicity probs.
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8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is really interesting. Not sure I can remember such rapid WAA and rapid destabilization like it shows. 

Didn't that happen 5/31/98? 

Anyways...not sure how it translates to here but I know out west in those scenarios tend to lead to significant events...and rapid fire too. such rapid WAA an destabilization just yields such vigorous upward vertical motion...which also can be a factor with increasing SRH.

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11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

All three days Thursday through Saturday look troublesome or certainly could turn out that way with that front oscillating in the area ... accentuated helictites long it with unusual thermal gradient for this time of the year either side is intriguing. 
 

Seems that EOF1swarm idea had shifted more to Saturday with organized cyclone mechanics in the area but the boundary  itself could be active for a couple days before that ...wherever ultimately sets up

And Saturday looks really bad to me on the 00z Euro... 

In fact, the behavior of the pressure pattern and QPF matches climo typology for tornadic events over eastern NY the upper MA and interior SNE ... with a pretty clearly define morning straif of elevated convection along a warm front strongly supported by synoptic detailing, giving way to warm sector intrusion to lower VT/NH ... and along the residual warm frontal axis arcing into upstate NY there are very intense convective nodes exploding in the model resolution of what happens next...   Those are super cells folks - no question given the W 70-90 kt 500 mb flow running collocated overtop a sun steamed, fresh theta-e transported low level thermal ridge ( 850s 20 C CT over SE Massachusetts!), and heights tending to fall overtop from west to east across the area between 18z and 00z Sunday... The key is.. warm intrusion and fresh falls of BL rains near 12z clears out and this creates a pal of SB CAPE anomaly in the area...if we go back and look at the daily behavior prior to '89, Monson 2010, even ORH '53 ...and the Mohawk Trail MCS June 10 '87 ...these are all fine examples of what to look for and were remarkably similar with dawn rumble rains that peeled away and sun-soared to mid 80s/72 blue-tinted bath water hillsides ... ensuing jet mechanics nosing in mid day from the west...  That's Saturday incarnate -

I mean Oklahomans might feel jealous looking at these general synoptic parameters.   

Devil's in the details with convection though ...so, this is just what I've gleaned off Pivotal - there may be distractions I'm not seeing or are unaware therein but ... it's like Thursday and Friday have their intrigue, but Saturday was painted with unique convergence of parameters constructing a convective appeal on a guidance that is very tough to beat at time ranges < 120 hours.

I would change the title to three days of potential and just encapsulate the whole saga -

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7 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

Wiz get driving to Cobleskill NY now, great position to be in to drive East and chase em !!! :twister:

I should be able to "chase" tomorrow...by chasing I mean sit at BDL (that's my goal). Or maybe go towards SW CT depending on how it looks. But I don't think I'll be going out-of-state with all the quarantine guidelines in place...although NY and MA aren't on the list but still. 

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1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

For those of us with short memories, the enhanced risk used now was once the moderate risk, no?

I think it was still a slight...for moderate I think you needed 45% wind (or 30% hatched)...I think hail too but maybe it was 30% for hail and 10% for TOR. But given this is a day 2 outlook b/c the 30% wind is hatched that may have qualified for a moderate...I forget. 

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36 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

It’s going to seem strange following these next two severe weather threats especially after feeling the refreshing airmass that we have today. Sure doesn’t “feel” like it 

in a bushman's vision ...that's why though. 

This is anomalous air mass for seasonal change... It's not even a preview ( 'shot across the bow') really ...strikes me as a fluke. I like shot across the bow, breaking back air masses to be anchored in a definitive pattern modulation... This is a weird thing that I think is related to another popsicle headache... Anyway, 18 hours later summer tries to surge back, and homage to the idea that it's still there... And that's a problem ...when you have still active moisture draining off foliage and evaporation of soil moisture content in the midwest and Lakes regions .. mixing with tumbling 17+C 850 mb temperatures ready to surge right back in, this unusualness of the severe set up for this time of year...is sort of indicative of this 18 to 24 hour fluke air mass... Correct one way, snap back - 

It's really difficult up our way too...because our topography/geographical feed backs offer more forcing that stall or even reverse warm fronts.  Basically, because the land falls out in elevation from underneath the troposphere when east of NY/VT/NH. Vectors lifting over the western hills/mountains and general higher elevation, sets up a kind of "invisible" counter-vector that rolls the atmosphere and tacks back W-S at lower levels east of said axis... There's a forcing back SW... at all time below 800 or so mb.  This is why BDs seem to get pulled back down the coast...it's more than just the mass discontinuity ...That's the start, but that motion of air then gets a kick-back from that tacked vector and then the boundary over achieves... it's why in late April, a common almost fixture of fronts stalled in the area is that fronts align smartly due E until about Albany, then curvilinearly descend SE and wrap around NE and even go back N over the water E of Cape Cod... It's that rolling motion that retarding.  It's also why we "tuck" in the winter and enjoy ice storms while PF in N. VT is 52 F at mid slope. 

 

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