Significant Severe Weather Event Possible Thursday, August 27, 2020

[CoastalWx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Drizzle in Tolland? Roofs off in Southington?

Hate to see it. 

[CoastalWx]

Could see lower Hudson Valley with some nastiness for sure. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Drizzle in Tolland? Roofs off in Southington?

Works for me. Power is a good thing 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Drizzle in Tolland? Roofs off in Southington?

Your entire viewing area gonna get rocked tomorrow. Ginx to DXR to Union to Greenwich. We wild 

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your entire viewing area gonna get rocked tomorrow. Ginx to DXR to Union to Greenwich. We wild 

Meanwhile, here in reality, Chris's point is very good. Doesn't look like a widespread event but rather a real nasty cluster of storms near and along the warm front. Too far south is capped and too far north is wedged. 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Meanwhile, here in reality, Chris's point is very good. Doesn't look like a widespread event but rather a real nasty cluster of storms near and along the warm front. Too far south is capped and too far north is wedged. 

Right across the CT / MA border. Will be watching you go wild on air in a few 

The biggest question with regard to who sees the worst weather
will be where the strong instability is coincident with the
strong shear. This will be in the vicinity of and south of the
warm front; just how far north that front makes it is still
uncertain. At this time it looks to hang up generally along or
just north of the MA/CT border. Given this placement the best
chance of severe storms will be southwest MA/CT, and RI. Severe
pote

[Modfan2]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your entire viewing area gonna get rocked tomorrow. Ginx to DXR to Union to Greenwich. We wild 

Tornadoes in Middletown, wild fires in Bigelow Hollow from the drought

[Henry's Weather]

Will it be discrete cells ahead of a line? 

[Gwhizkids]

6 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Debating if I want to do BDL tomorrow or go towards SW CT. Just tough to find good areas with wide open views down there. Could do Newtown...there's a few spots I know. Danbury is a no-no given the COVID spike. 

Route 133 in Bridgewater.  700+ ASL.  Plus incredible vistas to the south and west. Unbeatable for watching incoming.

[Hoth]

41 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Tornadoes in Middletown, wild fires in Bigelow Hollow from the drought

Firenado warnings flying tomorrow?

[weatherwiz]

OH MY GOD

[Cyclone-68]

Baseball hall of fame could be in danger 

[tim123]

What does this map show?

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, tim123 said:

What does this map show?

probabilistic probability of a significant tornado (EF2+) based on a combination of forecast mixed-layer CAPE, mixed-layer LCL height, 0-1km helicity, and bulk shear

[tim123]

Dam them are some high numbers then. Thanks. I am in rochester ny area.

[tim123]

Think a moderate rusk goes up for upstate ny to sw new england

[weatherwiz]

I don't recall ever seeing a 60 up this way...though it may have happened with 05/15/2018. If the damaging wind signal becomes widespread I think we could see a moderate risk. 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I don't recall ever seeing a 60 up this way...though it may have happened with 05/15/2018. If the damaging wind signal becomes widespread I think we could see a moderate risk. 

I'm not entirely surprised to see that composite go high. All guidance agrees on one thing: where the warm front settles will be a focus for severe weather. They differ a little on placement, but the evolution is quite consistent.

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't recall ever seeing a 60 up this way...though it may have happened with 05/15/2018. If the damaging wind signal becomes widespread I think we could see a moderate risk. 

6/1/11 in eastern NY perhaps.

[ct_yankee]

Just now, tim123 said:

Think a moderate rusk goes up for upstate ny to sw new england

The areal coverage may be too small for a mod risk. Finally had a chance to look at the models after spending way too much time in the tropical forums. As has been mentioned this looks to be very tightly focused on the warm front in the afternoon, which most of the CAMs are placing approx. on a line running NW/SE from just S of Albany to near New London, give or take 30 miles depending on the model. There will likely be a supercell somewhere in this area, beyond that its not so clear cut. A small mod risk is remotely possible if the models come further into agreement on placement of the front I suppose. I agree the numbers are very nice looking right now, but that's really only over a relatively small area.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

I'm not entirely surprised to see that composite go high. All guidance agrees on one thing: where the warm front settles will be a focus for severe weather. They differ a little on placement, but the evolution is quite consistent.

I think this composite overdoes things at times but I mean...the ingredients are there and like you said, where warm front settles it's probably going to be big. Also noting that 18z is kinda focusing the boundary a bit more SW...also noting that forecast soundings actually back the llvl winds a bit (and not in the good way)

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

6/1/11 in eastern NY perhaps.

I honestly don't know if the probs were even that high then. maybe 45 but I can't recall seeing a 60 but who knows...memory fading  

[weatherwiz]

Waterbury, CT on the NAM 4 PM tomorrow

[CT Rain]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Waterbury, CT on the NAM 4 PM tomorrow

Yeah, that's not great. 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

The areal coverage may be too small for a mod risk. Finally had a chance to look at the models after spending way too much time in the tropical forums. As has been mentioned this looks to be very tightly focused on the warm front in the afternoon, which most of the CAMs are placing approx. on a line running NW/SE from just S of Albany to near New London, give or take 30 miles depending on the model. There will likely be a supercell somewhere in this area, beyond that its not so clear cut. A small mod risk is remotely possible if the models come further into agreement on placement of the front I suppose. I agree the numbers are very nice looking right now, but that's really only over a relatively small area.

You would need an area of 45% hatched winds, which is probably a little too much to ask out of this event. I could see 45% wind, but hatched may be a stretch. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I hate this shit.

[Hoth]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I hate this shit.

You need to change your name to Damage In Southbury.

[dmillz25]

5 hours ago, Henry's Weather said:

My shoddy analysis. Am I right in thinking Kingston area is the place to be?

Def sink that SW

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think this composite overdoes things at times but I mean...the ingredients are there and like you said, where warm front settles it's probably going to be big. Also noting that 18z is kinda focusing the boundary a bit more SW...also noting that forecast soundings actually back the llvl winds a bit (and not in the good way)

There is definitely a bias towards the CAPE side since that's the easy one to get over the threshold, but overall it does a fair job for areal coverage. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah, that's not great. 

That is super scary...that much CAPE with over 400 m2s2 of helicity. Nothing good can come from that