CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 I mean, does Scooter know or what. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right.. now post the FV3 and EPS Redneck Stein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: Suckerhole. Point is it’s wet for the region as a whole. I agree someone in the northeast gets a couple inches of rain. To me the best bet for that is NE Pa to VT and probably NJ/ NYC. Scooter has a rule about widespread qpf in warm months .Heavy qpf ends up much less widespread than modeled. Convection robs moisture transport. I still believe many of us see under .75 for the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I agree someone in the northeast gets a couple inches of rain. To me the best bet for that is NE Pa to VT and probably NJ/ NYC. Scooter has a rule about widespread qpf in warm months .Heavy qpf ends up much less widespread than modeled. Convection robs moisture transport. I still believe many of us see under .75 for the week This is more of a colder season pattern with a deep trough to the west. I don't think that rule applies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Might be a sneaky band in ctrl and ern areas Monday too. In any case, the next two weeks offer several chances it seems. Stein is dead after mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is more of a colder season pattern with a deep trough to the west. I don't think that rule applies. It’s a warm , humid air mass. It’s a warm system. To me it does apply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 27 minutes ago, dendrite said: Suckerhole. Point is it’s wet for the region as a whole. When 1.7 is a sucker hole well.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: This is more of a colder season pattern with a deep trough to the west. I don't think that rule applies. Just now, CoastalWx said: Might be a sneaky band in ctrl and ern areas Monday too. In any case, the next two weeks offer several chances it seems. Stein is dead after mid week. Stein will go down like a cold frosty beer. This ain’t your summertime blues pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is more of a colder season pattern with a deep trough to the west. I don't think that rule applies. Tell him it ain't summah anymore Skippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a warm , humid air mass. It’s a warm system. To me it does apply To me, this applies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 26, 2020 Author Share Posted September 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I agree someone in the northeast gets a couple inches of rain. To me the best bet for that is NE Pa to VT and probably NJ/ NYC. Scooter has a rule about widespread qpf in warm months .Heavy qpf ends up much less widespread than modeled. Convection robs moisture transport. I still believe many of us see under .75 for the week What constitutes 'warm months"? End of Sept/Early October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 12 hours ago, powderfreak said: -2.8 on the month now after yesterday’s +7. We are going to eat into that pretty good but I bet we can get a BN September for the first time in a while. Was -2.7 after last Tuesday, 3 straight AN days have cut that to -1.8. Would need to average +9 these last 5 days to avoid the month being BN. Could be close but I think we end up about -0.5, essentially average. Mid 40s this morning so today should be +5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a warm , humid air mass. It’s a warm system. To me it does apply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 26, 2020 Author Share Posted September 26, 2020 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I agree someone in the northeast gets a couple inches of rain. To me the best bet for that is NE Pa to VT and probably NJ/ NYC. Scooter has a rule about widespread qpf in warm months .Heavy qpf ends up much less widespread than modeled. Convection robs moisture transport. I still believe many of us see under .75 for the week 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is more of a colder season pattern with a deep trough to the west. I don't think that rule applies. 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a warm , humid air mass. It’s a warm system. To me it does apply Kevin arguing Scooter on the application of Scooter's rule. Classic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, tamarack said: Was -2.7 after last Tuesday, 3 straight AN days have cut that to -1.8. Would need to average +9 these last 5 days to avoid the month being BN. Could be close but I think we end up about -0.5, essentially average. Mid 40s this morning so today should be +5-6. Basically neutral departure here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Kevin arguing Scooter on the application of Scooter's rule. Classic. It’s not really a rule. It’s one of those things that when you have a lack of good forcing and a blob of convection modeled, you tend to have less moisture downwind of this and the heavier rain will end up more east and south. It’s more for those MCS type deals moving to the ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Basically neutral departure here now. Yeah another AN September enroute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: To me, this applies. Hey.. if we all get inches of rain like you’re saying next week, I’ll be the first to salute you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 26, 2020 Author Share Posted September 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not really a rule. It’s one of those things that when you have a lack of good forcing and a blob of convection modeled, you tend to have less moisture downwind of this and the heavier rain will end up more east and south. It’s more for those MCS type deals moving to the ESE. Someone else had called it a rule. Either way, lets get the show on the road for winter qpf discussions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 A little bit of mist here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: A little bit of mist here this morning. Yep, ground is wet here. 60/54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 30 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: A little bit of mist here this morning. Heaviest precip I've had in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 32 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Heaviest precip I've had in a week. 2 weeks and a day since even a trace here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 2 weeks and a day since even a trace here We definitely had some rain showers in the area last week that had actual drop of rain falling from the sky (not enough to even wet the pavement), but otherwise we've had several of these mist events that triggered a T at PWM. Otherwise we're at two weeks without measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 2 weeks and a day since even a trace here Yeah, he's lucky if he's had a trace in the past week. I think .10" was my single biggest rainfall in the past month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Some fantastic color around my house (right on the edge of the hockomock swamp) and heading up 495 to go apple picking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Face timed with our daughter last night. She stated colors are fabulous up there. I’ll be in NH next weekend for our annual men’s weekend (45 years and running!). We’ll head up to VT late week-around the 7-8th depending on my wife’s work schedule... Seasons changing-but for now back to shorts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 32 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Some fantastic color around my house (right on the edge of the hockomock swamp) and heading up 495 to go apple picking Unreal how fast it changed. We will peak weeks early. Heavy rain next week will take down the drought weakened leaves 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: To me, this applies. Defense mechanism running overtime these days. The models look widespread very wet, hard to argue against it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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