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September 2020 Discussion


moneypitmike
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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

AS Stein of us thought. Winners all summer from NE PA to VT keep winning . Rest lose 

DIT,  next weeks axis could be NW but there are more systems to follow.  GFS shows that if we look all the way out.  Impossible to know exact winners and losers but we are going into a more active pattern and should be able to chip away at these deficits.  

gfs.jpg

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4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

DIT,  next weeks axis could be NW but there are more systems to follow.  GFS shows that if we look all the way out.  Impossible to know exact winners and losers but we are going into a more active pattern and should be able to chip away at these deficits.  

gfs.jpg

Hope so Gene . The one caveat that has plagued us since last spring .. we’ve seen many model runs and ensembles showing widespread soakings like that depicts and it has ended up being in a relatively narrow zone . Outside that zone it’s rained, but not enough to help the drought . I have no doubts everyone sees raindrops over the next few weeks, but I do doubt everyone is soaked and Stein leaves 

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12 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

DIT,  next weeks axis could be NW but there are more systems to follow.  GFS shows that if we look all the way out.  Impossible to know exact winners and losers but we are going into a more active pattern and should be able to chip away at these deficits.  

gfs.jpg

You have to chuckle at this with the minimum over DIT, even if it is 1.5”+.

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hmmm,  might be time to harvest certain herbal medicinal plants, that have flowers which are easily affected by powdery mildew.

Talk to quite a few growers up here and that seems to be a big problem this year, Now with rain on the way, You can add in bud rot to watch out for.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Days and days of rain on the euro.

 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's probably wrong with the s/w in the south, but that is wet AF.

With the pattern change, we should not so easily toss the solution for as abysmal as the Euro has been over the Summer.  Caution flags flying for solid rain potential with this deep trough.

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5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I was going to take Monday the 5th off with the wife to do a NNE day drive maybe over to the Whites and back through NEK of VT for some foliage viewing... I think we are going to go this Monday now.  I'm afraid the 5th will be too late for this northern band from here to Alex/Phin.

Folks waiting until mid October this year for foliage will be disappointed when they end up in stick season instead.

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It's an excessively charge and sensitive flow due to higher energy/potential available.. 

Early season trough expression is imposing an enormous gradient between the polarward side of the polar jet, dipping to almost the OV as it is... and the lingering summer tapestry that is roughtly SFO -HAT remaining... 

Small perturbations that tap into that latent potential may be blowing out of proportion..that pressure depiction there appears constructed out of that as it is unnaturally discrete relative to the surrounding integration - it is actually does sort of look a little like a captured tropical entity without actually having had one being captured - that's usually some sort of a-bomb feedback BS in the model(s) when we see this -

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