September 2020 Discussion

[CoastalWx]

Just now, tamarack said:

Ill, maybe, but here at least it would take a week with 3"+ to inflict a fatal would.  Not seeing it.

I just mean the pattern in general. Quite different compared to what we had. 

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Throw a pic up. 

In a little bit, got a bunch from this morning that may need to wait till this evening to get off the real camera.

You know the pics are coming as I get them .

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

In a little bit, got a bunch from this morning that may need to wait till this evening to get off the real camera.

I'm kind of bummed it's so early. Was hoping to have some visible in a couple of weeks. I'm sure it will still be good in the lakes region. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I'm kind of bummed it's so early. Was hoping to have some visible in a couple of weeks. I'm sure it will still be good in the lakes region. 

Yeah I was going to take Monday the 5th off with the wife to do a NNE day drive maybe over to the Whites and back through NEK of VT for some foliage viewing... I think we are going to go this Monday now.  I'm afraid the 5th will be too late for this northern band from here to Alex/Phin.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Fallacy.   It took my awhile ro reconjure falsy....back to adolescence

i generally agree but make no mistake-life before modern medicine (antibiotics, vaccination for diseases like polio) was very hard and often unpleasant.   “What’s it leave in....what’s it leave out”-Bob Seger in “Against the Wind”.

That is true for the western world but Traditional Asian medicines and Indian Ayurvedic medicine were resulting in much longer life spans than we’re seen in European cultures. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm kind of bummed it's so early. Was hoping to have some visible in a couple of weeks. I'm sure it will still be good in the lakes region. 

It seems like every other year,  just when foliage is peaking, we get a screaming Sou’ Easter to suck all of the leaves off the trees like an autumn grinch.  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Fallacy.   It took my awhile ro reconjure falsy....back to adolescence

i generally agree but make no mistake-life before modern medicine (antibiotics, vaccination for diseases like polio) was very hard and often unpleasant.   “What’s it leave in....what’s it leave out”-Bob Seger in “Against the Wind”.

It took "me" awhile

I know these autocorrects sometimes assume we are dipshit 14-year olds loitering in Mall food courts and insist on running back along sentences to pattern match dipshit speak

[PhineasC]

52 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Our dug well is only 8' deep but has a good spring as its source; the normal level is at 5' but it's now down by 21".  Was down 24" in 2002, but the 3' depth means about 300 gallons, though the bottom 50 may be below the foot valve.  0.15" for the month so far and 0.03" over the past 3 week.
Some very nice reds and yellows in our area, though right near the house it's fairly dull, as always.  Approaching 50% change, about 10 days ahead of average - 3 straight mid-20s mornings will do that.

The last 2 feet of water or so seems to be holding on for the moment. Hopefully that is where the water table is sitting. The guys up here keep telling me I am worrying for nothing and that well hasn't ever run out because there is "plenty of water on the hill." We will see. I am a worrier so I keep looking in there...

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That is true for the western world but Traditional Asian medicines and Indian Ayurvedic medicine were resulting in much longer life spans than we’re seen in European cultures. 

You know .. when I first opined that it was droll-intended.. sort of tongue-in-cheek cynical take on things.  But, upon further thought, that whole rah-rah- championing the heroes of yester-millenia, doesn't really (ethically) excuse anything - it is in fact, irrelevantly applied whenever the topic comes up in the context of "yeah, BUT" - SO what?.  

That whole trope portrait of ancient 40 year-old leathery faced scurvy ridden ... walking both ways ...up hill in blizzards bear-foot while sucking on bacon jerked tobacco vitamins, because they didn't know any better than to us the daily leeches on their hemorrhoids .. What does that have to with people sucking off the entitlement teet of industrial affluence?

Nah, it comes off as an auto- response, where/when tactically... one hears some semblance of truth in there ... (which yar, they didn't have our advantages - okay) so they suspend any objective evaluation and assume it's okay to continue engaging in whatever...?  Aside from typology,  such urban legends usually don't hold up when intellectual weighting of facts or even 'realistic worldly' impressions of history are comparatively involved. 

Seems tactically morally evasive ... I mean culture is not all bad, no. But frankly, the perils facing humanity ... from environmental horrors looming, to overpopulation giving rise to Pandemics and back...  we can't even say these plights are self-chosen, because that central point of 'entitlement' conditions people  right passed such introspection or self-restraint. There's no connection ... it's just 'where's my ranch-dressing hose.'  We are wandering proverbially sightless through a wonder of extravagant stimuli, programmed to an assumption of delivery like helpless chicks in a nest with their mouths agape waiting for their next tasty meal .. cluelessly salivating. 

I'm no sociologist .. .but, we take an immensely powerful engine of ingenuity, the collective engineering mind of Humanity ( which in a philosophical sense..is proving to be one of the greatest geological events in planetary history), apply it to a natural setting submerged in volatile and reactive chemistries, and with all that potential ... out pops hero educators struggling to make ends meet, and Wall Street, demagogue presidents, and would it even shock if future historians uncover ... cures for ailments that were kept under wraps because large Pharma would go out of business if managed care no longer required cyclical drug application... List goes on -

Not saying that is Jerry or singling out any one or group as doing that... but western culturally rooted modernity's ongoing, teeming interaction ends up painting a distasteful gestalt from a distance..  And, that counterpoint oft employed to justify it .. it is a fallacy at water coolers, parking lots outside of churches, and talk show hosting - it's a culturally evasive tactic to justify a lot of shit. 

Firstly, that was not true everywhere - no.  There were people living into their 90's... three centuries ago.  It's a matter of having more of them now, then back then.. yes -

And it wouldn't really matter so much ...it really wouldn't.  Like I opined in that cynical missive up there ... all 'morality' and 'virtuosity,' these are just human perception constructs.. Sometimes we have to remind ourselves, there are no Natural Laws - like E=MC2, or PV=NRT, or genetic theory..etc..etc - that describe the framework of what we think of as right, wrong, and the value of money. We get caught up in them as having some sort of particular relevancy to the natural order of the cosmos but: Remove humanity, and they do not exist; remove humanity, the former list of physical machinery will always exist.  Which should be the bible ?

They are infinitely subjective, self-perpetuating illusions that are in part instinctual, in part learned, in a species that has cooperative, socially-oriented dependency built right into their DNA.  It's a fascinating philosophical sort of quandary .. because, one can argue completely correctly: that any contrivance of man IS a part of the cosmos too - 

 

[powderfreak]

WTF is this liquid?  Even enough to wet the ground!

Might even get up to 0.03” lol.  It's been like 3 weeks.

 

[kdxken]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know .. when I first opined that it was droll-intended.. sort of tongue-in-cheek cynical take on things.  But, upon further thought, that whole rah-rah- championing the heroes of yester-millenia, doesn't really (ethically) excuse anything - it is in fact, irrelevantly applied whenever the topic comes up in the context of "yeah, BUT" - SO what?.  

That whole trope portrait of ancient 40 year-old leathery faced scurvy ridden ... walking both ways ...up hill in blizzards bear-foot while sucking on bacon jerked tobacco vitamins, because they didn't know any better than to us the daily leeches on their hemorrhoids .. What does that have to with people sucking off the entitlement teet of industrial affluence?

Nah, it comes off as an auto- response, where/when tactically... one hears some semblance of truth in there ... (which yar, they didn't have our advantages - okay) so they suspend any objective evaluation and assume it's okay to continue engaging in whatever...?  Aside from typology,  such urban legends usually don't hold up when intellectual weighting of facts or even 'realistic worldly' impressions of history are comparatively involved. 

Seems tactically morally evasive ... I mean culture is not all bad, no. But frankly, the perils facing humanity ... from environmental horrors looming, to overpopulation giving rise to Pandemics and back...  we can't even say these plights are self-chosen, because that central point of 'entitlement' conditions people  right passed such introspection or self-restraint. There's no connection ... it's just 'where's my ranch-dressing hose.'  We are wandering proverbially sightless through a wonder of extravagant stimuli, programmed to an assumption of delivery like helpless chicks in a nest with their mouths agape waiting for their next tasty meal .. cluelessly salivating. 

I'm no sociologist .. .but, we take an immensely powerful engine of ingenuity, the collective engineering mind of Humanity ( which in a philosophical sense..is proving to be one of the greatest geological events in planetary history), apply it to a natural setting submerged in volatile and reactive chemistries, and with all that potential ... out pops hero educators struggling to make ends meet, and Wall Street, demagogue presidents, and would it even shock if future historians uncover ... cures for ailments that were kept under wraps because large Pharma would go out of business if managed care no longer required cyclical drug application... List goes on -

Not saying that is Jerry or singling out any one or group as doing that... but western culturally rooted modernity's ongoing, teeming interaction ends up painting a distasteful gestalt from a distance..  And, that counterpoint oft employed to justify it .. it is a fallacy at water coolers, parking lots outside of churches, and talk show hosting - it's a culturally evasive tactic to justify a lot of shit. 

Firstly, that was not true everywhere - no.  There were people living into their 90's... three centuries ago.  It's a matter of having more of them now, then back then.. yes -

And it wouldn't really matter so much ...it really wouldn't.  Like I opined in that cynical missive up there ... all 'morality' and 'virtuosity,' these are just human perception constructs.. Sometimes we have to remind ourselves, there are no Natural Laws - like E=MC2, or PV=NRT, or genetic theory..etc..etc - that describe the framework of what we think of as right, wrong, and the value of money. We get caught up in them as having some sort of particular relevancy to the natural order of the cosmos but: Remove humanity, and they do not exist; remove humanity, the former list of physical machinery will always exist.  Which should be the bible ?

They are infinitely subjective, self-perpetuating illusions that are in part instinctual, in part learned, in a species that has cooperative, socially-oriented dependency built right into their DNA.  It's a fascinating philosophical sort of quandary .. because, one can argue completely correctly: that any contrivance of man IS a part of the cosmos too - 

 

Busy day at work?

[mahk_webstah]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm kind of bummed it's so early. Was hoping to have some visible in a couple of weeks. I'm sure it will still be good in the lakes region. 

Just starting here.  Here is me with the new pup and you can see the color is starting.  It should be great in 2 weeks.  We are probably 20-30 miles sw of the lakes.

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Busy day at work?

No ... I was responding to a specific persons... Otherwise? readers that expect to be served instant fun and pleasures without thinking as a way of life -

[CoastalWx]

Ryan said 495 in SE MA had amazing foliage. Probably the frosty weather bringing out the swamp maples.

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Just starting here.  Here is me with the new pup and you can see the color is starting.  It should be great in 2 weeks.  We are probably 20-30 miles sw of the lakes.

I want that Golden pup.  You are lucky!

[Damage In Tolland]

[PhineasC]

2" of rain would be awesome. I'd prefer 4" or more however.

[Bostonseminole]

models don't seem to have a good handle imo.. probably won't know till early next week, does look like 1"+ for many.

[MJO812]

Models getting wetter for next week

[Typhoon Tip]

This always happens on Oct 10 ..huh,

...I mean...with that salmon mix zone? That's like riding a winter cyclone up a cold wall, mid winter form ... not just some dynamical core of cat pawing there

Here's the problem I'm having with this... I think it is more plausible now, than it was in 1980 [ enter climate modulation/causality here ]

For one, ... decadal trend:  forget geophysical reasoning/mechanism, it's snowing in Octobers some 1/3 to 1/2 of the years since 2000; prior to then?  ... just existentially off the top of the head ...maybe 3 times in 30 years.  

Something is promoting these early season "folded synoptic" flow constructs - which is just personal labeling of a phenomenon to arc the flow in western Canada and concomitantly plumbing heights S over the eastern continent - as an autumnal affliction.  

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That is true for the western world but Traditional Asian medicines and Indian Ayurvedic medicine were resulting in much longer life spans than we’re seen in European cultures. 

Nope.  1800 life expectancy from birth in India was 25.

China was 32 in 1850.  Will post the link if needed later or tonight 

 

[wxeyeNH]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

The last 2 feet of water or so seems to be holding on for the moment. Hopefully that is where the water table is sitting. The guys up here keep telling me I am worrying for nothing and that well hasn't ever run out because there is "plenty of water on the hill." We will see. I am a worrier so I keep looking in there...

I bet you are okay but every well is different.   Hopefully the access of heavy rain  (for you) will setup over NNE and start replenishing ground water.   Make a note as to well water level, how much qpf you think you have had this summer and note what you get before the ground freezes.  That way you will have a guide in future dry spells.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nope.  1800 life expectancy from birth in India was 25.

China was 32 in 1850.  Will post the link if needed later or tonight 

 

I am seeing pre-1850 China and Japan at 40+ but I’m sure there are many different sources out there.

I should also clarify that in my past studies of traditional Asian medicines the lifespans referred to in historical texts probably applied more to the upper classes then peasant classes.

[Baroclinic Zone]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The precipitation lines have been drawn we await the results a week from now.

[CoastalWx]

We rain at various points all over next two weeks.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The precipitation lines have been drawn we await the results a week from now.

And there's more after my image.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

And there's more after my image.

Hmmm,  might be time to harvest certain herbal medicinal plants, that have flowers which are easily affected by powdery mildew.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's hard to imagine ...given that trough's scale of anomaly and apparent persistence as suggested by modeling ...how any region from the SE to the NE U.S. is going escape raining episodes after ... Day 4 or so... 

Thing is, that trough still is not in the near term..it's still mid range... 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

AS Stein of us thought. Winners all summer from NE PA to VT keep winning . Rest lose