September 2020 Discussion

[dendrite]

@Damage In Tolland

I went into the raw 1-min obs for BDL on that 99F day in July and they actually hit 100F in there. But with the 5-min running mean it only averaged out to 99F. Does anyone have the time the official 99F temp occurred? I assume it was 1919Z or 3:19pm EDT. The raw 100F was 1917Z.

14740KBDL BDL2020071914151915   NP  0000    0.00                      29.680  29.682  29.683   98   60          
14740KBDL BDL2020071914161916   NP  0000    0.00                      29.681  29.683  29.684   99   59          
14740KBDL BDL2020071914171917   NP  0000    0.00                      29.680  29.683  29.683  100   60          
14740KBDL BDL2020071914181918   NP  0000    0.00                      29.679  29.681  29.682   98   59          
14740KBDL BDL2020071914191919   NP  0000    0.00                      29.677  29.680  29.681   98   59          

 

[wxeyeNH]

Balmy  34.1F   plants get to live another day.   Lite the wood stove this morning.

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Only 3 temps have been colder than this at this point in the season.

27F on 9/15 twice (1975 & 1895) and a 27F on 9/16 (1964)

What’s MOS for CON tonight? 

I have to imagine the record of 28F is very likely to go down considering how the atmosphere behaved this morning and tonight is even more favorable. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

What’s MOS for CON tonight? 

I have to imagine the record of 28F is very likely to go down considering how the atmosphere behaved this morning and tonight is even more favorable. 

31°. Mon AM is 30°. Could pull a trifecta.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

31°. Mon AM is 30°. Could pull a trifecta.

That’s weird that it thinks Monday is colder. The high is still overhead Monday morning but it’s losing some of the arctic punch compared to Sunday morning. 

I guess MOS is still slightly worried about a bit of wind tonight with the high still west of us. 

[Modfan2]

Fall Brush fire threat a real concern especially with breezy conditions today and no rain until at least Friday. 100 acre fire earlier this week across from IJD

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

@Damage In Tolland

I went into the raw 1-min obs for BDL on that 99F day in July and they actually hit 100F in there. But with the 5-min running mean it only averaged out to 99F. Does anyone have the time the official 99F temp occurred? I assume it was 1919Z or 3:19pm EDT. The raw 100F was 1917Z.

14740KBDL BDL2020071914151915   NP  0000    0.00                      29.680  29.682  29.683   98   60          
14740KBDL BDL2020071914161916   NP  0000    0.00                      29.681  29.683  29.684   99   59          
14740KBDL BDL2020071914171917   NP  0000    0.00                      29.680  29.683  29.683  100   60          
14740KBDL BDL2020071914181918   NP  0000    0.00                      29.679  29.681  29.682   98   59          
14740KBDL BDL2020071914191919   NP  0000    0.00                      29.677  29.680  29.681   98   59          

 

Wow CT did it!

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s like living in the High desert out west around here these days. Similar to Utah or something.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s like living in the High desert out west around here these days. Similar to Utah or something.

I have not seen a tick in the past month.  
Dry ftw?

[rimetree]

39.2F Seems like we'll have some frost tomorrow AM

[weathafella]

Am I gonna have to turn the heat in tonight?   I suspect I might need to....then back to ac for a day or 3 late week.   Starting to think we have a big snow winter ahead.   Ideal will be that with at or slightly above normal temperatures.   Eventually the water deficit will balance.  Still plenty of time for tropical fun.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks droughty

Wonder why

[Ginx snewx]

Average days between frosts here is 140 days,looks like this year 122 will be the number if we frost this weekend as it looks.

[ORH_wxman]

47 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Am I gonna have to turn the heat in tonight?   I suspect I might need to....then back to ac for a day or 3 late week.   Starting to think we have a big snow winter ahead.   Ideal will be that with at or slightly above normal temperatures.   Eventually the water deficit will balance.  Still plenty of time for tropical fun.

Let’s go 1995...big mid Sept cold shot and then a torch in first 3-4 weeks of October until a big shift the final few days of the month changed the pattern and locked in the cold for about 10 weeks. 

[weathafella]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s go 1995...big mid Sept cold shot and then a torch in first 3-4 weeks of October until a big shift the final few days of the month changed the pattern and locked in the cold for about 10 weeks. 

Not an unreasonable prog at this point..

[kdxken]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

We called for early fall based on a bunch of signals.

We tried to tell 'em...

[powderfreak]

52/25

With these dews and the high pressure overhead, tonight should be very cold given what happened this morning.  There's no surface moisture to stop it.

[Damage In Tolland]

39 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Not an unreasonable prog at this point..

Personally , my feeling is decent December and then it ends . Like total collapse to mild and dry. I think the good December will lead to false hopes for folks 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

52/25

With these dews and the high pressure overhead, tonight should be very cold given what happened this morning.  There's no surface moisture to stop it.

Yeah the big MOS bust this morning well before the high even crests overhead is a red flag. I’m thinking a lot of frosts and freezes the next two nights we’ll into SNE. Prob some more record lows in the rad spots. 

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Personally , my feeling is decent December and then it ends . Like total collapse to mild and dry. I think the good December will lead to false hopes for folks 

Redux of last year?

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the big MOS bust this morning well before the high even crests overhead is a red flag. I’m thinking a lot of frosts and freezes the next two nights we’ll into SNE. Prob some more record lows in the rad spots. 

Yeah, I mean look at these dews right now.  This is a legit dry and cold air mass.

Anyone who can stay relatively calm tonight is going to get quite cold.  Maple Hollow should do well, ha.

[dendrite]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the big MOS bust this morning well before the high even crests overhead is a red flag. I’m thinking a lot of frosts and freezes the next two nights we’ll into SNE. Prob some more record lows in the rad spots. 

We haven’t had many mid September airmasses like this in the MOS record. When you get something anomalous you usually have to go a little more aggressive than the machine values. I think the rad pits radiated more than MOS expected. The wind numbers were in that 3-5 range for 6-9z, yet the pits went calm. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We haven’t had many mid September airmasses like this in the MOS record. When you get something anomalous you usually have to go a little more aggressive than the machine values. I think the rad pits radiated more than MOS expected. The wind numbers were in that 3-5 range for 6-9z, yet the pits went calm. 

Yeah these dews are anomalously low. Add on the dryness of the ground and it’s a very good recipe for MOS being too conservative. 

This airmass is producing the classic Typhoon Tip “cobalt blue sky” right now

 

[Chrisrotary12]

Furnace is definitely kicking on tonight. House is at 64. Have it set at 60.

[ma blizzard]

I'm putting the O/U for OWD at 29 tonight

gonna be a tough one for the gardens in metro west the next 2 nights 

[weathafella]

This will likely be the earliest I’ve had to turn on the furnace in a very long time.  Only to turn it off a few days later...

[CoastalWx]

We no furnace. 

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, I mean look at these dews right now.  This is a legit dry and cold air mass.

Anyone who can stay relatively calm tonight is going to get quite cold.  Maple Hollow should do well, ha.

The breezes basically never stop here overnight so I have resigned myself to always being 5-10 degrees warmer than the rad pits on these clear cold nights. -10F versus -20F will have to do. LOL

I have a feeling I will compete on windchill honors, however.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s go 1995...big mid Sept cold shot and then a torch in first 3-4 weeks of October until a big shift the final few days of the month changed the pattern and locked in the cold for about 10 weeks. 

My favorite winter ensued...

-although I was not a big fan of the thaw from Hades that late January early ('96) ...  holy hell was that savage pack annihilation.   I went from 35" in the level to essentially bear ground with ice puddle patches by the time the cold set back in early February...  I think the rest of the way we managed to stack up 18" a couple of times but settled those pack depths down ... Never again to see the big yard-stick milestone depth that season, but we kept getting snows late adding to the seasonal till too - couple 6"-10" blue deals in April.

Anyway, I remember October of 1995 differently then a torch the first 3 weeks tho ( by the way, the first 3-"4" weeks of October is just the whole month - lol ...) Anyway, I remember it as just the first 10-15 days being mild up at UML in the Merrimack Valley...so it may be gradation/latitude thing. I do remember it being latitude dependent when the first snow and sleety system came through around the 9th of Novie... That was the last time we saw bear ground until said thaw. But NYC was in the 60s when we were flipping between snow and sleet up there at school on the first system. Then HFD was snow and sleet on the next one, and we were all snow. It was like winter itself was backing down the coast like a BD... heh

It was like where ever you were, once the snow line got to you ... you didn't go back, 'spreading south and southwest' like glacier tendency in the air.

I remember around the 20th of October we started getting heavier frost mornings ... Yellow maple leaves were being cold pinched in calm dead fall morning cold around campus ... And the shade side of the Pawtucket water conduit, 50 feet high granite blocks that water trickles through due to hydrologic pressure ... the rivulets were freezing during those last 10 days of the month, and I remember seeing the ice still there in the shade 4pm just before sunset ...and commenting to self that it was interesting that ice was not melting ... It was steps in a process of never looking back.

Yeah...November was mid winter from the Lowell to Acton arc of Middlesex, period.  And December? Holy shit that was the coldest Dec I recall - I remember around the 10th of the month, a buddy and I were clamoring over snow piles negotiating sidewalks outside of pubs around downtown Boston, and a bank sign blinked 10 F ...  The snow was squealing under foot falls and we were like Jesus, get us the f out of this cold!   I remember thinking around Dec 21 how we'd already had a winter's worth of winter and autumn just ended.  

I've never seen a autumn relay into winter like that since... 2008 ... maybe close, with that 40" Dec but Novie was mild - I think... 

[Bostonseminole]

62.6/30 chilly night incoming

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