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September 2020 Discussion


moneypitmike
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What a strange pattern ... all guidance agreeing too - 

That full-latitude ... hugely uncharacteristically coherent planetary wave structure for early September ( D's 6/7 to 10 ) draped ( actually 'raging' is more like it) from the eastern/NE Pacific to the eastern Canadian shield, while simultaneously there is a stacking hypsometric height depths towering over 600 dm E of Cape Cod like that ?

That's ..I dunno, I've never seen that.  

For one thing, that should set up one helluva a Bahama suck fest right up the coast... Talking powerful conveyor pattern...  

Should there be any kind of TC nearing the climo traffic routing ESE of the archipelago down there, it's going to end up over Montreal in 24 hours...  

Assuming those excessive synoptic circumstantial anomalies actually set up that way -  ... But that is a weird WAR structure... it's like why isn't that settling S into the Bermuda position.. fascinating.  

I almost get the wild notion that the season is attempting to flip prematurely .. possibly because of two reasons:  The solar nadir is statistically correlated strongly to blocking; the excessive integrated tropospheric wind velocities are generating unsually early R-Wave structures.   *BUT* ...while that is happening, the HC is usually large in keeping with measure empirical data... so, the models are attempting to structure these events over top - ... hey, it's a wild notion. But it fascinating to consider. 

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The TUTT hasn’t really been a major factor in the MDR this season, really anywhere in the basin. It has been SAL (which has been well placed rather than overly strong) and a too convoluted wave train that I think has dampened MDR development. 

That said, the best environment is west and it’s not even close. Higher SST anomalies and TCHP, more mid-level moisture, less shear which is in line with a Nina/cool neutral state. It’s not an accident that Hanna, Isaias, and Laura were all rapidly intensifying on final approach. 

2020243at.jpg

So like Ginx I don’t worry about a buzzsaw making a 14 day trip across the Atlantic. The environment isn’t conducive for that right now. I watch for a piddly wave or system that barely makes it into the Caribbean or Bahamas before quickly developing and getting shunted north.

The models have struggled to sniff out explicit TC genesis, but the seeds are there. Whether we get one to bloom at a location or time to pose a threat to New England is up in the air. 

The more cold fronts with strong winds we have the less chances of above Cat 1 we have. Upwelling season

FD18DAF4-92A0-40E3-8406-A0BC17973348.png

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17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Maybe, but I would never bank on warmer SSTs north of Hatteras being the mechanism for a big hurricane up here.

I think the formula would be: explosive development in the Caribbean/Bahamas—>steady state with an inertially stable hurricane off the SE coast—>rapid movement over waters north of NC to minimize weakening.

Hard to do, but not impossible this season given the amount and depth of warmth in the western Atlantic. We need all the dominoes on the table to fall for a high end event up here. I’ll probably be down in NC before the season is over lol. 

If the ten day Asian rule works out, sooner than you think. SC NC border

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