September 2020 Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I think you are pretty much a lock for that.

I think every October I can remember at least has had a light accum at 1500ft base of the ski resort here.  Sometimes in town but 1500ft seems annual...it might just be a coating that melts by 9am but it happens.  It’s really hard to get strong CAA that time of year and not have some upslope response.

Yeah I'd have to think at minimum he will see those graupel squalls that change to snowflakes after several minutes of good intensity on some cold CAA cyclonic flow airmass that would coat things up.....but he's likely to get something more real in October there.

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I think you are pretty much a lock for that.

I think every October I can remember at least has had a light accum at 1500ft base of the ski resort here.  Sometimes in town but 1500ft seems annual...it might just be a coating that melts by 9am but it happens.  It’s really hard to get strong CAA that time of year and not have some upslope response.

From looking at the Randolph data, I think your climo is very similar to 1500ft at my office.  My daytime obs are likely going to be very similar with you.  At night once home it’ll be different, ha.

Good excuse to just stay at work, I guess. LOL

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've posted this pic before....but even down here, this was Thanksgiving 2018. It hadn't snowed for days at this point (that thin layer on top of the older layer was about 3 days old....the thicker older layer was over a week old), but it stuck around like it does in mid-winter and Thanksgiving itself was the coldest November day on record at ORH (and likely many other stationsin New England)....you just don't normally see the snow stick around like that in November. Most November snow melts within a day or two down in SNE or even most NNE lowlands....Randolph, NH at 1500 ft is obviously different.

 

Yeah that month was nuts.  Thanksgiving 2018 was a better winter holiday than half the Christmas’ this decade.  Down under 1,000ft up here it’s very rare to go full cover starting like the 10th of Nov and never relenting.

I think even the end of October was real cold... I met up with Oceanstwx for a beer and it was whatever day those SNE tornados happened near BOS... but like that next day it was snowing steadily in October even down low.  The SPC guys in town from Oklahoma for that severe conference we’re loving it.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'd have to think at minimum he will see those graupel squalls that change to snowflakes after several minutes of good intensity on some cold CAA cyclonic flow airmass that would coat things up.....but he's likely to get something more real in October there.

Yeah...heck even I see October snow more often than not.

[powderfreak]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'd have to think at minimum he will see those graupel squalls that change to snowflakes after several minutes of good intensity on some cold CAA cyclonic flow airmass that would coat things up.....but he's likely to get something more real in October there.

Yeah I’d be shocked if he doesn’t get at least one squall worth a transient inch in October.  There’s always a cold pool that brings like a 0.14” QPF to 1.0” snow/graupel mix to the hills on the NW flank of New England, even if it melts like an hour later when the sun comes back out and you lose the wet-bulb process with temps going back from 33F to 43F again.

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've posted this pic before....but even down here, this was Thanksgiving 2018. It hadn't snowed for days at this point (that thin layer on top of the older layer was about 3 days old....the thicker older layer was over a week old), but it stuck around like it does in mid-winter and Thanksgiving itself was the coldest November day on record at ORH (and likely many other stationsin New England)....you just don't normally see the snow stick around like that in November. Most November snow melts within a day or two down in SNE or even most NNE lowlands....Randolph, NH at 1500 ft is obviously different.

7.5" at Blue Hill in that one. Solid. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

7.5" at Blue Hill in that one. Solid. 

Fookin' 6" in the Tropics here. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some pretty good cold shots showing up on guidance over the next 10 days....prob 3 legit frost/freeze opportunities (more frost  rather than freeze on the first one for NNE) between now and 9/21. I don't feel like we've seen this type of continuous frost threat pattern in September in a while.

Odds are that I'll escape tomorrow's frost (I'd give it 2 out of 3) but not 10 days from now with its below zero 850s.  Median here for 1st frost is 9/19, so one next week would be close to that.  12Z GFS has no precip thru day 14 for my area.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Really hoping to see some snow in October, even if light and it melts fast. That's very rare where I'm from. It would be pretty neat.

Some on here think Oct snows will be the KOD for winter.

[Typhoon Tip]

This operational GFS run seems to try and 'back' winter in from the Maritimes ... eroding backward against the western ridge... each trough ablation carves the westerlies a little more SW... 

It's bringing an early winter over eastern Canada for starters...but for our proximity to that region of the hemisphere is sideswiping us with gradually more then just swiping across subsequent all three ...  The last hard freezes. 

But the problem I have with that is particular to the GFS. It keeps engineering these ginormous gaps in the hypsometric depths to thickness ratios.   The thickness will by physics always be less than the geo -p hgts, but... not 30 dam.  wow ...  576 dm heights with a 546 thickness cutting underneath is appearing suspiciously too anxious to cool of the lower troposphere.  I bet that normalizes some...  

That said, it's nesting error really...because the gist of early and heavy cold signaling is something that fits with recent decadal trends for autumns... ( springs, too in the lagged seasonal thing..), the former of which then gets compensated once the gradient really gets sloped later in DJF .. blah blab.  Cross the bridge..  but in the mean time, it's like the GFS sniffs it out but then oversells it at the same time.  interesting...

[snowman21]

October snow isn't exactly unheard of even in SNE. In the last 30 Octobers, PVD has seen snow 4 times, BDR 6 times, BDL 7 times, BOS 8 times, and ORH 10 times.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Fookin' 6" in the Tropics here. 

Yeah solid event. 

[dendrite]

Goofus going for record mins in the rad pits with that d10 high.

[CoastalWx]

32 at ORH? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Goofus going for record mins in the rad pits with that d10 high.

I basically live in a swamp... we’d do mid 30s here no problem with that look

[powderfreak]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

32 at ORH? 

48.3F at KTOLLA?

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

48.3F at KTOLLA?

But I think that would be the time when the caterpillar turns into a butterfly and starts using ORH. It’s close. Not sure the exact date of such transformation.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, snowman21 said:

October snow isn't exactly unheard of even in SNE. In the last 30 Octobers, PVD has seen snow 4 times, BDR 6 times, BDL 7 times, BOS 8 times, and ORH 10 times.

Nitpick but I have ORH at 11. Might be you just missed one of the ASOS blackout years (Oct 2000 and 2002 both had snow) 

1993, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2016 

[dendrite]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But I think that would be the time when the caterpillar turns into a butterfly and starts using ORH. It’s close. Not sure the exact date of such transformation.

The wooly worm is predicting a warm dry winter for the first time ever so maybe it remains a larvae all winter?

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But I think that would be the time when the caterpillar turns into a butterfly and starts using ORH. It’s close. Not sure the exact date of such transformation.

Ours and ORH lows are almost always dead nuts on. Only time I do better is on strong CAA. Distinctly recall  a great example last winter . But in nights like that one there.. 46 for both 

[alex]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

MAV is 35F for HIE so you'll be close.

All depends on the wind. It's still pretty breezy. If that stops, down we go

[powderfreak]

44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ours and ORH lows are almost always dead nuts on. Only time I do better is on strong CAA. Distinctly recall  a great example last winter . But in nights like that one there.. 46 for both 

Not being an ass but I have a hard time conceptualizing how you’d do better on strong CAA?  You are south of them and they are at least as high as you.

Was it CAA from the SW, like wrapping around an upper low?

I’d honestly think you guys are pretty similar in all set ups, regardless of the ribbing on here.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not being an ass but I have a hard time conceptualizing how you’d do better on strong CAA?  You are south of them and they are at least as high as you.

Was it CAA from the SW, like wrapping around an upper low?

I’d honestly think you guys are pretty similar in all set ups, regardless of the ribbing on here.

Yeah maybe from those WSW flows where NYC chills before BOS. We certainly know he doesn’t advect well on NE winds. 

[Typhoon Tip]

How does the Euro do that...

It's got essentially a positive height anomaly S of 50 N some 70% of the time, yet manages to keep NE specifically colder than normal -

[Damage In Tolland]

50 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not being an ass but I have a hard time conceptualizing how you’d do better on strong CAA?  You are south of them and they are at least as high as you.

Was it CAA from the SW, like wrapping around an upper low?

I’d honestly think you guys are pretty similar in all set ups, regardless of the ribbing on here.

Being farther west helps on those CAA events. I’ve noticed it many many times over the years.  Obviously they do better wx wise in severe, snow totals , and apparently now rain 

[powderfreak]

53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Being farther west helps on those CAA events. I’ve noticed it many many times over the years.  Obviously they do better wx wise in severe, snow totals , and apparently now rain 

Ahh I gotcha.  I guess I never really looked at it that close on a map, you are decently East of them.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Ahh I gotcha.  I guess I never really looked at it that close on a map, you are decently East of them.

West

[powderfreak]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

West

Was looking at the map upside down, good call.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Was looking at the map upside down, good call.

Drunk?

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Drunk?

Not yet, bout to crack open a Sip of Sunshine.  It’s not the favorite by any means but a buddy left me a couple from last weekend’s festivities...and we don’t discriminate if there are soldiers in the fridge.