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September 2020 Discussion


moneypitmike
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Major ac malfunction this week hopefully fixed in time for next week.   I did find a workaround to keep it cool at night using the unit but that’s kind of like hope and a prayer.   Should be fixed by the weekend this week ready for Torchtember.  Hopefully my last month as a full time worker!

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33 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Major ac malfunction this week hopefully fixed in time for next week.   I did find a workaround to keep it cool at night using the unit but that’s kind of like hope and a prayer.   Should be fixed by the weekend this week ready for Torchtember.  Hopefully my last month as a full time worker!

awesome 

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Euro backing off ... 

backing off of what ? 

If it's heat ...I see D6/7/ and possible 8 with some argument as being upper 80s minimum on the 00Z operational run.  

850 mb features a lower latitude Sonoran heat release taking the southern route ( Arklotex ) and then being pulled up along the cordillera of the Apps and wafting to SNE by D7 ...

D8 ( I suspect ) the model is too aggressive leading that day with the trough magnificence it presses through southern/SE Canada which if true, may delay that cfront.  I base this latter idea on known model bias/tendency to take any trough 'dent' it sees over Manitoba and do that over Ontario... It looks like it's getting too much curvature in the flow going from D4-6 in there N of the Lakes region... But if not, that's two days of 850 mb temperatures over 18C ...  

I dunno...maybe you guys are talking about the (06z run + WSI extra-double top secret ensemble math + giggidy lust for winter to kick in)/3 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Euro backing off ... 

backing off of what ? 

If it's heat ...I see D6/7/ and possible 8 with some argument as being upper 80s minimum on the 00Z operational run.  

850 mb features a lower latitude Sonoran heat release taking the southern route ( Arklotex ) and then being pulled up along the cordillera of the Apps and wafting to SNE by D7 ...

D8 ( I suspect ) the model is too aggressive leading that day with the trough magnificence it presses through southern/SE Canada which if true, may delay that cfront.  I base this latter idea on known model bias/tendency to take any trough 'dent' it sees over Manitoba and do that over Ontario... It looks like it's getting too much curvature in the flow going from D4-6 in there N of the Lakes region... But if not, that's two days of 850 mb temperatures over 18C ...  

I dunno...maybe you guys are talking about the (06z run + WSI extra-double top secret ensemble math + giggidy lust for winter to kick in)/3 

Giggidy lust and all,You try too hard. No one said it wasn't going to get warm for a couple of days but those calling for an absolute furnace are hyping something that is not what modeling is showing 

 

download (47).png

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Giggidy lust and all,You try too hard. No one said it wasn't going to get warm for a couple of days but those calling for an absolute furnace are hyping something that is not what modeling is showing 

 

download (47).png

Try to hard? 

what... I asked a question - 'backing off what' ? 

also - that graphic is shirking comparing the model's own synoptics... too cold, period. One of those two gets corrected - either the synoptics step down...or that product warms getting closer. One or the other....

I've often noticed the Euro's graphical products consummately run cool bias relative to synoptics for mid range +  ...although the 2-meter temp one seems okay - ..of course, Manfield CT is probably going to be colder than everywhere else lol

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27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Try to hard? 

what... I asked a question - 'backing off what' ? 

also - that graphic is shirking comparing the model's own synoptics... too cold, period. One of those two gets corrected - either the synoptics step down...or that product warms getting closer. One or the other....

I've often noticed the Euro's graphical products consummately run cool bias relative to synoptics for mid range +  ...although the 2-meter temp one seems okay - ..of course, Manfield CT is probably going to be colder than everywhere else lol

Seem to remember the one who laughs at this post had 90s for today, not you but Hype boy

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