Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 43 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha, yeah I’m an idiot for leaving that out. Temps seem like they’d be pretty important. Not sure why I was assuming a 32-34F type air mass. I figure anytime you get into the 20s it’s gonna stick fine. I just saw some 16 to 18 degree temps in Wyoming, thats nutz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Warm ground only matters when the precip is really light...... or after the snow stops falling, it can start melting from underneath. I've seen that when we get snow in November and it's only like 25F out the next day but there's still some melting from the bottom with upper layer soil temps still in the 40s. The surface of the ground itself will usually come in line with the ambient air temp pretty quickly, so immediate accumulations aren't too hard. Oh god - here we go again... The problem with this dip shit topic is that people can't think 'integral mathematically' about these subject matters - it's either one or the other. It's not: ground too warm = snow doesn't stick It's: ground too warm to allow ALL the snow to stick... . jesus - ...sometimes I fantasize Brian having a mandatory tutorial - like a driver's test for a license... and everyong that joins has to pass. That is question... oh, 6 on the roster of typical reasons to one may want to suck on a f'n exhaust pipe stupid in here. If anyone says the ground it too warm without demonstrating a clear and coherent qualitative assessment along an environmentally aware perspective, demonstrating an actual facility in nature ... or even hot to balance a g-damn checkbook, you can't join the forum until you learn - Of course, that would mean - retroactively - that I'd be kicked to the curve so - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: Broomfield, CO was 90F at the 5pm obs yesterday.... 5:47am this morning they are at 2.5sm -SN. That is wild. Under 13 hours from 90F to snowing. https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBJC.html 3 day history though there is a gap overnight last night.\ Meanwhile up here, the pool got drained and taken down this weekend. I planted 5 plum trees last weekend which has promptly put an end to the rainy stretch we were in. Lots of watering about to have to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 On 9/6/2020 at 10:29 PM, alex said: I've had a white Thanksgiving every year since moving here (can't even remember for sure how many that is but it would be 3 or 4 past years) If it’s like here, it would be the past four years with a white Thanksgiving. In 2015-2016 I see there was some snow on the ground the day before, but nothing on Thanksgiving day itself, so it looks like it just missed. Of these past four, I see that 2017-2018 was the closest to missing – we picked up 6.1” on Nov 20th that year from a Lake Superior/Lake Huron coupled lake-effect band assisted by a weak embedded shortwave along the international border. Some of that snow was still around on Thanksgiving on the 23rd, and it actually persisted all the way out to the 25th before it was reinforced by additional storms at the end of the month. Anyway, this recent four-year stretch of white Thanksgivings is the longest I see in my records, so it’s been a good run on that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Warm ground theory thoroughly debunked. Take note TV METs. Whineminster disagrees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 33 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Whineminster disagrees. Yeah......I do. It's not that it can't accumulate, it just accumulates less and melts a lot quicker. With warm ground, you don't get the January WINDEX events dropping a dusting and it makes the road slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 13 hours ago, snowman21 said: No, it's true. Look at some northeastern cities' October mean temperatures by decade. October means are up an average of 3 degrees since the '80s. These things likely run in cycles though. For example, a similar pattern existed in the BDL data from the 1910s through 1930s. BDL BOS BTV CAR NYC ORH ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- 2010s 54.5 2010s 56.6 2010s 51.4 2010s 45.7 2010s 59.2 2010s 51.8 2000s 52.3 2000s 54.3 2000s 48.5 2000s 43.8 2000s 57.0 2000s 50.4 1990s 52.5 1990s 54.7 1990s 48.5 1990s 43.1 1990s 57.7 1990s 50.1 1980s 51.2 1980s 53.6 1980s 47.5 1980s 42.8 1980s 57.0 1980s 49.5 1970s 52.1 1970s 54.2 1970s 47.4 1970s 42.7 1970s 56.9 1970s 49.4 The 2010s are pretty unique for their warmth, though amazingly, the 1950s (not listed above) were the next warmest for ORH (at the current site)....they had an average October temp of 51.1F....the 1960s (also not listed above) were not far behind putting up an average of 50.9F...half a degree warmer than the 2000s. The 1940s may have challenged 2010s in some spots. ORH has an average temp of 52.6F for October in the 1940s....though 8 of those years were at the old site, which makes the direct comparison a little harder. The older site averaged 51.7F vs 51.15F at the airport site during the 15 overlap Octobers between 1948 and 1962. So even if you subtracted 5 or 6 tenths from those 8 years, you'd still have a warmer average than the 2010s. But we'll never know for sure. Logan airport did not match their 2010s warmth in the 1940s, however....but it was 2nd warmest at 55.6F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 The meat at Denver is not supposed to get in until late today and tonight though. It's just very light precip right now. They should be good for a few inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, White Rain said: FWIW, snow doesnt appear to be sticking well in Denver and Boulder compared with forecasts. It looks like it will be a bit of a bust there for accumulations. Not sure if this is more of a function of temperatures not being cold enough at ~33F vs the warm ground argument though. https://boulderflatironcam.com/superiorcam Doesn't look like it's coming down very hard....high visibility. It appears the best lift is this evening though, so we'll see if they pick it up later today/tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 22 minutes ago, White Rain said: FWIW, snow doesnt appear to be sticking well in Denver and Boulder compared with forecasts. It looks like it will be a bit of a bust there for accumulations. Not sure if this is more of a function of temperatures not being cold enough at ~33F vs the warm ground argument though. https://boulderflatironcam.com/superiorcam there's not argument ... only reality and morons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 4 hours ago, Whineminster said: That'll get knocked down near the end of the week and weekend. Looks chilly. Knocked down, but it's gonna rise the next few days. Already running about 7-8F above today. Normal for the week is about 77/53 here. Highs will be in the mid 80s the next 3 days and lows will be in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Torch!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Torch!!!! Relative to normal, today would qualify as one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Relative to normal, today would qualify as one. Started yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 85F at KFIt near work. 80F at home Warm but meh Prob +6 or +7 vs climo at home (using ORH as a reference for average). 61F was my low... 81 will prob be my high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Started yesterday Was above normal yesterday, but nothing like today and the next few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 27 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Relative to normal, today would qualify as one. almost think so anyway.. 88/67 here and windows open and not a lot of breeze out there to offer ventilation - .. meanwhile it 'sounds' hot out there with those cutting insects ... what? are those cicadas. Almost still with HI of 94. Deep summer. glad the back's broke... but, I guess I'd have to nod that way when theren's snow somewhere on the map. Or perhaps it's just another absurdity you get amid the cuttingly incisive base-line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: almost think so anyway.. 88/67 here and windows open and not a lot of breeze out there to offer ventilation - .. meanwhile it 'sounds' hot out there with those cutting insects ... what? are those cicadas. Almost still with HI of 94. Deep summer. glad the back's broke... but, I guess I'd have to nod that way when theren's snow somewhere on the map. Or perhaps it's just another absurdity you get amid the cuttingly incisive base-line Definitely over the Summer doldrums. At least we're seeing CFs pushing through periodically now to mix things up with some rain thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 80/62 here... average high of 73F. Definitely warm. Month has started out below normal but the next couple days might briefly flip it positive. Looks below normal after this too... maybe we can get a below normal September? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: 80/62 here... average high of 73F. Definitely warm. Month has started out below normal but the next couple days might --> "briefly" <-- flip it positive. Hahaha lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hahaha lol Ha, don’t think so? I bet up here the month is back below normal by next Monday. Sitting at -0.5 coming into today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Torch! Up to 87-88F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 78/61 in Randolph. Hopefully last two warmish days of the year coming now. Still nowhere near as horrid as the upper 80s and humid days from July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Car thermo read 91F on the baked tarmac of Rte 2 near the KFIT airport. 80.1F here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Max 80.8° A little torchy, but not unbearable like some September days past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 1 hour ago, White Rain said: Even NWS is getting into the warm ground debate No ...they are not - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Some sun would be nice if it’s going to be warm. This reminds me of a winter torch when if it’s going to be +10 at least make it sunny.... two days of mid-level dirt so it’s warm and dark all day, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Geezuz buoy 46050 off of the Oregon Coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Geezuz buoy 46050 off of the Oregon Coast Surface of Venus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Geezuz buoy 46050 off of the Oregon Coast KEUG 082054Z 35017KT 3/4SM FU VV012 23/M03 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP124 ASH FROM FIRES FALLING T02331033 56029 RVRNO= KEUG 082154Z 36017KT 1/2SM FU VV010 24/M04 A2987 RMK AO2 PK WND 36026/2134 SLP114 T02391039 RVRNO= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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