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September 2020 Discussion


moneypitmike
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Last year we had a similar set-up with an unseasonably warm/humid air mass ahead of a slow moving front with a cold trough digging in behind it.  Halloween night had several inches fall in a short amount of time as a wave developed on the front.  There was localized flooding similar to Irene in the northern Greens from a similar set-up to what we have coming.  I was out of town and came back to  ~4" in the stratus.

This upcoming event will certainly rain hard for someone and possibly a sizeable axis... get that moisture rich humid air pumping northward and a forcing mechanism.  This looks like it could even be wetter, as last year's was a narrow 3-4.5" zone with a more widespread 0.5-2.0" and models are currently more impressive than that.  Someone is going to get smoked in a SW to NE axis that is modeled much further east currently than last year's.

Last year though had some very impressive kinematics...severe warnings and high wind products with the FROPA, iirc.

612826138_Halloween2019.thumb.jpg.c1568cbba4e5a207881743e92ea2a309.jpg

 

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I'm actually curious to see how much the river here will rise compared to a similar amount of rain in a typical season. In the spring, an inch of rain makes it rise as much as 2 feet and sometimes more. Now the ground is very dry and wetlands are low, so I imagine it will take a lot more rain to result in a similar increase. 

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11 minutes ago, alex said:

I'm actually curious to see how much the river here will rise compared to a similar amount of rain in a typical season. In the spring, an inch of rain makes it rise as much as 2 feet and sometimes more. Now the ground is very dry and wetlands are low, so I imagine it will take a lot more rain to result in a similar increase. 

I find the backyard West Branch responds more to rainfall rates, than overall total.  Obviously, antecedent conditions are a big factor... but rainfall rates are what can really make it go nuts.  There isn't nearly as much response as there is getting 3-4" in like 12 hours or less.  No matter how dry it's been, if a lot of rain falls in a short period of time, the mountain runoff that feeds these waterways is substantial. 

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57 minutes ago, alex said:

I'm actually curious to see how much the river here will rise compared to a similar amount of rain in a typical season. In the spring, an inch of rain makes it rise as much as 2 feet and sometimes more. Now the ground is very dry and wetlands are low, so I imagine it will take a lot more rain to result in a similar increase. 

dry hard ground will initially cause more runoff into streams than normal 

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48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully with a low near 70 and dews the same, those who are uninstalled can safely remove their sheets stuck inside bum crack.  

heh...slept fine here and only had the window open a crack. But I tend to be cold most of the time anyway. Heck I was out with the birds yesterday evening in a hoodie. I’m turning into weatherwiz. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

heh...slept fine here and only had the window open a crack. But I tend to be cold most of the time anyway. Heck I was out with the birds yesterday evening in a hoodie. I’m turning into weatherwiz. 

Now that is concerning. You should build a sauna where you are. Great spot for it. Or take a ride up the road where I was, in Sanborton. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Now that is concerning. You should build a sauna where you are. Great spot for it. Or take a ride up the road where I was, in Sanborton. 

It’s ever since I went low/no carb a few years ago. It’s like my body reverted back to ancient Mesopotamian DNA. 

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