September 2020 Discussion

[dryslot]

Color starting to show more here, Nothing but COC out there today and looks to be the next 7 days+, 61/46.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

No well issues around here to date.... most are drilled.:: but I’d imagine the worst is behind us.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, HimoorWx said:

Still very active here, but some seem really small even by hummingbird standards.

Almost zero activity where I live... of course I am not home all day to watch, but they have been drinking almost nothing.  And have only seen one in the last week or so... 

[dryslot]

My hummingbirds are gone and have been for a while...........

[powderfreak]

I was reading about some place in the Wasatch of Utah that apparently before this cold trough had their last precipitation fall in late June as snow... and that deep upper trough that just swung through the intermountain west brought the first precipitation since then and it also fell as snow.

If I read it right, it sounded like they went from snow event to snow event with no rain between.  That's wild if true.  I'd sign up for that...  snow into June and then just literally nothing but sunshine and high pressure until it starts snowing again in the fall.

[dendrite]

Glad we don't live here.

KSTS 111453Z 00000KT M1/4SM FU HZ VV001 10/10 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP175 T01000100 53010=

[dryslot]

Don't really see much in the way of any appreciable precip in the forecast the next 7+ days up here either.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Don't really see much in the way of any appreciable precip in the forecast the next 7+ days up here either.

 

HP after HP after HP.  

[alex]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

@alex's growing season is done after tonight...

Yep. Been bringing plants in, it's time!

[Lava Rock]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Don't really see much in the way of any appreciable precip in the forecast the next 7+ days up here either.

 

jayhawk said i'd get showers on sunday. I did ask him if he 'promised', but got no reply

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

jayhawk said i'd get showers on sunday. I did ask him if he 'promised', but got no reply

You have a 40% chance at some drops on your deck sunday night.

[Lava Rock]

Just now, dryslot said:

You have a 40% chance at some drops on your deck sunday night.

"drops" is the key word. Just got back from harbor freight with some new hoses. Oh boy!!!!

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, alex said:

Yep. Been bringing plants in, it's time!

MAV is 35F for HIE so you'll be close.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

"drops" is the key word. Just got back from harbor freight with some new hoses. Oh boy!!!!

You're going to need them, Thankfully, My garden was irrigated and its still producing.

[ORH_wxman]

Some pretty good cold shots showing up on guidance over the next 10 days....prob 3 legit frost/freeze opportunities (more frost  rather than freeze on the first one for NNE) between now and 9/21. I don't feel like we've seen this type of continuous frost threat pattern in September in a while.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some pretty good cold shots showing up on guidance over the next 10 days....prob 3 legit frost/freeze opportunities (more frost  rather than freeze on the first one for NNE) between now and 9/21. I don't feel like we've seen this type of continuous frost threat pattern in September in a while.

All signals from my experience were for early frost, dry, multiple cold front passages, garden matured very early this year as well.

[CoastalWx]

37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I was reading about some place in the Wasatch of Utah that apparently before this cold trough had their last precipitation fall in late June as snow... and that deep upper trough that just swung through the intermountain west brought the first precipitation since then and it also fell as snow.

If I read it right, it sounded like they went from snow event to snow event with no rain between.  That's wild if true.  I'd sign up for that...  snow into June and then just literally nothing but sunshine and high pressure until it starts snowing again in the fall.

The SW Monsoon never really got going this year. In fact, all across the globe some funky things happened. WPAC Monsoon has not kicked in either and has led to an extremely quiet tropical season there. 

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

All signals from my experience were for early frost, dry, multiple cold front passages, garden matured very early this year as well.

I've been giving away Cherry Tomatoes by the hundreds, I can't eat enough of them ourselves plus i have to use a stepladder to get them..........lol

[Bostonseminole]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some pretty good cold shots showing up on guidance over the next 10 days....prob 3 legit frost/freeze opportunities (more frost  rather than freeze on the first one for NNE) between now and 9/21. I don't feel like we've seen this type of continuous frost threat pattern in September in a while.

yeah, GFS with some shots, specially around 9/20-9/21

[MaineJayhawk]

45 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

jayhawk said i'd get showers on sunday. I did ask him if he 'promised', but got no reply

I took that as a rhetorical question

[Lava Rock]

I took that as a rhetorical question

Lol, I was looking for some assurance. Once my seedlings sprout then I have to water more deeply. Thats not happening, so grass will probably die. One failed attempt after another. More wasted time and money. Sick of it

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

yeah, GFS with some shots, specially around 9/20-9/21

I was looking at ORH the other day and they haven't broken a record low in September since 1990 (though 10/1/92 did get one....and BOS actually set a record low in September 2013)....30 years. Only December has gone longer (31 years)....I was kind of surprised about December but somehow we didn't break a record low there recently...I was sure we did during 2017, but all those 1933 and 1917 lows blocked them. We saw a ton of record low maxes in December that year, but no actual record low minimums.

Compare that to November where we've broken 5 record lows just since 2018. November had been one of the fastest warming months on ORH data through the late 2000s, but now they have been beaten back down so hard with 6 of the last 8 being below normal including two of the top 10 coldest Novembers on record....to the point where November is now just warming at 0.1F per decade. Always weird to see stuff like that.

October did the opposite....it had barely been warming on the data through like 2010, but then we just got obliterated with October torches in the 2010s so now it is warming much faster now on the means.

[MaineJayhawk]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

7 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

I took that as a rhetorical question

Lol, I was looking for some assurance. Once my seedlings sprout then I have to water more deeply. Thats not happening, so grass will probably die. One failed attempt after another. More wasted time and money. Sick of it

Yeah, the Sunday PM stuff looks light and spotty if anything falls at all.  You could prob go out on your boat

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was looking at ORH the other day and they haven't broken a record low in September since 1990 (though 10/1/92 did get one....and BOS actually set a record low in September 2013)....30 years. Only December has gone longer (31 years)....I was kind of surprised about December but somehow we didn't break a record low there recently...I was sure we did during 2017, but all those 1933 and 1917 lows blocked them. We saw a ton of record low maxes in December that year, but no actual record low minimums.

Compare that to November where we've broken 5 record lows just since 2018. November had been one of the fastest warming months on ORH data through the late 2000s, but now they have been beaten back down so hard with 6 of the last 8 being below normal including two of the top 10 coldest Novembers on record....to the point where November is now just warming at 0.1F per decade. Always weird to see stuff like that.

October did the opposite....it had barely been warming on the data through like 2010, but then we just got obliterated with October torches in the 2010s so now it is warming much faster now on the means.

I actually misspoke here....October did in fact have the opposite trend, but they were actually on a negative decadal trend before the 2010s....the 2010s simply brought it back to a flat trend.

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was looking at ORH the other day and they haven't broken a record low in September since 1990 (though 10/1/92 did get one....and BOS actually set a record low in September 2013)....30 years. Only December has gone longer (31 years)....I was kind of surprised about December but somehow we didn't break a record low there recently...I was sure we did during 2017, but all those 1933 and 1917 lows blocked them. We saw a ton of record low maxes in December that year, but no actual record low minimums.

Compare that to November where we've broken 5 record lows just since 2018. November had been one of the fastest warming months on ORH data through the late 2000s, but now they have been beaten back down so hard with 6 of the last 8 being below normal including two of the top 10 coldest Novembers on record....to the point where November is now just warming at 0.1F per decade. Always weird to see stuff like that.

October did the opposite....it had barely been warming on the data through like 2010, but then we just got obliterated with October torches in the 2010s so now it is warming much faster now on the means.

Anecdotally that sounds correct here.

 September has seemed like a summer month with warmth every year, and November has been like a winter month with even sub-zero cold shots up here within the past few years.  It seems like it goes from mild 80s in September to mid-winter cold with highs in the teens at some point in November.  It’s been a very favorable snowmaking month lately.  Add in 2018 was the snowiest November on record up here with the Mansfield stake hitting 40” of snow depth for the first time in Nov in its period of record back to 1954.

 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Anecdotally that sounds correct here.

 September has seemed like a summer month with warmth every year, and November has been like a winter month with even sub-zero cold shots up here within the past few years.  It seems like it goes from mild 80s in September to mid-winter cold with highs in the teens in November.  It’s been a very favorable snowmaking month lately.  Add in 2018 was the snowiest November on record up here with the Mansfield drake hitting 40” for the first time in its period of record back to 1954.

 

Yeah, seems like 11/2018 was pretty legendary.

49.7" at Randolph, with max depth of 28"

Hope I get to see that again in November.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, seems like 11/2018 was pretty legendary.

49.7" at Randolph, with max depth of 28"

Hope I get to see that again in November.

Yeah we got a bunch of dense high QPF snows, and it wasn’t just like 2,500ft and higher like some November’s.  Like the Randolph data, there was a very significant snowpack down to 1,500ft... people were skiing the glades to the parking lots in November.  I’ve never seen that before, like instant mid-winter.

The snow year gets very, very long when that happens... I think even at 750ft my continuous snow cover started like Nov 10th or 12th time frame that year.  When the grass disappears that early in the valleys and you don’t see it again until Spring... it’s a long winter.

[PhineasC]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah we got a bunch of dense high QPF snows, and it wasn’t just like 2,500ft and higher like some November’s.  Like the Randolph data, there was a very significant snowpack down to 1,500ft... people were skiing the glades to the parking lots in November.  I’ve never seen that before, like instant mid-winter.

Really hoping to see some snow in October, even if light and it melts fast. That's very rare where I'm from. It would be pretty neat.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, seems like 11/2018 was pretty legendary.

49.7" at Randolph, with max depth of 28"

Hope I get to see that again in November.

I've posted this pic before....but even down here, this was Thanksgiving 2018. It hadn't snowed for days at this point (that thin layer on top of the older layer was about 3 days old....the thicker older layer was over a week old), but it stuck around like it does in mid-winter and Thanksgiving itself was the coldest November day on record at ORH (and likely many other stationsin New England)....you just don't normally see the snow stick around like that in November. Most November snow melts within a day or two down in SNE or even most NNE lowlands....Randolph, NH at 1500 ft is obviously different.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Really hoping to see some snow in October, even if light and it melts fast. That's very rare where I'm from. It would be pretty neat.

I think you are pretty much a lock for that.

I think every October I can remember at least has had a light accum at 1500ft base of the ski resort here.  Sometimes in town but 1500ft seems annual...it might just be a coating that melts by 9am but it happens.  It’s really hard to get strong CAA that time of year and not have some upslope response.

From looking at the Randolph data, I think your climo is very similar to 1500ft at my office.  My daytime obs are likely going to be very similar with you.  At night once home it’ll be different, ha.