September 2020 Discussion

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dews start falling off a cliff around lunchtime nw to se.

We wait

71/70

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sorry but we’ll take the official govt agency over some local old timer in a rocker giving Quabbin updates and a log splitter using mushrooms .t’s as bad as we’ve ever seen it . It’s right here . No arguments 

“It’s as bad as we’ve ever seen it.”

Not being a dick but what is?  I don’t think you’ve mentioned anything but a brown lawn and that graphic.  What’s the impact of that graphic that gets shared here every day?  

[powderfreak]

Got down to 54F at 2am last night but then the wind kicked up and back up to 66F at sunrise.  Funny watching the temp move with every puff of wind.

[PowderBeard]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

.t’s as bad as we’ve ever seen it . It’s right here . No arguments 

 

 

 

LOL

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

“It’s as bad as we’ve ever seen it.”

Not being a dick but what is?  I don’t think you’ve mentioned anything but a brown lawn and that graphic.  What’s the impact of that graphic that gets shared here every day?  

My 4yr old talks about his toys being the biggest, the baddest, the best toys in the whole wild world...kinda the same thing with Ditty’s weather. 

[PowderBeard]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 I don’t think you’ve mentioned anything but a brown lawn and that graphic.  

He put down excess fertilizer during a torch week to burn it up for pics. Some next level trolling commitment right there.

[tamarack]

27 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

 

 

 

LOL

 

Is that map available for, say, Sept. 15, 1966?

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Is that map available for, say, Sept. 15, 1966?

Your best bet is to look up Palmer Index. All hydrologists use the Palmer Index for long term drought.  We are currently in a moderate long term drought, which means ground water, lakes, reservoirs are below normal. Long term drought takes into account overall precipitation,  river flows,ground water. It doesn't concentrate on daily precipitation 

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Is that map available for, say, Sept. 15, 1966?

Not the exact same thing but it's a good proxy using the PDSI.

 

 

 

 

 

It actually looks like the previous year September 1965 was worse

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not the exact same thing but it's a good proxy using the PDSI.

 

 

 

 

 

It actually looks like the previous year September 1965 was worse

 

 

Yes by the end of Nov 1966 it was over

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That’s a drought.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Your best bet is to look up Palmer Index. All hydrologists use the Palmer Index for long term drought.  We are currently in a moderate long term drought, which means ground water, lakes, reservoirs are below normal. Long term drought takes into account overall precipitation,  river flows,ground water. It doesn't concentrate on daily precipitation 

Wow, worst drought ever in SNE? It's as bad as it's ever been.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s a drought.

Short term droughts affect vegetation and shallow dug wells. Long term droughts affect the above as well as ground water, reservoirs, river flows.

[Modfan2]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Short term droughts affect vegetation and shallow dug wells. Long term droughts affect the above as well as ground water, reservoirs, river flows.

Fall Brush Fire Season? 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Fall Brush Fire Season? 

Been wet this week. We will see in October. 

Water Supply Status as of August 31, 2020

Current Status:
Our reservoirs are at 75% of capacity.

Normal Status for Time of Year:
Reservoirs are usually at 74% of capacity.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Been wet this week. We will see in October. 

Water Supply Status as of August 31, 2020

Current Status:
Our reservoirs are at 75% of capacity.

Normal Status for Time of Year:
Reservoirs are usually at 74% of capacity.

Lol.  So essentially lawn browning is the main impact this summer and that is primarily for aesthetic purposes.

What is the purpose of a lawn?

A lawn is an area of soil-covered land planted with grasses and other durable plants such as clover which are maintained at a short height with a lawnmower and used for aesthetic and recreational purposes.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Lol.  Good stuff.  So essentially lawn browning is the main impact this summer and that is primarily for aesthetic purposes.

What is the purpose of a lawn?

A lawn is an area of soil-covered land planted with grasses and other durable plants such as clover which are maintained at a short height with a lawnmower and used for aesthetic and recreational purposes.

Rivers are pretty low. My lawn is mostly green again and haven't had to water the garden this week. Definitely in a moderate long term drought.  We need all the rain we can get but September usually is not a wet month. Looks like long term is a wet pattern though 

[tamarack]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not the exact same thing but it's a good proxy using the PDSI.

 

 

 

 

 

It actually looks like the previous year September 1965 was worse

 

 

9/65 worse for New England, slightly less bad in the MA as the dry wx hung on a bit longer there.  And if a long-term drought can be said to end on one day, NYC's 5.54" on 9/21/66 was that day, though no one knew it at the time.  But from there on out, precip was more normal, with some significantly AN years coming soon.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

9/65 worse for New England, slightly less bad in the MA as the dry wx hung on a bit longer there.  And if a long-term drought can be said to end on one day, NYC's 5.54" on 9/21/66 was that day, though no one knew it at the time.  But from there on out, precip was more normal, with some significantly AN years coming soon.

Yeah that’s close to where we all are now . Another dry mild winter and we go into next year in deep trouble 

[Great Snow 1717]

Wells running dry in NH are becoming a growing problem for homeowners. 

https://www.eagletribune.com/news/new_hampshire/drought-causes-wells-to-dry-up-across-nh/article_bcc4151f-c0c6-5b65-a8a0-1ae63eb85565.html

[Baroclinic Zone]

77/70

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah that’s close to where we all are now . Another dry mild winter and we go into next year in deep trouble 

Maybe thee.

Not we.

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, tamarack said:

9/65 worse for New England, slightly less bad in the MA as the dry wx hung on a bit longer there.  And if a long-term drought can be said to end on one day, NYC's 5.54" on 9/21/66 was that day, though no one knew it at the time.  But from there on out, precip was more normal, with some significantly AN years coming soon.

according to the Monthly weather review the northeast jumped 2 categories up by the end if Sept 66. I do distinctly remember the summer of 66 as a 9 year old. We actually had dust devils on our baseball field which basically was a gravel yard

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, PowderBeard said:

Yea, those mushrooms are pretty amazing. 

Wrong ones, But yeah, Those too.

[dryslot]

71/61

[wx2fish]

I did a quick look at a few of the closest SE NH coop sites to me, including MHT. They range from 4" to 7.5" above 2016 year to date. Its certaintly been dry, but atleast locally 2016 was drier

[tamarack]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah that’s close to where we all are now . Another dry mild winter and we go into next year in deep trouble 

Really?  1965 set records for lowest precip year in all 3 SNE states, also DE, NJ, PA.  And it wasn't just 1965.  Using NYC as proxy, because of their 151-year POR:

1960s average:  43.20"
1962:   37.20"  20th lowest
1963:   34.28"   5th lowest, saved from setting new #1 by a 4" RA Nov. 7-8
1964:   33.00"   New record (lasted one year)
1965:   26.09"   'nuf said
'65 Jan-Aug:  19.06"
'66 Jan-Aug:  19.80"  (And met summer was 4.8° warmer than '65.)

Then Sept. 1966 brought 8.7" and things moved back to normal.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I feel like this is something we go through every summer...especially the past few years and especially if the spring was a bit on the drier side. During the summer months the majority of our precipitation comes from convection which obviously is going to be more spotty in nature. Perhaps there will be some occurrences where we get widespread convection and precipitation. Obviously this summer that didn't happen so naturally things are going to be drier. 

Are we in a drought...sure short-term we are but the long-term picture I don't think it indicates that...maybe locally some areas are worse off. But this is far from serious drought. Now if we went through the fall and things remained dry...well perhaps the pictures changes a bit but just looking at the pattern moving forward looks like we'll see plenty of rain chances upcoming. 

Probably would help if the environmental science ambit would f'n define the difference between drought and transient drought-like conditions ...with actual terminology. 

Like, call the latter something ...anything, other than drought and reserve the word drought for well depletion ... reservoir fish flopping and a shit flies. 

This level 1 drought ...level 4 drought shit ...?  Obviously proves too complex for this general public to handle graphic "implication" and consumption ... they should save that for their internal offices and keep just have two categories for the proletariat/provincials called either brown-lawn, or actual drought. We've had 99 brown lawns and 1 drought in the past 500 years...kidding. 

The other option is never respond or engage in any discussion - perhaps discipline and choice - that begins with those US D M product suite graphics ..or has the words "dry" or 'drought' period...  Obviously though, everyone in here is in here because they want to either be entertained by dramatic weather ...but for some, as pathetic as it sounds ( and is true ) they are too awkward to maintain a social life that is truly interactive... 

Now that we are in a forced distancing Pandemic thing, which is really a form of instinct/group psychology at populations scales stopping over-abundance therein, by unconsciously manifesting as a practicum (get it?  can't f* and reproduce from 6 feet away - well, I can ...but most dudes can't)... haha... so for some it's like they "have to" read nonsense... or may feel that way.

 

[tamarack]

40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

according to the Monthly weather review the northeast jumped 2 categories up by the end if Sept 66. I do distinctly remember the summer of 66 as a 9 year old. We actually had dust devils on our baseball field which basically was a gravel yard

Had a dust devil that summer of 1966 where I worked.  It was a hot and dry day with little wind before a strong north wind arrived mid afternoon.  The spin-up started at the south end of the lodge - we heard some things crashing - then moved north behind the lodge before cutting west across the beach to the lake.  On its way it tossed thick chaise lounge cushions into treetops and flipped over one of the heavy wooden lounges several times and turned the 14' aluminum boat upside down.  It picked up one of those thigh-high ashtrays, lifted it 40-50' and carried it across the lake (only about 1,000') before dissipating in the woods on the far side.  Watching that black ashtray going round and round amid a sand cloud was amazing. 

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably would help if the environmental science ambit would f'n define the difference between drought and transient drought-like conditions ...with actual terminology. 

Like, call the latter something ...anything, other than drought and reserve the word drought for well depletion ... reservoir fish flopping and a shit flies. 

This level 1 drought ...level 4 drought shit ...?  Obviously proves too complex for this general public to handle graphic "implication" and consumption ... they should save that for their internal offices and keep just have two categories for the proletariat/provincials called brown-lawn. 

The other option is never respond or engage in any discussion - perhaps discipline and choice - that begins with those US D M product suite graphics ..or has the words "dry" or 'drought' period...  Obviously though, everyone in here is in here because they want to either be entertained by dramatic weather ...but for some, as pathetic as it sounds ( and is true ) they are too awkward to maintain a social life that is truly interactive... 

Now that we are in a forced distancing Pandemic thing, which is really a form of instinct/group psychology at populations scales stopping over-abundance therein, by unconsciously manifesting as a practicum (get it?  can't f* and reproduce from 6 feet away - well, I can ...but most dudes can't)... haha... for some its like they "have to" read nonsense... or may feel that way.

 

This is a fantastic point. Strongly agree with your thoughts. Especially with the "levels"...not only does the general public not understand it but I'm sure those with a meteorological/agricultural background don't either. Same thing with the SPC risk outlooks...general public certainly doesn't understand them (which I guess they aren't meant for the general public) and some meteorologists/forecasters don't understand them and they incorrectly rely the information to the public.