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SVR potential late Wed-Thu August 26-27 NYC metro


wdrag
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The local storm report from yesterday’s severe thunderstorms:

000
NWUS51 KOKX 280250
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1050 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WATERBURY               41.56N  73.04W
08/27/2020                   NEW HAVEN          CT   SOCIAL MEDIA    

            LARGE TREE UPROOTED ON LOUNSBURY STREET 

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NAUGATUCK               41.49N  73.05W
08/27/2020                   NEW HAVEN          CT   SOCIAL MEDIA    

            TREE AND BRANCHES DOWN ON A HOUSE 

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTHBURY               41.49N  73.22W
08/27/2020                   NEW HAVEN          CT   SOCIAL MEDIA    

            VIDEO OF A TREE DOWN BLOCKING 1 LANE ON I-84 

0404 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONTOWESE               41.35N  72.86W
08/27/2020                   NEW HAVEN          CT   SOCIAL MEDIA    

            NUMEROUS TREES AND BRANCHES SNAPPED AND DOWNED IN 
            MONTOWESE SECTION OF NORTH HAVEN WITH TIME ESTIMATED BY 
            RADAR 

0406 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH HAVEN             41.38N  72.86W
08/27/2020                   NEW HAVEN          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREES UPROOTED NEAR I91 AND I40 

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH HAVEN             41.38N  72.86W
08/27/2020                   NEW HAVEN          CT   SOCIAL MEDIA    

            VIDEO OF MULTIPLE LARGE TREES DOWN. 

0410 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEW HAVEN               41.31N  72.92W
08/27/2020  M69 MPH          NEW HAVEN          CT   MESONET         

0410 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEW HAVEN               41.31N  72.93W
08/27/2020  M69 MPH          NEW HAVEN          CT   MESONET         

0412 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND SOUTH END               41.25N  72.90W
08/27/2020  M40 MPH          NEW HAVEN          CT   WXFLOW          

            MEASURED GUST AT LIGHTHOUSE POINT. 

0414 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH HAVEN             41.38N  72.86W
08/27/2020                   NEW HAVEN          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREES DOWN WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO 
            HOMES ON PALMER ROAD. 

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRANFORD                41.28N  72.81W
08/27/2020                   NEW HAVEN          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS 
            BRANFORD. 

0416 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRANFORD                41.28N  72.81W
08/27/2020                   NEW HAVEN          CT   NWS EMPLOYEE    

            TREE TOPS TWISTED AND POWER LINES DOWN ON FEATHERBED 
            LANE. 

0420 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  3 SE BRANFORD           41.24N  72.76W
08/27/2020  M46 MPH          NEW HAVEN          CT   MESONET         

0422 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WALDEN                  41.56N  74.19W
08/27/2020                   ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN WITH MEDIUM SIZED TREES 
            SNAPPED. 

0438 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CUTCHOGUE               41.01N  72.49W
08/27/2020                   SUFFOLK            NY   SOCIAL MEDIA    

            LARGE BRANCH DOWN. 

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CUTCHOGUE               41.01N  72.49W
08/27/2020                   SUFFOLK            NY   SOCIAL MEDIA    

            LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN NEAR OREGON RD AND BRIDGE LANE 

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTHOLD                41.06N  72.43W
08/27/2020                   SUFFOLK            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING RT 48. 

0450 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND REEVES PARK             40.97N  72.71W
08/27/2020  M53 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   WXFLOW          

            MEASURED GUST. 

0450 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 SSE DUCK ISLAND ROADS 41.24N  72.50W
08/27/2020  M48 MPH          ANZ330             CT   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            BOATER MEASURED WIND GUST. 

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENPORT               41.10N  72.37W
08/27/2020                   SUFFOLK            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            TREE DOWN AND BLOCKING WILLOW ST. 

0456 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 SE PONQUOGUE          40.84N  72.48W
08/27/2020  M40 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   WXFLOW          

0504 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOMERS                  41.33N  73.69W
08/27/2020                   WESTCHESTER        NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING SOMERS ROAD BETWEEN SOMERSET DRIVE 
            AND CRANE ROAD. 

0515 PM     HAIL             SOUTH SALEM             41.27N  73.55W
08/27/2020  M0.88 INCH       WESTCHESTER        NY   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            REPORTS OF NICKEL SIZED HAIL LASTING FOR SEVERAL 
            MINUTES. 

0516 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTH SALEM             41.27N  73.55W
08/27/2020                   WESTCHESTER        NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            TREE DOWN ON NY-123 NORTH OF ELMWOOD ROAD. 

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POUND RIDGE             41.21N  73.57W
08/27/2020                   WESTCHESTER        NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF 
            TOWN. 

0526 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILTON                  41.18N  73.42W
08/27/2020                   FAIRFIELD          CT   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            TREES DOWN ON DANBURY RD 

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTPORT                41.12N  73.35W
08/27/2020                   FAIRFIELD          CT   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            NUMEROUS TRESS AND WIRES DOWN ACROSS WESTPORT. 

0534 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTPORT                41.12N  73.35W
08/27/2020                   FAIRFIELD          CT   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            *** 1 INJ *** TREES DOWN AND WIRES ON CAR WITH PEOPLE 
            TRAPPED ON WILTON ROAD. ONE PERSON ATTEMPTED TO EXIT AND 
            WAS SHOCKED. 

0538 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTPORT                41.12N  73.35W
08/27/2020                   FAIRFIELD          CT   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            POWER POLES DOWN ON OLD HILL ROAD. ROAD IS CLOSED. 

0623 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THOMPSON RIDGE          41.57N  74.33W
08/27/2020                   ORANGE             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            TREES DOWN ON STATE HIGHWAY 302 NORTH OF CR17 

0624 PM     HAIL             MONTGOMERY              41.52N  74.24W
08/27/2020  M1.00 INCH       ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL. 

0624 PM     TSTM WND GST     MONTGOMERY              41.52N  74.24W
08/27/2020  E70 MPH          ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            ESTIMATED 70 MPH WIND GUST ALONG WITH QUARTER SIZED 
            HAIL. 

0652 PM     HAIL             CENTEREACH              40.87N  73.08W
08/27/2020  M0.75 INCH       SUFFOLK            NY   NWS EMPLOYEE    

            LASTED FOR 3 MINUTES 

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARMEL                  41.41N  73.68W
08/27/2020                   PUTNAM             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGH THE TOWN 

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAHOPAC                 41.37N  73.74W
08/27/2020                   PUTNAM             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. POWER LINES DOWN. 

0703 PM     HAIL             PATCHOGUE               40.76N  73.02W
08/27/2020  M0.75 INCH       SUFFOLK            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER 

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BREWSTER                41.40N  73.62W
08/27/2020                   PUTNAM             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES. 

0718 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RIDGEFIELD              41.27N  73.50W
08/27/2020                   FAIRFIELD          CT   SOCIAL MEDIA    

            VIDEO OF A LARGE TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE. 

0742 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW NORTH WILTON       41.20N  73.48W
08/27/2020                   FAIRFIELD          CT   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            TREES DOWN ACROSS ROCKY BROOK RD 

0744 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W NORTH WILTON        41.21N  73.48W
08/27/2020                   FAIRFIELD          CT   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            TREES DOWN ON JOURNEY'S END RD 

0746 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PATERSON                40.91N  74.16W
08/27/2020                   PASSAIC            NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON E 22ND STREET. 

0751 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 SE PONQUOGUE          40.84N  72.48W
08/27/2020  M44 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   WXFLOW          

0817 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEWARK AIRPORT          40.67N  74.22W
08/27/2020  M71 MPH          UNION              NJ   ASOS            

0826 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE OCEANSIDE         40.63N  73.62W
08/27/2020                   NASSAU             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            WIRES DOWN ON MURDOCK AVENUE JUST WEST OF LAWSON 
            BOULEVARD 

0829 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 SSE POINT LOOKOUT     40.56N  73.56W
08/27/2020  M55 MPH          ANZ355             NY   WXFLOW          

0831 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ATLANTIC BEACH          40.59N  73.72W
08/27/2020                   NASSAU             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            WIRES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON PUTNAM BOULEVARD 

0835 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 SW BREEZY POINT       40.55N  73.93W
08/27/2020  M40 MPH          QUEENS             NY   WXFLOW          

0850 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 15 S ATLANTIC BEACH EST 40.37N  73.70W
08/27/2020  M49 MPH          ANZ355             NY   BUOY            

0854 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 8 S SEAGATE             40.47N  74.01W
08/27/2020  M55 MPH          ANZ338             NY   MESONET         

            A MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 48 KNOTS WAS 
            REPORTED AT AN ELEVATION OF 18 FT 

0910 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 26 S ROBERT MOSES STATE 40.25N  73.16W
08/27/2020  M45 MPH          ANZ373             NY   BUOY            


&&


$$

MW
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3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Early CoCoRAHS reports. Digital storm totals were over 3", nearly 4" in a part of CT. Included one sample WXUNDERGROUND.

Graphic of yesterdays svr wx reports. 825A/28

 

Screen Shot 2020-08-27 at 11.37.49 PM.png

 

I was in Danbury and Brookfield as that cell slid by to the north. That was one of the more dramatic storms I've watched this year, it was black and the clouds were bubbling and rolling and the wall of rain falling out of it was impressive. Where I was barely even got wet until later so I could sit and watch the show.

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Hi!  Here is a very good summary of supercell path through CT by Dr Anton Seimon with supporting guidance etc from NBC Met Ryan Hanrahan.  

I post this because this event, for late August was pretty substantial and especially for parts of CT.  SPC did a good job capturing a fairly high end event.

This is my last on the 27th... but I wanted you to appreciate the discussion and additional information.  The appended images would need to be inserted into the discussion below... but if you take a moment, you can see some value added. 

B
Back on Thursday, while many on this list were tracking the progress of TC Laura through Louisiana, a strong supercell thunderstorm tracked from south of Albany southeastward across Connecticut to Long Island Sound. Major damage was registered in several towns in Connecticut, and the NWS has confirmed an EF-1 tornado track with an 18-km path, and more widespread damage along a broader path from a series of microbursts. The severe weather potential was amply recognized in SPC Outlooks and Discussions leading up to the event, and the localization of the most severe threat to a narrow corridor was especially well represented in guidance from convection-allowing NAM operational runs.  Here is one NAM guidance product, courtesy of the College of DuPage, from the 18 UTC run on 26 August; the most severe damage occurred close to 20 UTC (4 pm EDT), so 26 hours after model initialization. 
 
 
 
The 12 UTC/27th run 18 hours later maintained this high-end supercell scenario in time and place. 
 
 
 
The o
The overall setup of a supercell tracking along a surface warm frontal boundary under seasonally strong northwest flow has striking similarities to an even stronger event from 10 July 1989, which produced a 100+km track of forest blowdown in Connecticut culminating in an F4 tornado at Hamden.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Northeastern_United_States_tornado_outbreak
 
The NBC meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan offered a meteorological overview of the setup on Thursday: 
 
There are some remarkable images and video sequences that have been posted on the Internet.  Ryan’s Twitter feed provides a good collection, including the screen-grabbed image below of the advancing mesocyclone as it reached Long Island Sound at Madison.  
 
 
 
 
Be sure to view this dash cam video from a driver caught in the rain-wrapped mesocyclone in North Branford at 4:10 pm EDT:
Be sure to view this dash cam video from a driver caught in the rain-wrapped mesocyclone in North Branford at 4:10 pm EDT:
 
The National Weather Service office at Brookhaven NY (OKX) surveyed the damage yesterday and posted findings on the tornado and microburst damage. 
 
 
There is ample evidence from KOKX radar Doppler velocity scans that the wind field in southwest quadrant of the mesocyclone circulation, augmented in a ground-relative sense by the storm’s rapid southeast motion reached hurricane force along an axis several km wide. The Radarscope screen grab below from 7-8 minutes after the assessed tornado dissipation time shows a conventional signature of a high-precipitation supercell with inbound pixel values of 42 m/s: this corresponds very closely in time and space with the video linked above.   unnamed.thumb.jpg.bc7047536b4747d0d91773a872322e0b.jpgunnamed-1.png.20efafe67bac5055890d9bb82be9d6f1.png
 
 


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