Professor Michael Mann on Wildfires

[BillT]

On 9/1/2020 at 11:19 AM, skierinvermont said:

Even if the blanket were not touching me the air gets warmer inside the blanket because the heat loss is slowed. CO2 is very similar to a blanket being thrown over the earth. Do you deny that the air inside the blanket gets warmer even though the molecules of the blanket scatter heat in random directions? This random scattering of heat can all be simulated by computer and it shows warming in the lower layers.

the room doesn’t get warmer because the room is outer space and the stratosphere in this example. They actually cool as does the room temporarily because less heat is escaping until the earth or air inside the blanket get so hot they start emitting enough heat that the energy flows balance again

would that warming be by radiation or direct contact with your warm body in the air that is almost trapped?

[BillT]

1 hour ago, blizzard1024 said:

I don't think he did this on purpose or was fraudulent with his research. I do not agree with his methodology and yes his statistics are flawed. But he believes in his work. That's all. 

it is hard for me to accept that any "scientist"would use flawed data and bad methodology as part of their pursuit of the truth.

[blizzard1024]

7 minutes ago, BillT said:

it is hard for me to accept that any "scientist"would use flawed data and bad methodology as part of their pursuit of the truth.

I don't personally know him. I know he built an empire on the CAGW theory so if he was wrong his life's work is wrong. That would sting anyone's ego. But I don't think scientists try to use bad data or methodology on purpose. Maybe he just didn't know? 

 

[BillT]

8 minutes ago, blizzard1024 said:

I don't personally know him. I know he built an empire on the CAGW theory so if he was wrong his life's work is wrong. That would sting anyone's ego. But I don't think scientists try to use bad data or methodology on purpose. Maybe he just didn't know? 

 

i saw a poker show a couple of nights ago in a very expensive area where multi million dollar yachts are docked...at one home they were showing along that water that said that is michael mann's house,IF it is the same person he sure is very wealthy for a college professor.,,,a quick check indicates there is more than one M mann and at least one of them is wealthy

[bdgwx]

It's not just a hockey stick, its a whole hockey league of hockey sticks now. There are so many hockey stick publications corroborating MBH98 that it's hard to collate them all anymore.

I will post this recent study which I believe represents the best compilation of the available datasets and reconstruction of the holocene temperature to date.

A global database of Holocene paleotemperature records

And using that database...

Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach

[donsutherland1]

A new paper on climate change and California’s wildfire risks:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7

[bdgwx]

19 hours ago, blizzard1024 said:

Sorry they can't erase the Medieval Warm Period or LIA. They happened. Tons of evidence. This is just plain wrong. 

Nobody has erased the MWP or LIA. It has always be suspected that the MWP and LIA were most acute from Canada to Europe. Hubert Lamb, who was an early pioneer of MWP and LIA research and even coined the term "Medieval Warm Epoch", stated that the MWP was not global in nature and that many areas of the world actually cooled during this period (Lamb 1982). MBH98 and subsequent reconstructions of the holocene temperature have essentially confirmed what had already been believed regarding the matter. Mann definitely accepts that the MWP and LIA were real phenomenon (see Mann 2002). Like you said...there is tons of evidence. That same body of evidence says that global mean temperature response was far more muted than the North Atlantic temperature response.

[blizzard1024]

1 hour ago, bdgwx said:

Nobody has erased the MWP or LIA. It has always be suspected that the MWP and LIA were most acute from Canada to Europe. Hubert Lamb, who was an early pioneer of MWP and LIA research and even coined the term "Medieval Warm Epoch", stated that the MWP was not global in nature and that many areas of the world actually cooled during this period (Lamb 1982). MBH98 and subsequent reconstructions of the holocene temperature have essentially confirmed what had already been believed regarding the matter. Mann definitely accepts that the MWP and LIA were real phenomenon (see Mann 2002). Like you said...there is tons of evidence. That same body of evidence says that global mean temperature response was far more muted than the North Atlantic temperature response.

So the warmth of the MWP and cold of the LIA was local? That makes no sense. How can you keep warm and cold anomalies in one area and not the rest of the globe for centuries? That is against fundamental fluid dynamics of the Earth;s atmosphere. The uneven heating of the rotating planet eventually mixes to the far reaches of the globe. This is pretty elementary stuff. Amazing it was not accepted.  Shows profound lack of understanding of how the atmosphere works... 

 

And MBH98 has been disproven so many times. its amazing the alarmists still hold onto this ship that sunk a decade ago. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, blizzard1024 said:

So the warmth of the MWP and cold of the LIA was local? That makes no sense. How can you keep warm and cold anomalies in one area and not the rest of the globe for centuries? That is against fundamental fluid dynamics of the Earth;s atmosphere. The uneven heating of the rotating planet eventually mixes to the far reaches of the globe. This is pretty elementary stuff. Amazing it was not accepted.  Shows profound lack of understanding of how the atmosphere works... 

 

And MBH98 has been disproven so many times. its amazing the alarmists still hold onto this ship that sunk a decade ago. 

MBH98 has not been disproven. Excerpts from a review of the MBH reconstruction:

The results presented here show no evidence for removing the MBH Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction from the list of important climate reconstructions of the past six centuries, on the basis of alleged “flaws” in its use of proxy data or underlying methodology. Indeed, our analyses act as an overall indication of the robustness of the MBH reconstruction to a variety of issues raised concerning its methods of assimilating proxy data, and also to two significant simplifications of the MBH method that we have introduced. The shape of a single-bladed “hockey stick”-like evolution of Northern Hemisphere temperature over the last 600 years is strongly confirmed within the MBH reconstruction framework (general algorithm and proxy data). Questions of potential loss of downward amplitude in the MBH method remain, but the evidence developed here from the perspective of the proxy data themselves suggests such losses may be smaller than those shown in other recent work.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/rc4a/millennium/refs/Wahl_ClimChange2007.pdf

 

[bdgwx]

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is a pretty compelling explanation for the swings in temperature on the periphery of the North Atlantic.

I'm only aware of McKitrick and McIntyre's shots across the bow of that ship. In the two plus decades since MBH98 a whole squadron of ships have launched. All are still floating.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 8/31/2020 at 11:08 AM, donsutherland1 said:

A healthier diet and other lifestyle changes, independent of anything to do with climate change, would likely reduce comorbidities among the American population, expanding with life spans and the quality of life.

indeed!  and lower our pollution levels too.  There is a tweet thread I wanted to draw your attention to

 

[LibertyBell]

 

[LibertyBell]

 

[LibertyBell]

On 9/2/2020 at 7:21 AM, blizzard1024 said:

Come on people. It is the poor forest management practices in Ca and the west. Suppressing fires for many many decades is now reached a breaking point. People also have been encroaching on the forests with developments vs 50 years ago. There are more people in harms way now. Anyone who says climate change is causing this is uninformed.   This is the time of year when the hottest and driest conditions occur in CA. The jet stream begins to amplify over the Gulf of Alaska in late summer climatologically. This leads to more ridging in the west and Santa Ana winds. A dry heat. Its fire season now. If you have that plus a LOT of fuel...its gonna be bad. How does climate change cause this? You have got to be kidding thinking this is causing the fires. 

it's not just California, it's happening all over the world.

[LibertyBell]

On 8/30/2020 at 9:34 PM, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect the problem with the “Green New Deal” has less to do with its climate provisions than with the non-climate provisions. Hopefully, sooner rather than later, science will take precedence over other interests when it comes to addressing the challenge of climate change.

it's good to see Exxon removed from the primary stock exchange, hopefully Chevron is next:

We banned fracking here in NY after a year long scientific study showed how awful it is for the environment (methane leaks, earthquakes, etc.) hopefully the rest of the nation follows suit....it certainly seems that the fossil fuel industry controls certain parts of the country, or else it'd be banned there already.

Proving 'A Different World Is Possible,' Exxon Dropped From Dow Jones After 92-Year Run - https://go.shr.lc/34zpsp8 via

@commondreams

 

Another positive, with more progressive politicians winning House races (like the recent one in MA) we may not need to wait for Gen Zers to break the back of the corrupt fossil fuel industry cartels, which functions in much the same way as the Colombia drug cartel does (a similar analogy can be drawn to the big pharma cartel), especially when you look at how they were concealing climate change research going all the way back to the 70s and how they try to suppress descent.  I heard that NJ recently joined 19 other states in suing the fossil fuel industry to pay them for architecture they need to develop to combat sea level rise which is already inundating our coastal areas.  I think before this is all done, you'll see more than a few of these industry leaders going to prison for what they've done.....the closest analogy I can think of is either mafia or cartel, and remember that  the notorious J Edgar Hoover himself stated that the mafia didn't exist in America....

[donsutherland1]

In its coverage of the ongoing severe wildfires in California, The Washington Post provided a linkage to climate change: The article noted:

Studies show human-caused climate change is tilting the odds in favor of more frequent, severe and longer lasting heat waves, as well as larger wildfires throughout large parts of the West. Research published last month, for example, shows climate change is tied to more frequent occurrences of extreme-fire-risk days in parts of California during the fall (meteorologists define the fall as beginning on Sept. 1).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/09/06/california-wildfires-heat-wave/

 

[donsutherland1]

California’s biggest wildfires:

 

[LibertyBell]

On 9/6/2020 at 11:04 PM, donsutherland1 said:

California’s biggest wildfires:

 

Don, a question about the terminology- why are the largest fires referred to as "complex"?

 

[donsutherland1]

44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, a question about the terminology- why are the largest fires referred to as "complex"?

 

Because they were multiple fires that merged into a single massive blaze.

[donsutherland1]

An insightful piece from CBS meteorologist Jeff Berardelli:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-extreme-weather-wildfires-snow-jet-stream/

[donsutherland1]

Chicago Sun Times editorial on the wildfires raging in the West:

https://chicago.suntimes.com/platform/amp/2020/9/13/21432733/wildfires-derecho-climate-change-suntimes-editorial

[chubbs]

 

[Bhs1975]

 

Seems like with AGW the rich get richer and the poor get poorer with respect to precipitation.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, Bhs1975 said:

Seems like with AGW the rich get richer and the poor get poorer with respect to precipitation.

Nature mimicking the inequalities of human society on all levels we are seeing now.

[donsutherland1]

CNN reported:

California's Creek Fire is not only the largest single wildfire in the state known for huge and destructive blazes, it spawned two rare firenados a day after the fire started earlier this month.

  One firenado -- short for fire tornado -- was rated an EF-2, with winds up to 125 miles per hour. The other had winds of up to 100 miles per hour and was rated an EF-1.

  They wreaked havoc across the rugged area, the result of "unprecedented fire behavior," government forecasters said Thursday.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/24/us/california-fire-tornado-creek-fire/index.html

[donsutherland1]

A review of the scientific literature on climate change and wildfires:

https://news.sciencebrief.org/wildfires-sep2020-update/

[chubbs]

[Bhs1975]

All this forest management talk is BS. It made the issue worse but without AGW to dry it up we wouldn’t be having these mega fires.

[donsutherland1]

CBS’ 60 Minutes had a feature story on California’s wildfires. Climate change was covered quite a bit. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/western-wilfires-record-temperatures-california-60-minutes-2020-10-04/

This is exactly the kind of journalism that is needed. The public needs to learn the “why” behind the nation’s increasing disasters.

[tamarack]

On 10/3/2020 at 10:08 AM, Bhs1975 said:

All this forest management talk is BS. It made the issue worse but without AGW to dry it up we wouldn’t be having these mega fires.

To this forester, "BS" is unfortunately dismissive, and I think that the literature review posted by Don S. on 9/24 support that opinion.  We need to be doing much much more in energy sources/use and lifestyles to mitigate the increasing effects of climate change, but that's a long-term project.  Improved land/forest/vegetation management can reduce the hazards in the short term, especially in the wildland-urban interface.  It's not either/or, though cc-mitigation must be a global process while improving land management is more local.  (And when I use the phrase "long-term project" it's in the sense of growing trees, as exemplified by this proverb (either Chinese or Japanese, can't recall), "The best time to plant a tree is 10 years ago; second best is today."  Same goes for cc-mitigation.)