Tropical connection NYC forum area Fri-Sun 8/28-30/20

[forkyfork]

Just now, psv88 said:

How so? Areas of NYC saw severe winds. 
 

Newark saw a gust to 71. What am I missing lol

ct had a cluster of supercells. that newark gust was a localized downburst 

[NJwx85]

It was a bust, especially considering we were in a day 2 enhanced risk with hatched probabilities.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

It was a bust, especially considering we were in a day 2 enhanced risk with hatched probabilities.

The biggest NYC and Long Island severe events can occur on days without enhanced risk outlooks. This is not a knock on the fantastic SPC forecast team. But more a reflection on how these events really seem to emerge in the very short term. Perhaps this is just an inherent feature of our local severe thunderstorm climatology.

6-30-2019

https://1010wins.radio.com/articles/wild-weather-leaves-2-dead-3-injured-thousands-without-power

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20190630

 

9-16-10
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20100916

8-8-07
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20070807

Paper on both events

https://journals.ametsoc.org/waf/article/27/6/1326/39693/Tornadoes-in-the-New-York-Metropolitan-Region

 

[Cfa]

I’m always leery with Enhanced Risks, my reasoning is purely anecdotal but they always seem to bust (for us) in some capacity. My expectations for all severe thunderstorm threats are always at zero, so the light show was a pleasant surprise.

I could really use some rain though because I was largely spared yesterday. My rain gauge was jammed so collection stopped at 0.01”, in reality my total rainfall couldn’t have been much more than that, probably ~0.10” at best. Soil moisture was 45% yesterday, it’s currently 56%.

[jm1220]

The warm front went further north than expected, so the line of storms instead went through upstate NY and CT rather than through the metro area. Could’ve easily been as predicted and the storms go 75 miles SW. 

[qg_omega]

Absolutely pouring

[Rtd208]

SPC Day 1

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The warm front went further north than expected, so the line of storms instead went through upstate NY and CT rather than through the metro area. Could’ve easily been as predicted and the storms go 75 miles SW. 

These enhanced or higher level severe outlooks usually verify in some portion of the outlined area. But since NYC/LI is only 25 miles wide from north to south, a small shift can make a big difference for us. The July 26, 2012 MDT risk wound up just to our north and west. But the September 8th, 2012 Breezy Point and Canarsie tornado was within that MDT risk.

[gravitylover]

Very heavy rain now, gutters are overflowing and the driveways across the street have water running down them like a waterfall. 

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

These enhanced or higher level severe outlooks usually verify in some portion of the outlined area. But since NYC/LI is only 25 miles wide from north to south, a small shift can make a big difference for us. The July 26, 2012 MDT risk wound up just to our north and west. But the September 8th, 2012 Breezy Point and Canarsie tornado was within that MDT risk.

This forum is a lot wider than 25 miles.

[gravitylover]

Well that was fun, .25" in 10 minutes. It's lighter again but still coming down at a good clip.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This forum is a lot wider than 25 miles.

I was talking specifically about NYC and Long Island severe weather events.  The narrow 25 mile wide zone of NYC and Long Island has a population of over 11 million people. So we have a very high proportion of the members in the forum. That’s  why severe weather and snowstorm forecasts varying by 25-50 miles make a big difference for us. This is often within the margin of error for model forecasts. Not a big deal when it happens in less densely populated regions across the country. But there are more people to notice these small shifts in our tiny geographic region.

[NJwx85]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was talking specifically about NYC and Long Island severe weather events.  The narrow 25 mile wide zone of NYC and Long Island has a population of over 11 million people. So we have a very high proportion of the members in the forum. That’s  why severe weather and snowstorm forecasts varying by 25-50 miles make a big difference for us. This is often within the margin of error for model forecasts. Not a big deal when it happens in less densely populated regions across the country. But there are more people to notice these small shifts in our tiny geographic region.

New Jersey is the most densely populated state in the country.

[donsutherland1]

Wilmington DE picked up 1.03” rain in the past hour, but that area of intense rainfall is heading east-northeastward and will stay well south of Newark.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

New Jersey is the most densely populated state in the country.

Still about 2.5 million fewer people than NYC and LI. But most of the population is located in the northern part of the state closest to NYC Metro.

[psv88]

Where is the rain?

[uofmiami]

34 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Where is the rain?

Looks like some rain from S NJ moving NE may clip you and E LI. Otherwise have to wait for line of showers in E PA to move in.

[Stormlover74]

Weaksauce

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

My point is, you make it sound like New Jersey is Oklahoma. Even South Jersey is more densely populated than most rural states. 

 All I initially mentioned was the challenges of forecasting for NYC and Long Island. You were the one that brought up NJ. When I mentioned other less populated parts of the country ,NJ wasn’t what I was thinking. The NNJ most densely  populated counties  also present their own set of forecasting challenges. I would say that the totality of the OKX forecast zones in NY, NJ, and CT are probably the most challenging part of the country to forecast for. Most densely populated part of the country with marine zones and mountains and a wide variety of annual changing weather. So our forum is quite unique in that regard.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

Looks like some rain from S NJ moving NE may clip you and E LI. Otherwise have to wait for line of showers in E PA to move in.

Yea some rain now. Not what was advertised though. 

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea some rain now. Not what was advertised though. 

The models lost the big rains for today three days ago.

[NJwx85]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 All I initially mentioned was the challenges of forecasting for NYC and Long Island. You were the one that brought up NJ. When I mentioned other less populated parts of the country ,NJ wasn’t what I was thinking. The NNJ most densely  populated counties  also present their own set of forecasting challenges. I would say that the totality of the OKX forecast zones in NY, NJ, and CT are probably the most challenging part of the country to forecast for. Most densely populated part of the country with marine zones and mountains and a wide variety of annual changing weather. So our forum is quite unique in that regard.

And my initial point was that NY is no more special than any other highly densely populated area in the country. Chicago experiences the same forecasting criticisms as us with snow and severe. Same goes for every other big city. LA would too if they actually had more than 2 seasons.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

And my initial point was that NY is no more special than any other highly densely populated area in the country. Chicago experiences the same forecasting criticisms as us with snow and severe. Same goes for every other big city. LA would too if they actually had more than 2 seasons.

There are no other parts of the country with the population density of the OKX forecast zones. While Chicago has the change of seasons like we do, they don’t have the added challenge of coastal storms and hurricanes/tropical storms. So the OKX forecast office in Upton  has a unique combination of high population, changing elevation, marine influence, tropical cyclones, and a wide variety of active changing weather throughout the year.
 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183600/population-of-metropolitan-areas-in-the-us/

[psv88]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are no other parts of the country with the population density of the OKX forecast zones. While Chicago has the change of seasons like we do, they don’t have the added challenge of coastal storms and hurricanes/tropical storms. So the OKX forecast office in Upton  has a unique combination of high population, changing elevation, marine influence, tropical cyclones, and a wide variety of active changing weather throughout the year.
 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183600/population-of-metropolitan-areas-in-the-us/

Correct. Upton has to forecast for Montauk point and high point NJ, up to Orange County. Totally different climates.

chicago doesn’t have different climates like that, other than some areas which may have lake breezes from time to time 

[Cfa]

OKX, despite its relatively diminutive area compared to other forecasting offices, spans 4 climate classifications:

• Cfa (subtropical)
• Cfb (oceanic)
• Dfa (continental: hot summer)
• Dfb (continental: warm summer)

[uofmiami]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Yea some rain now. Not what was advertised though. 

Yep, OKX definitely blew the forecast. Had close to 1” for us and I doubt we see .25” when all is said and done. 

[Intensewind002]

Only have .11" so far today

[uofmiami]

 

[Tatamy]

Mt. Holly has issued a SSW for my area for the line heading towards me from Carbon County, PA.  Looks like it will be a quick hitter.

[Tatamy]

This line is putting out a lot of lightning right now as it comes out of the Poconos.  It is producing 2-4 strikes per second according to my Tempest.