Rjay Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 On 8/20/2020 at 2:59 PM, ldub23 said: I think the Euro is the model to follow. has 13 as basically nothing(it may be a wave now) and 14 as a weakening tropical storm in texas. 14 may be open as well. I think if 97L gets buried in mexico and if 98 can slow down dramatically in the bahamas and turn north it may be able to be another Isaias. If it continues flying west development is doubtful. 2 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Electric grid is going to be a mess for a long time. Im sure crews from other states have been pre-positioned. If anything it looks to me land interaction will keep it intact as it comes ashore. Go away! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said: smoked a couple bowls and hit the dog park...did i miss anything good? People arguing over the southern eye wall and cows. Lots of cows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: People arguing over the southern eye wall and cows. Lots of cows. yeah i picked up the jist of that. i dunno what the big deal is. it looks to be filled most of the way back in and pressures are still well under 940. its going to absolutely slobberknock the region even if its a halfacane in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: smoked a couple bowls and hit the dog park...did i miss anything good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: People arguing over the southern eye wall and cows. Lots of cows. No, I think it was the same cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 I'm sorry but this board is my favorite thing. You've got people arguing about small changes to intensity, you've got people arguing about radar, you've got people who are trying to get people to stop arguing, you've got people just making jokes, you've got awesome real analysis, you've got great chances to learn, and you've got people posting about arguments that happened 15 minutes ago because they just don't read what's happened since the last time the page refreshed. Y'all are great. Carry on, and stay safe. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Just now, Uncle Bobby said: No, I think it was the same cow. I think it was more than one. Let’s argue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Bobby Boucher is gonna have to have a lot of High quality H2O ready to go for the Bayous late tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 My favorite part was the debris ball in the eye thing. Now that was creative! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: smoked a couple bowls and hit the dog park...did i miss anything good? Ha! So did I, gone for an hour with the dogs went back on the main thread, 200+ new posts??? Can't see the forest for the trees shit there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, Tater Tot said: My favorite part was the debris ball in the eye thing. Now that was creative! Oh to be a bird flying in the middle of a hurricane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Just now, Tar Heel Snow said: Oh to be a bird flying in the middle of a hurricane! Honestly, sounds exhausting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: I'm sorry but this board is my favorite thing. You've got people arguing about small changes to intensity, you've got people arguing about radar, you've got people who are trying to get people to stop arguing, you've got people just making jokes, you've got awesome real analysis, you've got great chances to learn, and you've got people posting about arguments that happened 15 minutes ago because they just don't read what's happened since the last time the page refreshed. Y'all are great. Carry on, and stay safe. Yep. That’s why I have been a mod all these years. I’m almost ready to start filming my new movie, “One Watched Over the Cuckoo Nest”. It’s gonna be big! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Also I love how the relentless activity came to a dead stop as soon as everyone was told to stop bitching about the southern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Just now, Tater Tot said: Also I love how the relentless activity came to a dead stop as soon as everyone was told to stop bitching about the southern eyewall. dont worry, things will pick up soon once a chaser gets trapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Tater Tot said: Also I love how the relentless activity came to a dead stop as soon as everyone was told to stop bitching about the southern eyewall. I only stopped because I had said all I had to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: dont worry, things will pick up soon once a chaser gets trapped. Reed is sitting on a surface street right now so depending on where he's at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Somebody posted a link to Jeff Piotrowski's site. Did you know Jeff invented data transfer via cellphones? True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 What would "non-quick" thoughts look like? Moderately Unstable Posted 3 minutes ago Few quick thoughts... 1) Comments about splitting hairs. This is a WEATHER website. To talk about the details. If we were interested in the big picture, that is, large destructive hurricane, and DID NOT care about comparing it to other storms, combing through models, wondering about this or that mesovortex, we could read NOAAs discussion or follow TWC and go on our merry way. This is a weather weenie website primarily, to discuss the details. If not here, there is no place else. That said, there is intelligent banter, and, creative banter. Throwing stuff out because you know some big words but don't know how they fit together, isn't helpful. 2) People DO see what they want to see. Some mets and folks want a weak storm. No one "wants" a strong storm, but, on some visceral level, again, no one would be here if it was a clear sunny day. Rocket scientists like big rockets. Astronomers like big telescopes. Meteorology folks are interested by severe events. The more severe, the more they're interested. That's human psychology. Everyone, deep down, looks at that car crash when they pass, trying to get a view and slowing everyone else down. Same with storms. The sheer power and awe that that causes in humans is why human's always pay attention to "bad" events. News events are the same way. Boring? bleh. Major? Bring on the carnage, where's the popcorn. Humans are a fairly savage species, and beneath all of the pleasant "oh good golly gosh I sure do hope this all goes away", when no one looks, most watch the damage, whatever that damage is. Reality shows are a giant hit for a reason. I'm not saying that to justify the behavior, but when you see people in the forum foaming over these details...that's why. Good or bad. It is human. 3) The eyewall is likely undergoing, or was trying to undergo elements of a replacement cycle. This is easy to spot. There was (until recently) a lot of lightning around the eyewall, which is a hallmark of eyewall replacement cycles. Most hurricanes do not have much lightning surrounding the eye. It is in the outer bands. Lightning around the eye, with deformation of the eye's axis, indicate instability of the eye, and possible initiation of a replacement, which seems to have started around 1.5 hours-2 hours ago. Lightning with no deformation can just indicate an incredibly strong and still strengthening storm. Here we have deformation and lightning...replacement. Almost all major hurricanes of this strength undergo one, particularly when some type of synoptic forcing mechanism is present and even more particularly after a period of rapid intensification. The degree to which Laura strengthened and the rapidity were both off-the-charts high. That means, an eyewall replacement is likely. However, once one starts, they usually take around 12 hours to complete. Within that time, you have concentric eyewalls. Typically this occurs whenthe storms surrounding the eye tighten and choke the inner circulation. That was the case earlier, but, for somewhat interesting reasons, a portion of the eye weakened to the south, in effect sort of stopping this "choking" process, BUT also, weakening the eye a bit. This leads to two possible future outcomes, either the eyewall replacement cycle will continue and the storm WILL weaken a bit before landfall, likely at a low end cat 4 strength or in a maximum reduction scenario upper 3...which has been noted by almost every single NHC update...or, the opening will slow down the process, the northern eye will continue to keep itself together and reorganize a tight southern eyewall by landfall, keeping the storm at upper 4 strength. Paradoxically, by having this opening, the storm may actually be stronger than it would otherwise be, if a full replacement cycle were able to occur. In either case, upgrading to cat 5 is highly unlikely. The SFMR winds, do not show continued strengthening, and shear is increasing a bit. This is all offset by stupid warm water temps. That's the story of this year, and it means more storms WILL follow Laura, some likely major. A wave just left Africa today. Hurricanes conceptually exist as a transporter of momentum and heat from the equator (where there is more), to the mid-lats (where there is less). The likely scenario is maintenance of category to landfall. That may disappoint all the carnal folks (see #2) that are wishcasting a cat 5 but that isn't the job of meteorologists. The job is, forecast and accurately describe the weather. Views/dreams/hopes are not relevant to forecasting and delineate the difference between the NWS, and this forum. One thing I do, when I realize I'm looking at a situation with bias in any direction, is I try to first imagine the opposite outcome happening. I want something to go one way, I imagine it does the exact opposite-weather or otherwise. That gets me out of wish mode and into objective mode. I've seen the other side of the coin so I can be more objective. So, folks, imagine for a minute before landfall this downgrades to a high end cat 2. Get out your yay's and oh noes or thank goodnesses or whatever is deep inside of you. Once you do that, come back to looking at the data, and you'll be more objective in figuring this all out. Cheers, Moderately Unstable 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 my eyes were bleeding after reading that.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: What would "non-quick" thoughts look like? Moderately Unstable Posted 3 minutes ago Few quick thoughts... 1) Comments about splitting hairs. This is a WEATHER website. To talk about the details. If we were interested in the big picture, that is, large destructive hurricane, and DID NOT care about comparing it to other storms, combing through models, wondering about this or that mesovortex, we could read NOAAs discussion or follow TWC and go on our merry way. This is a weather weenie website primarily, to discuss the details. If not here, there is no place else. That said, there is intelligent banter, and, creative banter. Throwing stuff out because you know some big words but don't know how they fit together, isn't helpful. 2) People DO see what they want to see. Some mets and folks want a weak storm. No one "wants" a strong storm, but, on some visceral level, again, no one would be here if it was a clear sunny day. Rocket scientists like big rockets. Astronomers like big telescopes. Meteorology folks are interested by severe events. The more severe, the more they're interested. That's human psychology. Everyone, deep down, looks at that car crash when they pass, trying to get a view and slowing everyone else down. Same with storms. The sheer power and awe that that causes in humans is why human's always pay attention to "bad" events. News events are the same way. Boring? bleh. Major? Bring on the carnage, where's the popcorn. Humans are a fairly savage species, and beneath all of the pleasant "oh good golly gosh I sure do hope this all goes away", when no one looks, most watch the damage, whatever that damage is. Reality shows are a giant hit for a reason. I'm not saying that to justify the behavior, but when you see people in the forum foaming over these details...that's why. Good or bad. It is human. 3) The eyewall is likely undergoing, or was trying to undergo elements of a replacement cycle. This is easy to spot. There was (until recently) a lot of lightning around the eyewall, which is a hallmark of eyewall replacement cycles. Most hurricanes do not have much lightning surrounding the eye. It is in the outer bands. Lightning around the eye, with deformation of the eye's axis, indicate instability of the eye, and possible initiation of a replacement, which seems to have started around 1.5 hours-2 hours ago. Lightning with no deformation can just indicate an incredibly strong and still strengthening storm. Here we have deformation and lightning...replacement. Almost all major hurricanes of this strength undergo one, particularly when some type of synoptic forcing mechanism is present and even more particularly after a period of rapid intensification. The degree to which Laura strengthened and the rapidity were both off-the-charts high. That means, an eyewall replacement is likely. However, once one starts, they usually take around 12 hours to complete. Within that time, you have concentric eyewalls. Typically this occurs whenthe storms surrounding the eye tighten and choke the inner circulation. That was the case earlier, but, for somewhat interesting reasons, a portion of the eye weakened to the south, in effect sort of stopping this "choking" process, BUT also, weakening the eye a bit. This leads to two possible future outcomes, either the eyewall replacement cycle will continue and the storm WILL weaken a bit before landfall, likely at a low end cat 4 strength or in a maximum reduction scenario upper 3...which has been noted by almost every single NHC update...or, the opening will slow down the process, the northern eye will continue to keep itself together and reorganize a tight southern eyewall by landfall, keeping the storm at upper 4 strength. Paradoxically, by having this opening, the storm may actually be stronger than it would otherwise be, if a full replacement cycle were able to occur. In either case, upgrading to cat 5 is highly unlikely. The SFMR winds, do not show continued strengthening, and shear is increasing a bit. This is all offset by stupid warm water temps. That's the story of this year, and it means more storms WILL follow Laura, some likely major. A wave just left Africa today. Hurricanes conceptually exist as a transporter of momentum and heat from the equator (where there is more), to the mid-lats (where there is less). The likely scenario is maintenance of category to landfall. That may disappoint all the carnal folks (see #2) that are wishcasting a cat 5 but that isn't the job of meteorologists. The job is, forecast and accurately describe the weather. Views/dreams/hopes are not relevant to forecasting and delineate the difference between the NWS, and this forum. One thing I do, when I realize I'm looking at a situation with bias in any direction, is I try to first imagine the opposite outcome happening. I want something to go one way, I imagine it does the exact opposite-weather or otherwise. That gets me out of wish mode and into objective mode. I've seen the other side of the coin so I can be more objective. So, folks, imagine for a minute before landfall this downgrades to a high end cat 2. Get out your yay's and oh noes or thank goodnesses or whatever is deep inside of you. Once you do that, come back to looking at the data, and you'll be more objective in figuring this all out. Cheers, Moderately Unstable masturbatory word vomit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 and lol at whoever thinks it was a good post.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 There's gonna be a blizzard of the millenium this winter and right when it hits 300 tapatalk posters are gonna say they found 2 snowflakes just alike. I won't mention what forum that likely is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 jeff p is such a weiner dont get me wrong, i am going to keep his stream on but he's just embellishing the heck out of these 40mph winds in lake charles rn like...why do that? in an hour you're gonna be getting pants shitting level video... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: What would "non-quick" thoughts look like? Moderately Unstable Posted 3 minutes ago Few quick thoughts... 1) Comments about splitting hairs. This is a WEATHER website. To talk about the details. If we were interested in the big picture, that is, large destructive hurricane, and DID NOT care about comparing it to other storms, combing through models, wondering about this or that mesovortex, we could read NOAAs discussion or follow TWC and go on our merry way. This is a weather weenie website primarily, to discuss the details. If not here, there is no place else. That said, there is intelligent banter, and, creative banter. Throwing stuff out because you know some big words but don't know how they fit together, isn't helpful. 2) People DO see what they want to see. Some mets and folks want a weak storm. No one "wants" a strong storm, but, on some visceral level, again, no one would be here if it was a clear sunny day. Rocket scientists like big rockets. Astronomers like big telescopes. Meteorology folks are interested by severe events. The more severe, the more they're interested. That's human psychology. Everyone, deep down, looks at that car crash when they pass, trying to get a view and slowing everyone else down. Same with storms. The sheer power and awe that that causes in humans is why human's always pay attention to "bad" events. News events are the same way. Boring? bleh. Major? Bring on the carnage, where's the popcorn. Humans are a fairly savage species, and beneath all of the pleasant "oh good golly gosh I sure do hope this all goes away", when no one looks, most watch the damage, whatever that damage is. Reality shows are a giant hit for a reason. I'm not saying that to justify the behavior, but when you see people in the forum foaming over these details...that's why. Good or bad. It is human. 3) The eyewall is likely undergoing, or was trying to undergo elements of a replacement cycle. This is easy to spot. There was (until recently) a lot of lightning around the eyewall, which is a hallmark of eyewall replacement cycles. Most hurricanes do not have much lightning surrounding the eye. It is in the outer bands. Lightning around the eye, with deformation of the eye's axis, indicate instability of the eye, and possible initiation of a replacement, which seems to have started around 1.5 hours-2 hours ago. Lightning with no deformation can just indicate an incredibly strong and still strengthening storm. Here we have deformation and lightning...replacement. Almost all major hurricanes of this strength undergo one, particularly when some type of synoptic forcing mechanism is present and even more particularly after a period of rapid intensification. The degree to which Laura strengthened and the rapidity were both off-the-charts high. That means, an eyewall replacement is likely. However, once one starts, they usually take around 12 hours to complete. Within that time, you have concentric eyewalls. Typically this occurs whenthe storms surrounding the eye tighten and choke the inner circulation. That was the case earlier, but, for somewhat interesting reasons, a portion of the eye weakened to the south, in effect sort of stopping this "choking" process, BUT also, weakening the eye a bit. This leads to two possible future outcomes, either the eyewall replacement cycle will continue and the storm WILL weaken a bit before landfall, likely at a low end cat 4 strength or in a maximum reduction scenario upper 3...which has been noted by almost every single NHC update...or, the opening will slow down the process, the northern eye will continue to keep itself together and reorganize a tight southern eyewall by landfall, keeping the storm at upper 4 strength. Paradoxically, by having this opening, the storm may actually be stronger than it would otherwise be, if a full replacement cycle were able to occur. In either case, upgrading to cat 5 is highly unlikely. The SFMR winds, do not show continued strengthening, and shear is increasing a bit. This is all offset by stupid warm water temps. That's the story of this year, and it means more storms WILL follow Laura, some likely major. A wave just left Africa today. Hurricanes conceptually exist as a transporter of momentum and heat from the equator (where there is more), to the mid-lats (where there is less). The likely scenario is maintenance of category to landfall. That may disappoint all the carnal folks (see #2) that are wishcasting a cat 5 but that isn't the job of meteorologists. The job is, forecast and accurately describe the weather. Views/dreams/hopes are not relevant to forecasting and delineate the difference between the NWS, and this forum. One thing I do, when I realize I'm looking at a situation with bias in any direction, is I try to first imagine the opposite outcome happening. I want something to go one way, I imagine it does the exact opposite-weather or otherwise. That gets me out of wish mode and into objective mode. I've seen the other side of the coin so I can be more objective. So, folks, imagine for a minute before landfall this downgrades to a high end cat 2. Get out your yay's and oh noes or thank goodnesses or whatever is deep inside of you. Once you do that, come back to looking at the data, and you'll be more objective in figuring this all out. Cheers, Moderately Unstable Non-quick thoughts = more pages than Les Misérables 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: jeff p is such a weiner dont get me wrong, i am going to keep his stream on but he's just embellishing the heck out of these 40mph winds in lake charles rn like...why do that? in an hour you're gonna be getting pants shitting level video... I could do live shots like his current one from here half the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said: jeff p is such a weiner dont get me wrong, i am going to keep his stream on but he's just embellishing the heck out of these 40mph winds in lake charles rn like...why do that? in an hour you're gonna be getting pants shitting level video... He learned from early Cantore, have a guy out of camera shot with a hose flooding your feet and shaking the bushes behind ya lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: the southern eyewall collapsed. 110 mph landfall lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Just now, Jackstraw said: He learned from early Cantore, have a guy out of camera shot with a hose flooding your feet and shaking the bushes behind ya lol And definitely Steve Irwin. they both get the same adrenaline rush from danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Bad time to go play the slots at the casinos in Lake Charles I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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