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The "Double Trouble" Banter Thread


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7 hours ago, SnowLover22 said:

this aged well LMAO

 

Yes, I know.  Laura is doing what Harvey and Michael did.  But at the time of the
above post, doing a nowcast from that was not that unreasonable.  However, the
atmosphere is always throwing curves at you and all us of will be burned some of
time.

This is Laura's first RI, not a system that got strong early in its existence.  
Florence in 2018 was different.  Multiple ERCs well before landfall, so it had
expanded in size with the wind field spread out, and that's one reason why it
didn't intensify near landfall despite going over the Gulf Steam (weakened a
lot in fact).  It's easier to tighten up a TC the first time (no RI prior in its
existence).  Laura had struggled all along and now makes its move at the last min.

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2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Yes, I know.  Laura is doing what Harvey and Michael did.  But at the time of the
above post, doing a nowcast from that was not that unreasonable.  However, the
atmosphere is always throwing curves at you and all us of will be burned some of
time.

This is Laura's first RI, not a system that got strong early in its existence.  
Florence in 2018 was like this (multiple ERCs well before landfall) so it had
expanded in size with the wind field spread out, and that's one reason why it
didn't intensify near landfall despite going over the Gulf Steam (weakened a
lot in fact).  It's easier to tighten up a TC the first time (no RI prior in its
existence).  Laura had struggled all along and now makes its move at the last min.

Its alright. The intensity forecasts are really stochastic. You were spot on until you're not...then you're really wrong. 

And you did seem to be a negative Nancy about the storm and the environment from the get go...almost like it was personal. 

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2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Yes, I know.  Laura is doing what Harvey and Michael did.  But at the time of the
above post, doing a nowcast from that was not that unreasonable.  However, the
atmosphere is always throwing curves at you and all us of will be burned some of
time.

This is Laura's first RI, not a system that got strong early in its existence.  
Florence in 2018 was like this (multiple ERCs well before landfall) so it had
expanded in size with the wind field spread out, and that's one reason why it
didn't intensify near landfall despite going over the Gulf Steam (weakened a
lot in fact).  It's easier to tighten up a TC the first time (no RI prior in its
existence).  Laura had struggled all along and now makes its move at the last min.

Irma was the only ATL one I remember that bombed out twice...or was about to before plowing into Cuba.

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6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Its alright. The intensity forecasts are really stochastic. You were spot on until you're not...then you're really wrong. 

And you did seem to be a negative Nancy about the storm and the environment from the get go...almost like it was personal. 

Not it wasn't personal.  Just calling it as I saw it in the here and now, and looking at the synoptic pattern.  Laura had been struggling it seemed forever, and I didn't see the overall environment changing much today.  Dry air was still present just to its NW and shear was forecast to increase.  But TCs are strange beasts, and small-scale factors can take over since were are dealing with TC inner cores, which are often on the mesoscale, so the synoptic factors can become a non-issue at times.  As everyone knows, intensity forecasting for TCs is probably one of the most challenging aspects of the field.

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11 minutes ago, bcLander said:

Question, what's the science behind this thing turning to the north? How is this thing going to be forced North?

Think about when you wake up in the morning. You’ve got to pee, right? Well, the hurricane wants to go poleward as much as you want to get rid of your pee. Both are just waiting for the relaxation of the barrier to occur before they can do what they naturally want to do. In our case, the high pressure to the north is like the bladder. If it relaxes then Laura comes north. It is doing so. 

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3 minutes ago, bcLander said:

Question, what's the science behind this thing turning to the north? How is this thing going to be forced North?

I'm no met, but I can tell you that hurricanes are primarily steered by high pressure domes and low pressure troughs.  There is a dome of high pressure over the southern Atlantic states and a low pressure over the Rockies.  Laura is pushed westward by the H, but as that weakens (subsides) and slides E'wd Laura turns N and eventually NE.  Hurricanes also curve N'wd and then E'wd as they gain latitude.  Unless I'm wrong.

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15 minutes ago, bcLander said:

Thanks! That helps.

What is the Stadium Effect?

The stadium effect is what it sounds like. The eyewall is tens of thousands of feet tall and circular. Little old you has survived the front side of the storm and stumbled into the sunlight to see what the calm is all about. You look all around you and see the “stadium”

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3 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

The stadium effect is what it sounds like. The eyewall is tens of thousands of feet tall and circular. Little old you has survived the front side of the storm and stumbled into the sunlight to see what the calm is all about. You look all around you and see the “stadium”

The hurricanes stole the idea from the Roman Empire. 

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26 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Little old you has survived the front side of the storm and stumbled into the sunlight to see what the calm is all about. You look all around you and see the “stadium”

Like a person at their first Dead show, survived the first set, the lights come on during the break the they see the "stadium" for the first time with a completely new way of seeing...

Being in the "eye" in more ways than one.

 

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Just now, Prospero said:

Like a person at their first Dead show, survived the first set, the lights come on during the break the they see the "stadium" for the first time with a completely new way of seeing...

Being in the "eye" in more ways than one.

 

Just watch out for the mesovortices, they come on faster and harder than the nitrous mafia. 

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