Windspeed Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Making a single thread to cover semi-related, off-topic and non-meteorological discussions for both Laura and Marco. Both systems are going to influence each other directly and indirectly and I am sure frequent postings will heat up enough to warrant it. Speaking of... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2020 Author Share Posted August 21, 2020 RE: Double Trouble and nasty weather... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Ruh roh 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 So can they break tradition and give both storms female names as a nod to Dee Snider? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 I think the potential for both of these systems to be much ado about nothing has increased markedly in last 24 hours 1) Laura- IF the system had organized and developed stacked vortices, it would have gone north of the islands. It did not and got whipped westward with the trade winds. It, still resembling garbage, has been named but it has guaranteed itself significant land interaction with possibly every major landmass in the Caribbean. This system had potential entirely based on it staying north of the islands and interacting with an upper level snticyclone with potential for optimal outflow and light shear an a few days in the vicinity of the southern Bahamas. Given that did not happen, this system is doa until *possibly* entering the gulf if it can keep somewhat of a circulation it can build off of once it leaves interaction with Cuba. 2) TD 14- this system is a prime example that it takes prior organization to exploit favorable environmental conditions. If this had been an organized TC in its current location, it would be strengthening on approach to the Yucatán, possibly significantly. It, however, is using its time over water just to organize into TC. Unfortunately for the system, it’s time over water will be cut short so the bar for strengthening is lower. After LF in the Yucatán, it will once again depend on the storms structure for how quickly and how much strengthening can occur. Though I believe the models to be overdone on the amount of shear, there will still be considerable SW shear, continental dry air, and possible negative interaction with whatever remains of Laura. This system will not look like a classic cyclone on approach to the gulf coast and interaction with the trough and shear will probably make this a comma system. We’ve seen these Max out as low category hurricanes but that’s it. Simply put, the bar is not high for this one either. Im not ruling out the possibility one or both of these systems reach hurricane status (I think TD 14 has best chance) and a lot can change, but I do not think either storm has a high ceiling given the above factors. Laura’s Achilles heel being lack of organization at present and then land battles and TD 14’s being Yucatán and then a hostile gulf on approach to the US. I don’t see anyway either makes a run at a significant hurricane now and I think most guidance has performed fairly well with keeping these systems in check for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Whatever happened to being patient? Laura is in its infancy and the calendar date is 8-21. YOU PEOPLE really don’t deserve a long tracker. You haven’t proven you can responsibly talk about it. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 32 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Whatever happened to being patient? Laura is in its infancy and the calendar date is 8-21. YOU PEOPLE really don’t deserve a long tracker. You haven’t proven you can responsibly talk about it. but wizard021 said grave danger was coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: but wizard021 said grave danger was coming. He found westerly winds 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said: Whatever happened to being patient? Laura is in its infancy and the calendar date is 8-21. YOU PEOPLE really don’t deserve a long tracker. You haven’t proven you can responsibly talk about it. This ^^^^^ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Reminder that no model shown 2 hurricanes coming ashore. It's one or the other or none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Seems to be trending to weaker 14/Marco and possibly stronger Laura Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 @brentrich. Use this thread from now on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 I feel like I know less than when I started when I read the two main threads right now. God the quality of discussion has gone downhill... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 confine wizard021 and ldub to this thread while you're at it too pls. thx 4 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Very interesting and unusual situation coming up with Marco and Laura. Everything would have to come together just right (or wrong depending on your viewpoint) but we could have 2 land falling hurricanes within 24 hours coming ashore at the same place. It could be a bad situation for New Orleans. If Marco came ashore just SW of the city it would drive water into Lake Pontchartrain. If Marco then turned more west and weakened quickly the water would not drain back into the Gulf. Lots of "ifs" but Laura could follow the same path driving more water into the canal system. This will be fascinating from a meteorological standpoint to see how this all plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 45 minutes ago, hlcater said: confine wizard021 and ldub to this thread while you're at it too pls. thx ilub is on my last nerve too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Frances and Jeanne: "we made landfall in the same spot only three weeks apart!" Laura and Marco: "hold our beer" 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Once Laura starts approaching Hispaniola and the Bahamian Islands. You can use this link for radar loops. You have to scroll down some. https://met.gov.bs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 I wish this was hitting the northeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 This is crazy y'all. And that's all I got to say about that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This is crazy y'all. And that's all I got to say about that. Is it really besides the weirdness of both storms maybe coming in back to back? I am trying to get hyped for it but just can’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I wish this was hitting the northeast Me too. It’d be way more interesting if this were happening to Massachusetts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 The media is gonna be premature in their pants over this. Hopefully it's not as bad as it looks like it might be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Yeah, unless one of those fantastical hurricane model solutions come to fruition, chances are neither of these storms are as damaging as the Iowa Derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 15 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Yeah, unless one of those fantastical hurricane model solutions come to fruition, chances are neither of these storms are as damaging as the Iowa Derecho. Yeah but the Iowa derecho wasn’t as damaging as the Indian Ocean tsunami 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Yeah but the Iowa derecho wasn’t as damaging as the Indian Ocean tsunami Yeah but the Indian Ocean tsunami wasn't as damaging as the Chicxulub asteroid (you know, the one that killed the dinosaurs and 3/4 of the rest of the world's plant and animal life) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Yeah but the Indian Ocean tsunami wasn't as damaging as the Chicxulub asteroid (you know, the one that killed the dinosaurs and 3/4 of the rest of the world's plant and animal life) Great point. Fortunately, Hispaniola will certainly prevent Laura from organizing to the point where it will become as problematic as CXB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Great point. Fortunately, Hispaniola will certainly prevent Laura from organizing to the point where it will become as problematic as CXB I don't know, I've seen some weenies here saying that it could be close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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