Chicago Storm Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Let’s try this again. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 ^ that sure was a short thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 19 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: I don't know if it will be a heatwave like 1953. Looks more tropically influenced including the pacific which might lead up to the WAR and PER connecting. lmao. The upcoming weather will not be even close to 1953 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 19, 2020 Author Share Posted August 19, 2020 who even compared it to 1953.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 34 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Let’s try this again. . Number to beat at ORD for hottest temp of summer is 96. I'd give it roughly 50/50 odds as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 19, 2020 Author Share Posted August 19, 2020 GFS finally caved and now shows the heat wave.The main difference now is that it has much higher DP’s than the Euro, thus less mixing/cooler temps. In this setup that is more of an unrealistic solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 19, 2020 Author Share Posted August 19, 2020 Number to beat at ORD for hottest temp of summer is 96. I'd give it roughly 50/50 odds as of right now.I’ll go over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I’ll go over. . Go 100... you know you want to. If ever there is going to be a shot to tag the century mark this summer, this would be it. Recent dryness (and little/no rain expected in the next several days) and still not so late in the calendar year where climo is really inhospitable. At this point I am comfortable with predicting mid to upper 90s, but not higher than that. Numerically speaking, there is not that much of a difference, but it's crazy how much harder it is to hit 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Number to beat at ORD for hottest temp of summer is 96. I'd give it roughly 50/50 odds as of right now. pound the over, 97-98 max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 19, 2020 Author Share Posted August 19, 2020 Should add that with this period, this summer will break the record for warmest summer on record in Chicago...and it very well may blown out, if things pan out. Plan on starting the process of pulling some stats on things tonight. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 looks warm except for Milwaukee and Dayton. Will struggle to break 90 in those cities 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 20, 2020 Author Share Posted August 20, 2020 looks warm except for Milwaukee and Dayton. Will struggle to break 90 in those citiesyea, shout out to spartman...thanks for this heat wave.. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Wow...i just realized how much warmer Chicago was than Detroit this summer. June ORD 74.0F (avg 69.0) DTW 71.1F (avg 69.4) July ORD 79.2F (avg 74.0) DTW 77.4F (avg 73.6) August thru 8/18 ORD 75.2F (avg 73.2 to date) DTW 73.1F (avg 72.6 to date) 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 i'm ok and fine with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Not going to be any noteworthy heat around here but upper 80s and muggy in late August gets old fast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 LOT afd As the models have continued to slow the front, they have also trended toward the front just sagging into the cwa late Sunday and Sunday night, before washing out and lifting back north of the area on Monday (or Monday night in the GEM). Guidance continues to depict the western CONUS upper ridge developing eastward into early next week, with rising heights into the mid-Mississippi Valley, with persistent southwest low level flow and resulting low level thermal ridge developing into the upper Midwest. Progged H8 temps warm to +18-20C Monday, and to +20C and warmer Tuesday- Wednesday, with H9 temps from the ECMWF and GEM approaching +30C. If this were to verify, it would likely produce surface temps well into the 90s during the first half of next week, possibly upper 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday. ECMWF appears to continue to have the best handle on likely surface dew point temps (lower than likely over-done GFS/GEM values), supporting leaning toward warmer/drier forecast at this distance. Have nudged NBM temps up to low 90s for these days as these heat events are often tricky for everything to come together, but may need to trend higher with some significant heat in store if current model scenario plays out. Ratzer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Cannot wait for the heat waves to be in the rearview mirror personally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Since Chicago's official observation site moved to O'Hare in 1980, there have been 5 instances of high temps of 96 or greater after August 20. 9/1/1984: 96 9/7/1985: 99 9/6/1990: 96 8/27/2013: 96 8/30/2013: 96 fwiw, the last time Chicago hit 100 after August 20 was on 9/7/1960. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 There's nothing like 92 on October 2nd. You want summer to leave a bad taste in your mouth? That's how. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 21, 2020 Author Share Posted August 21, 2020 EPS has a mean high temp at ORD of 96 and 97 for Tue and Wed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 21, 2020 Author Share Posted August 21, 2020 Still several days out, and we’ve seen medium range heat fade this summer before, but...Records could be in play, with 95 Tue and 97 Wed records that could be within reach for ORD.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Wildfire smoke gonna play any role? Quite a large shield out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Wildfire smoke gonna play any role? Quite a large shield out west. https://twitter.com/NWSDesMoines/status/1296609401999040512?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 21, 2020 Author Share Posted August 21, 2020 Euro continues to show 925mb temps of 30-32C across portions of the area Tue-Thur next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Euro continues to show 925mb temps of 30-32C across portions of the area Tue-Thur next week. . Right at the threshold for putting triple digits in play... IF it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Looking like a very solid late summer heat wave. Will be ready for fall after it happens though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 17 hours ago, Gino27 said: There's nothing like 92 on October 2nd. You want summer to leave a bad taste in your mouth? That's how. I agree....and ill bet money that won't happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 22, 2020 Author Share Posted August 22, 2020 Right at the threshold for putting triple digits in play... IF it verifies.Easily would top 100 with those thermals.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Easily would top 100 with those thermals. . I'd feel pretty good about it in the metro area if those temps aloft pan out... especially with the recent dryness and more dry days coming. Would probably be more questionable in outlying/rural areas. But I have a bad feeling that ORD is going to max at 98 or 99. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 22, 2020 Author Share Posted August 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'd feel pretty good about it in the metro area if those temps aloft pan out... especially with the recent dryness and more dry days coming. Would probably be more questionable in outlying/rural areas. But I have a bad feeling that ORD is going to max at 98 or 99. Lol I went back and looked at re-analysis on several 100+ days since the late 1950's... Common theme is the thermals at 925/850mb on the Euro meet or exceed all of the 100+ days that I checked, minus 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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