yoda Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 All hurricane warnings and watches cancelled... storm surge watch cancelled on 5am advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR MARCO BUT DANGEROUS STORM SURGE STILL ANTICIPATED... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 88.2W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watches west of Intracoastal City Louisiana and from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border have been discontinued. All Storm Surge Watches have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for.... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 88.2 West. Marco is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). Marco is forecast to approach the coast of Louisiana this afternoon, and then turn westward and move very close to the coast of Louisiana through Tuesday night. Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to become a tropical depression late on Tuesday and dissipate on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Marco is clearly weakening tonight. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission showed that flight-level and SFMR had decreased along with a substantial rise in central pressure. In addition, GOES-16 1-min satellite data show the surface center well displaced from the deep convection, and it appears that Marco is decoupling from its mid-level circulation to the northeast. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, and that could be generous. Some large changes have been required on this forecast. Considering the shear is only forecast to increase, there is no significant chance that Marco re-intensifies to a hurricane, and the hurricane warnings have been replaced with tropical storm warnings. Furthermore, now that the storm is losing vertical coherence, the intensity forecast has been decreased as well, and is fairly consistent with the model consensus and almost every model. Marco has turned northwestward this morning at about 9 kt. The storm should gradually turn westward as it approaches southeastern Louisiana due to the shallower cyclone feeling the low-level ridge. Marco will likely dissipate in a couple of days near the Texas/Louisiana border due to continued strong shear. Guidance has come into better agreement on the track going slightly inland or just brushing the Louisiana coast, and the track has been nudged southward on this advisory. It should be noted that the heaviest rain and strongest winds will likely be northeast of the center, so users should not focus on the exact track of the cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning later today. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 27.6N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 28.6N 89.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 29.2N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/1800Z 29.5N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 26/0600Z 29.4N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Nice near term disco by MOB for my area this morning! NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...As of this morning, the Tropical Storm Watch was cancelled for Mobile and Baldwin Counties in Alabama as well as George and Stone counties in southeast Mississippi. However, windy conditions will be possible today. Thus, a Wind Advisory was issued through 7PM CDT this evening for coastal Mobile and coastal Baldwin counties (mainly along the immediate coast) for easterly winds 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. /26 The main point is that the next 48 hours or so will be rather wet. Marco is currently in a world of absolute hurt as 30 knots of southwesterly shear from the upper trough over the ARKLATEX region has begun to decouple the low level circulation from the mid-level circulation. However as long as there is deep convection associated with the mid-level circulation, the low-level circulation will continue to attempt to move with the mid-level circulation causing the track to potentially shift a little more east than originally expected and the NHC`s latest track reflects that (about 20 mile eastward shift given the storms position). This really won`t have much of an impact on us as the shear will only increase with time and the low-levels will eventually decouple causing the low-level center to track westward and the mid-level center to continue moving north towards our area. Imagine the head of the storm going one way and the legs going the opposite direction. Since the mid-level circulation is expected to move across the area, a plume of 2 to 2.5 inches PWATs will overspread the area tonight into Monday. Typically with these highly sheared systems most of the rainfall ends up being well to the east from the actual center and in this situation thats us. Scattered to numerous storms will be expected as lift associated with that Mid-level center increases over the area beginning along the coast later tonight then slowly spreading inland throughout the day. So all in all rain chances will continue to stay high at least through Monday night and likely into Tuesday especially over southwestern Alabama and southeastern Mississippi. The main threat with these storms will be locally heavy rainfall given PWATS of 2.5 leading to likely efficient warm rain processes and rainfall rates likely approaching 2 to 3 inches per hour in the heaviest bands. Locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches will be possible along the coast with some locations getting locally higher amounts. For instance areas in Tallahassee`s area saw in excess of 7 inches today where a band setup for a couple of hours. These higher amounts will be based on where any banding sets up. Due to this, the flash flood watch will continue for coastal Alabama, southeast Mississippi, and far western Florida Panhandle. Along with the rain threat, an isolated tornado threat will be possible, given we are on the eastern side which typically supports the higher tornado threat. Luckily we will be removed from the low-level center and the better backed surface winds will be displaced to our west. I cannot rule out a tornado or two, especially during the late afternoon hours tomorrow into early tomorrow night. Winds will be gusty as well as storms mix down higher winds associated with the mid-level center. Some showers could have gusts to 30 to 40 mph. Luckily with all the rain, temperatures will be on the light side and will struggle to reach the low 80s. Lows will remain high though given the increased low level moisture throughout the period. Rip current risk will remain HIGH for quite some time and we had reports of 26 beach rescues yesterday at Pensacola beach alone. The water is not safe and a high surf advisory will also continue through the period. BB/03 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Nice near term disco by MOB for my area this morning!NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...As of this morning, theTropical Storm Watch was cancelled for Mobile and BaldwinCounties in Alabama as well as George and Stone counties insoutheast Mississippi. However, windy conditions will be possibletoday. Thus, a Wind Advisory was issued through 7PM CDT thisevening for coastal Mobile and coastal Baldwin counties (mainlyalong the immediate coast) for easterly winds 15-25 mph with gustsup to 35 mph. /26The main point is that the next 48 hours or so will be ratherwet. Marco is currently in a world of absolute hurt as 30 knots ofsouthwesterly shear from the upper trough over the ARKLATEXregion has begun to decouple the low level circulation from themid-level circulation. However as long as there is deep convectionassociated with the mid-level circulation, the low-levelcirculation will continue to attempt to move with the mid-levelcirculation causing the track to potentially shift a little moreeast than originally expected and the NHC`s latest track reflectsthat (about 20 mile eastward shift given the storms position).This really won`t have much of an impact on us as the shear willonly increase with time and the low-levels will eventuallydecouple causing the low-level center to track westward and themid-level center to continue moving north towards our area.Imagine the head of the storm going one way and the legs going theopposite direction. Since the mid-level circulation is expectedto move across the area, a plume of 2 to 2.5 inches PWATs willoverspread the area tonight into Monday. Typically with thesehighly sheared systems most of the rainfall ends up being well tothe east from the actual center and in this situation thats us.Scattered to numerous storms will be expected as lift associatedwith that Mid-level center increases over the area beginning alongthe coast later tonight then slowly spreading inland throughoutthe day. So all in all rain chances will continue to stay high atleast through Monday night and likely into Tuesday especially oversouthwestern Alabama and southeastern Mississippi.The main threat with these storms will be locally heavy rainfallgiven PWATS of 2.5 leading to likely efficient warm rain processesand rainfall rates likely approaching 2 to 3 inches per hour inthe heaviest bands. Locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches willbe possible along the coast with some locations getting locallyhigher amounts. For instance areas in Tallahassee`s area saw inexcess of 7 inches today where a band setup for a couple of hours.These higher amounts will be based on where any banding sets up.Due to this, the flash flood watch will continue for coastalAlabama, southeast Mississippi, and far western Florida Panhandle.Along with the rain threat, an isolated tornado threat will bepossible, given we are on the eastern side which typicallysupports the higher tornado threat. Luckily we will be removedfrom the low-level center and the better backed surface winds willbe displaced to our west. I cannot rule out a tornado or two,especially during the late afternoon hours tomorrow into earlytomorrow night. Winds will be gusty as well as storms mix downhigher winds associated with the mid-level center. Some showerscould have gusts to 30 to 40 mph.Luckily with all the rain, temperatures will be on the light sideand will struggle to reach the low 80s. Lows will remain highthough given the increased low level moisture throughout theperiod. Rip current risk will remain HIGH for quite some time andwe had reports of 26 beach rescues yesterday at Pensacola beachalone. The water is not safe and a high surf advisory will alsocontinue through the period. BB/03I can only image the met writing that with a Chesire grin on his faceSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 I realize that Laura is the hot topic but we are getting lashed with bands of tropical rain. 4” in the last 12 hours with more to come. Not much wind but it obviously mixes down when the rain gets heavy. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 @NavarreDon, Imagine.. Your now, (ground(s)) are extremely saturated, and then.... Having a hurricane ,, Or a very strong TS,,, landfall.. LOTSA trees/power poles.. (ad-Infinium) etc are going to come down! You have a Generator right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Naked swirl churning towards the coast to lash Louisiana... Kinda funny seeing all these sites acting like Marco is still some formidable tropical storm or hurricane when it's practically been decapitated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 @NavarreDon, Imagine.. Your now, (ground(s)) are extremely saturated, and then.... Having a hurricane ,, Or a very strong TS,,, landfall.. LOTSA trees/power poles.. (ad-Infinium) etc are going to come down! You have a Generator right? The ground is completely saturated. It wouldn’t take much to bring some trees down as we are closing in on 6”. We are fairly well prepped for weather including an evacuation plan. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: We have landfall More impactful for Florida than Louisiana. How is it even a TS winds are in the 20s, what a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 The Skyway Bridge fishing pier on Tampa Bay had a 41 mph gust today during a passing line of thunderstorms that may be remotely related to Marco. Looking at other wind reports, I don't see anything near that close to Marco in the northern GOM. We had a 36 mph gust here in Gulfport, Florida and 38 mph gust on Clearwater Beach during the same band of storms. That is really not uncommon during the thunderstorm season here. But I do think Marco was moving the storm flow across Florida from a distance, even though I may be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 To close the topic, NHC has issued their final advisory on Marco: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/al14/al142020.discus.021.shtml? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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