wxeyeNH Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: The really nice convective burst and westward expansion earlier might be beginning to wane. Still very strong SSW flow undercutting the MLC. Pulsing waxing and waning upshear might be the order of the day. Since you posted an hour ago another burst of convection has started. So the waxing and waning as modeled seems to be happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Little Marco eye: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: Since you posted an hour ago another burst of convection has started. So the waxing and waning as modeled seems to be happening Levi talked about this, how it's expected to pulse as the convection fights the shear and then dies off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 As of the 5:00 PM update, in Gulfport, Florida (Tampa Bay area), we are 287 miles from Marco and have enjoyed a stiff breeze all day, winds from the SE at 10 to 20 steady with gusts just over 30. Some rain and thunderstorm are passing by on the Gulf, it's raining right now in fact. I would imagine we can't call these "bands", but Marco's presence is felt already here. Not expecting much more, but the breeze is nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 The 18z gfs, nam just makes Marco totally disappear. Granted the wind shear is there. But as the center moves in a westerly direction so does the trough at 250. It retreats as the HP moves west too. I just don't see Marco basically completely vanishing within the next 24-36 hours. Hard to imagine a cat1 hurricane to remnant low with in 24-36 hours over ocean water that is particularly 90 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Levi talked about this, how it's expected to pulse as the convection fights the shear and then dies off Doubt it, it stay weak Cat 1 hurricane in next 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Marco looks abysmal on satellite right now. I think dry air is taking it's toll. Could also be getting back into stronger shear. I did notice though that models are almost stalling Marco near the LA coast and then slowing drift it west or possibly wsw. This could be due to a weaker storm not tapping into steering currents higher up. Almost gets stuck between the two ridges. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Marco isn't a hurricane anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Watching the latest convection fire up. Not holding my breath. What a roller coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Looks like some towers firing around the center. Just got home and seeing some reports (TWC & Josh) saying there is a more N component to Marco. Any thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 It's struggling. A new convective mass is going up but it looks like the core got tilted and succumbed to dry air in the mid-levels earlier due to the persistent ongoing SSW mid-level flow. Is Marco is still a hurricane? Debatable. Probably still close. Need recon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: It's struggling. A new convective mass is going up but it looks like the core got tilted and succumbed to dry air in the mid-levels earlier due to the persistent ongoing SSW mid-level flow. Is Marco is still a hurricane? Debatable. Probably still close. Need recon. At this point in time. He has been captured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Don’t know much about weather but this thing looks done. It’s going NE somehow and getting ripped apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: Don’t know much about weather but this thing looks done. It’s going NE somehow and getting ripped apart. The low level center will get exposed and the rain/convection will fly off to the north. The center will slowly move wnw and weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Just now, wncsnow said: The low level center will get exposed and the rain/convection will fly off to the north. The center will slowly move wnw and weaken. It actually has a strong convective burst right now. Sheared yes, ripped apart no. It is incredible how the track has shifted from Texas all the way to eastern Louisiana, and even now at the last minute it is actually going east of north, and the track may have to be adjusted yet again. Maybe into AL/MS/the western panhandle of Florida? https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/MARCO_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind Basically looks like deep convection got caught in upper level jet, and as long as it stays coupled it won't be going west at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 It’s been raining heavily all day from Port St Joe East thru Apalachicola. Here’s EVX totals.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 NHC may have to downgrade based on that last pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: NHC may have to downgrade based on that last pass. Oof, I'd be willing to bet the decoupling is well underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Yeah, looks like maybe the speedmax on the east side of that trough is a little farther east and taking a little longer to lift NE cutting Marco at his 500mb knees. We could be looking at a chugga chugga choo choo 50KT swirl moving NW by morning. Or not, stranger things have happened lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Naked swirl incoming. Good thing because Laura is gonna hurt somebody on the gulf coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joseph Torre Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Marco is pretty much going to be a non issue for the Gulf of Mexico at this point. Shear, which was well forecasted, is tearing it to pieces, and it's beginning to decouple. All the signs were pointing towards that, yet NHC went ahead with a hurricane landfalling along LA coast and still has hurricane warnings in effect, when at this point, tropical storm force gusts will be the max 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 TS at 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MARCO HAS WEAKENED... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 87.6W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch from Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City has been canceled. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for.... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana * Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans * Cameron to west of Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 87.6 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A continued north-northwestward motion is possible tonight, but a turn toward the northwest is expected by Monday morning. Marco is forecast to approach the coast of Louisiana by Monday afternoon, and then turn westward and move near or over the coast through Tuesday. Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours, but Marco is forecast to weaken rapidly by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joseph Torre Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, yoda said: TS at 11 Not surprised. Main impacts will be heavy rain and little wind from this system. Will probably make landfall tomorrow afternoon in MS as a weak tropical storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Marco is feeling the effect of strong southwesterly shear. The center, as identified by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, is displaced to the southwest edge of the convective canopy. That said, Marco has not quite fully decoupled yet and has moved well right of the previous forecast. Data from the plane indicates that Marco has weakened; the highest flight-level winds were only 58 kt with unflagged SFMR winds just above 50 kt. Marco's intensity has been lowered slightly to 60 kt, but this is probably generous. The intensity guidance remains maddeningly inconsistent. The most recent runs of the HWRF and HMON show that there is still a chance that Marco could reach the Gulf Coast as a hurricane, despite the shear. While this seems unlikely given the current structure of the cyclone, it also seems slightly premature to rule it out entirely. After all, the shear lessened enough to allow Marco to briefly strengthen after it was strongly sheared for a time last night. The rest of the guidance shows Marco weakening further as it approaches the coast, and this seems like a more likely solution. The NHC forecast just holds Marco at 60 kt for the next 24 h, but its certainly possible it could already be weaker than that. Rapid weakening is likely by 36 h if it hasn't happened sooner and Marco is forecast to become a remnant low by early Wednesday. Marco's track is tied entirely to its intensity and structure. Once Marco becomes fully decoupled it will slow and turn westward. It is not out of the question that this could happen before Marco reaches the coast and the system never makes landfall. However, as long as the strong southwesterly upper-level flow contributes to the steering, Marco will continue to move more northward to north-northwestward. Due to the recent northward movement of Marco's center, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but it is blended to the previous forecast by about 36 h and onward. Confidence in this forecast unfortunately remains low since the model spread remains usually high. It is worth noting that Marco is a small tropical cyclone. The large area of Tropical Storm and Hurricane watches and warnings along the northern Gulf Coast is a reflection of the unusually high uncertainty in the forecast, and it is unlikely that all of those regions will experience tropical-storm-force winds or life-threatening storm surge associated with Marco. However, impacts will likely occur in some portions of the watch/warning area beginning on Monday, and heavy rain is likely across most of the region during the next couple of days. Changes to the watches and warnings are likely on Monday and users should consult products from their local weather forecast office for more information about potential hazards in their area. Key Messages: 1. Strong winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 26.8N 87.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 28.0N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 29.0N 90.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 29.6N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 26/0000Z 29.8N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/1200Z 29.7N 94.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 Wow, the NHC is talking about how Marco may dissipate without ever making "landfall". Crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Radar suggests Marco is on track to hit Florida. NHC is convinced convection will die down and it will decouple, but it is absolutely racing towards the coast, and I think it's possible it'll make landfall in the panhandle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 37 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: Radar suggests Marco is on track to hit Florida. NHC is convinced convection will die down and it will decouple, but it is absolutely racing towards the coast, and I think it's possible it'll make landfall in the panhandle. I was thinking the same thing. I was watching the long-range Tallahassee radar and I swear I saw the center racing towards the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Think there's still an elongated LLC moving up towards LA, can kinda see it on shortwave IR, but it sure looks like the mid level vort got scooped and is taking off NNE. Could let that ridge to the east build in faster. There seems to be some pretty deep easterly flow south of Marco back down around the Yucatan. Weak strugglers gotta love 'em, or hate 'em if you're at the NHC. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater_band.php?stormid=AL142020&band=07&length=12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Yeah, Marco is decapitated. That's the mid-level vort racing towards FL. I wouldn't be shocked if this is written off by the 11am advisory at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now