CheeselandSkies Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Is it a case of too much of a good thing for these storms? All this talk about how the MJO phase would bring vertical motion favorable for convection to the Atlantic; is too much convection going up and preventing them from consolidating around one center for long? A bit like when too many storms go up and prevent each other from becoming long-track, cyclic tornadic supercells? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Is it a case of too much of a good thing for these storms? All this talk about how the MJO phase would bring vertical motion favorable for convection to the Atlantic; is too much convection going up and preventing them from consolidating around one center for long? A bit like when too many storms go up and prevent each other from becoming long-track, cyclic tornadic supercells? JB says it isnt in a favorable state except for very in close development like ike and hanna did just before landfall. He says we are in phase 8/1 but the favorable phases are coming. 2 days ago but still in the same phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Is it a case of too much of a good thing for these storms? All this talk about how the MJO phase would bring vertical motion favorable for convection to the Atlantic; is too much convection going up and preventing them from consolidating around one center for long? A bit like when too many storms go up and prevent each other from becoming long-track, cyclic tornadic supercells? This is what I have been hypothesizing. Conditions are *so* favorable, somehow it has the reverse effect? All global oscillations and patterns vary in magnitude and interact in many ways. Who's to say there can not be a combination where "too much of a good thing" occurs? Some unexpected side-effect of the record or near record large-scale indicators that the Atlantic has had early on stating it should be very favorable for TC activity? Yes, we got a lot of NS so far, but where is the quality (intensity)? The SAL has been rather strong this year, and it is still evident in the MDR (it wiped out completely the most recent AEW that looked impressive when first coming off land). Typically the SAL wanes by mid-August. What if it continues another few weeks? That may seriously impact TC potential in the MDR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: JB says it isnt in a favorable state except for very in close development like ike and hanna did just before landfall. He says we are in phase 8/1 but the favorable phases are coming. 2 days ago but still in the same phase. When is the last time JB was right about anything? I listen to him like I listen to the old farmer's almanac. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Recon now reporting an eyewall, open to the SW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 I'm not sure this recon data is exactly the same data as the Vortex data message posted above-- this looks like it has some 64 kt + winds aloft. TS Marco looks like the Orion Nebula with this current burst of convection 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 I don;t know if it's the prolonged lack/reduction of aircraft data across the CONUS or for that matter across the Atlantic, but the models have been off the past 4 or 5 months more than usual, especially forecasting upper level features, which usually the globals have a general agreement inside 120 hours. I know up where I'm at they've been s#%t outside 48 hours. I think someone whose across the pond posted in one of the threads they've been crap over there also. I posted Thursday that the next 7 days were going to be a challenge simply because what the models were spitting out I've never seen. Also none of them were consistent with upper CONUS features earlier in the week, not even focusing on the potential storms themselves at the time. Just habit from when I lived in the Clearwater area for 11 years and whenever I saw models pushing something into the GOM the first thing I looked at was what the forecast was over the CONUS. I do like tracking weaker storms because I think there's a lot to be learned there. I've seen storms do crazy things in 30 years so no matter how good the models have gotten anything they spit out comes with some suspicion, but this year has been kinda nuts. Maybe its like Vortex95 said, too much of a good thing lol. I know one thing, when the CMC is running a tight race over time on verification scores with the big boy's somethings up. Edit: Sorry thought I was in the 2020 Hurricane season thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 46 minutes ago, wizard021 said: Its quickly intensifing . There are quickly spinning hot towers indicating an eye is developing on ir. Symmetrical cdo and small size. Please stop. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, wizard021 said: I said 985 I was close. But hey what do I know . 1 hour ago, wizard021 said: Quickly intensifying now looks to me. 44 minutes ago, wizard021 said: Please tell me not to be rude what I am missing. How do you not have a weenie tag? anyway, dropsonde measured 999 MB with a 64 knot splashdown wind. Probably enough to upgrade to 65 knot cane with pressure is the low 990s. (1 MB reduction per 10 knots). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Last VDM had the eye down to 4nm but still open to the SW We'll see how long Marco can hold up against the shear and dry air to it's west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 1 hour ago, wizard021 said: I said 985 I was close. But hey what do I know . This is your last warning. Keep your posts in banter before you find yourself on the outside looking in 11 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Pressure up a bit on the latest pass with winds in the 55-60 knot range. Would be nice to get a decent NE quad pass to see if this is actually a hurricane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 VDM has 994mb with no eye available. This is why its not appropriate to run around saying this is rapidly intensifying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Marco is definitely going to struggle. Good slab of dry air to it's nw and the shear which is backing off a bit however will ramp up again as it approaches shore. These small tropical systems are so temperamental. They can easily rapidly intensify but also equally rapidly weaken. I think we may see it hit minimal hurricane status like NHC is forecasting. Some hot towers attempting but nothing has been sustained too long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Marco's problem remains mid-to-upper level SSW flow along forecast track. Plenty of stable Theta-E that will continuously be advecting into Marco's small vortex. It may not be powerful enough to decapitate the MLC from the LLC. Marco may be able to temporarily battle with reoccurring mesos that rotate upshear around the main circulation. But the flow is strong enough to keep Marco's intensity in check and prevent convective expansion around the western CDO. This is not terribly unlike Nate in 2017. Though Nate had a larger circulation to tap heat flux. Marco might gain hurricane intensity briefly depending on when recon is in there to find supportive obs. But I'd imagine it will struggle at borderline upper TS/Cat 1 intensity all the way into landfall. Levi Cowan had a great explanation of Marco's struggle within this environment in his video last night. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Marco's problem remains mid-to-upper level SSW flow along forecast track. Plenty of stable Theta-E that will continuously be advecting into Marco's small vortex. It may not be powerful enough to decapitate the MLC from the LLC. Marco may be able to temporarily battle with reoccurring mesos that rotate upshear around the main circulation. But the flow is strong enough to keep Marco's intensity in check and prevent convective expansion around the western CDO. This is not terribly unlike Nate in 2017. Though Nate had a larger circulation to tap heat flux. Marco might gain hurricane intensity briefly depending on when recon is in there to find supportive obs. But I'd imagine it will struggle at borderline upper TS/Cat 1 intensity all the way into landfall. Levi Cowan had a great explanation of Marco's struggle within this environment in his video last night. Couldn't have said it better myself. Excellent analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=uv200 the wind direction at 200 is southerly and in the same dir the storm is moving . This shows shear is in a favorable direction . The only detriment is speed shear . Cat 1 into Louisiana is a solid forecast. I expect continued up and downs in intensity as recon has showed so far. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 1 hour ago, wizard021 said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=uv200 the wind direction at 200 is southerly and in the same dir the storm is moving . This shows shear is in a favorable direction . The only detriment is speed shear . Cat 1 into Louisiana is a solid forecast. I expect continued up and downs in intensity as recon has showed so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think recon has found enough to declare this a hurricane. Unflagged hurricane force SFMR and FL winds. Marco is looking rather frisky on satellite too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said: Marco is looking rather frisky on satellite too. Nice expansion of the CDO over the past hour and a warm spot (psbl eye) in the middle. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Not sure if its the small size or the bathwater under it (or both) but I have never seen a tropical storm fight off fairly stout shear with contentious strong convection in the center as well as Marco has thus far. I have been waiting for the convection to die for over 24 hours near the center, but it just keeps firing. The shear is going to start waning as Marco moves north too. I would keep a steady eye on it if I was in southern LA and New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 This is a hurricane per the latest VDM. We’ll see if that’s enough for the NHC. Tiny 4 NM wide eye. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 15:50Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301 Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2020 Storm Name: Marco (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 8 Observation Number: 24 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. ) A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 15:16:00Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.84N 87.38W B. Center Fix Location: 352 statute miles (567 km) to the W (273°) from Key West, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,372m (4,501ft) at 850mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.39 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 290° at 27kts (From the WNW at 31mph) F. Eye Character: Open in the east G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 4 nautical miles H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 64kts (73.6mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles to the SW (227°) of center fix at 15:15:00Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 315° at 56kts (From the NW at 64.4mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 1 nautical miles to the SW (222°) of center fix at 15:15:30Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 69kts (79.4mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix at 15:22:30Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 181° at 70kts (From the S at 80.6mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix at 15:22:30Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,494m (4,902ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,425m (4,675ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 850mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (100°) from the flight level center at 15:22:30Z If they deem it a cane wouldn’t they do a special update before then?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 27 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Nice expansion of the CDO over the past hour and a warm spot (psbl eye) in the middle. That blow up of convection very impressive of WV too. Environmental conditions seems to be improving on his western side. The dry air is eroding away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Marco is now a hurricane. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Upgrade to cat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 11:30 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 Location: 25.0°N 87.4°W Moving: NNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 992 mb Max sustained: 75 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 You can tell that shear must have temporarily backed off because the CDO just exploded to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 [mention=442]Floydbuster[/mention] You slacker! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 The really nice convective burst and westward expansion earlier might be beginning to wane. Still very strong SSW flow undercutting the MLC. Pulsing waxing and waning upshear might be the order of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now