Orangeburgwx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Wonder what that closed vort they found was... MLC?Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Recon not finding any impressive pressure readings so far. Still might be an open wave at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Where NHC says the center is the plane found nothing even close to a circulation. I think maybe they jumped the gun in calling it a TD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 81.0W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla and for the Bay Islands. The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras * Bay Islands of Honduras * Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Additional watches or warnings, including for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, may be required later this evening or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 81.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Friday, with a general northwest motion continuing through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or over extreme northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system found an area of lighter winds--likely where the center would be--farther south than previous estimates. The highest flight-level wind measured by the aircraft was 30 kt at an altitude of 2500 feet, and although there were some SFMR measurements over 40 kt, these looked coincident with some heavy rain rates and thus are probably not reliable. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Structurally, the depression has a large cloud envelope with sporadic convective cells located in loose bands. The updated initial position derived from the aircraft data indicates that the current motion is still westward, or 270/16 kt. This southward adjustment really only affected the first 36 hours or so of the forecast, with NHC's official track forecast being shifted southward during that period. This ends up taking the cyclone's center over extreme northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras in 12-24 hours. After 36 hours, model guidance remains in good agreement that the system should turn northwestward due to a deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The new set of model guidance has not shifted much from the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is very close to the morning forecast despite the initial position adjustment, with perhaps a slight eastward shift on days 4 and 5. In general, the NHC forecast is closest to the GFS and HCCA model solutions. The depression's farther-south position makes the intensity forecast more complicated with potentially more land interaction with parts of Central America. Slight strengthening to tropical storm strength is expected before the center reaches Honduras and Nicaragua, with little change thereafter until the center re-emerges over the Gulf of Honduras. Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures should then support further intensification up until it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Since there is significant uncertainty in how land interaction will affect the cyclone's intensity, the forecast intensity has been flat-lined between day 2 and day 4, with the understanding that the the winds could increase or decrease from the value shown. Vertical shear is expected to increase by day 5, and some weakening is shown at that time. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, beginning tonight through Friday. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday, and watches could be required for a portion of that area tonight. 2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 14.3N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 14.7N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 15.6N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0600Z 17.0N 85.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 22/1800Z 18.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 20.3N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1800Z 22.1N 89.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 24/1800Z 26.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 28.5N 93.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Kane Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Naztac reads 12zs pressure dropping, very interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 All the stronger solutions track further northeast. Although recon found the center pretty far south, it is broad and weak enough that it can still reform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 18z euro weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 ...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 82.2W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM ESE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Herrero northward to Cancun, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras * Bay Islands of Honduras * Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 82.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through Friday morning. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Friday afternoon and continuing through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just offshore the coasts of northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning area later tonight and early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area during the day on Friday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 The overall convective pattern has improved somewhat since the previous advisory, with a band of deep convection having developed near and just south of the low-level center. A pronounced mid-level circulation has been rotating westward to the north of the center of the broader low-level circulation, which has likely prevented the cyclone from becoming a tropical storm by now, especially given the very impressive outflow pattern. However, NOAA buoy 42057 to the north of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 29 kt at 4 meters elevation, which equals about a 32-kt 10-meter wind speed, which means that the cyclone isn't far from becoming a tropical storm. The intensity is being maintained at 30 kt until convection becomes more persistent. The center has been reforming a little farther north and has also slowed down, with the initial motion now being west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. The slower and farther north initial position has required a slight northward shift in the forecast track for the next 24 hours and, as a result, the center of the cyclone is no longer expected to make landfall very far inland over Honduras or Nicaragua, if it makes landfall at all. By 36 hours, the new NHC forecast track shifts back closer to the previous advisory track due to a strong mid-level ridge extending westward across Florida and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. That feature is expected to keep the cyclone moving in a general northwestward direction on days 2-5, resulting in landfall over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and be approaching the northwestern Gulf coast by the middle of next week. The official forecast track lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope, close to the middle of the simple consensus models and a little south of the NOAA-HCCA corrected model. Due to the northward shift in the new forecast track, the center and inner-core wind field of the cyclone will not be disrupted as much as previously expected, which has significant implications in the intensity forecast. The depression is now expected to reach hurricane strength just before it makes landfall on the east side of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. Weakening is forecast in 60 hours while the cyclone moves across northeastern Yucatan, followed by gradual re-strengthening thereafter. Ocean temperatures along the path of the cyclone are forecast to be 30.0-30.5 deg C and the vertical shear is expected to remain low at less than 10 kt through 96 hours. Those conditions coupled with the impressive outflow pattern should allow for at least typical strengthening. By 120 hours, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models show the vertical wind shear increasing sharply from the southwest to 20-25 kt, which would normally induce weakening. However, it appears that those models are incorporating some strong jetstream winds of 60-70 kt well to the northwest of the center of the cyclone, which has resulted in high bias in the shear output. Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Texas coast in 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to but a little higher then the previous advisory due to less land interaction than previously expected, and is is a blend of the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models, which are at the upper-end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, beginning tonight through Friday. The system is expected be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday where a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect. 2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 14.9N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 15.5N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 18.2N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 19.8N 87.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 21.4N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 25/0000Z 26.7N 92.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 29.1N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Very interesting discussion. Both tracks have hurricanes poised to make landfall around the same time. Just incredible to see. If those tracks verified, you might see a Fujiwara or the outflow from the larger storm might completely shear the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 If those tracks verified, you might see a Fujiwara or the outflow from the larger storm might completely shear the other.Yeah this is going to get interesting. I can see TD14 getting named first and may even pull off some faster intensification prior to landfall or interaction with the Yucatan. However, it may get sheared heavily in the GOM depending on interaction between upper trough and southerly flow on the western periphery of the large anti-cyclone positioned over the Bahamas in a few days. The exciting thing about this setup is the great amount of uncertainty even among the best tropical meteorologists. Everyone is in wait and see mode. TD13 may still reform a vortex and go bonkers if positioned just north of the GA. Then again it may do nothing and leave TD14 to go at it alone in the GOM. Then there is the public aspect of trying to make a forecast that creates awareness and yet leaves the possibility that one or both systems may not pan out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Less land interaction seems like it could be a big deal to me.. I know it’s very early but with Laura looking to be fairly significantly further south than previously thought and TD 14 now looking further NE than previously thought, any ideas how this may impact them If they land up even closer together than we thought they could in the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It is too early but that could cause one to shear another and a slower track as they interact? Not sure at this point. That’s what I figured but definitely an interesting thing to think about. If it did slow the storms down especially TD 14 it may land up interacting less with the trough to the north as it moves deeper into the Gulf thus creating less shear for it but either way it’s unique situation for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 TD14's low-level vortex is fully exposed right now but very clearly defined on visible. If convection can go up over it this afternoon than strengthening will be in order and this can get named. However, if land-induced convection becomes dominate, there is the possibility of CS collapses and outflow boundaries adversely affecting it. We'll have to see how this evolves, but it definitely still needs work before I would expect Marco in the short-term. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 211456 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into the depression a few hours ago, and the plane made two center fixes that were about 35 n mi apart, indicating that there are likely multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common center. A well-defined swirl coincident with the second center fix has become apparent in visible satellite imagery, but for now a blend of the aircraft fixes is being used for the initial position until we can be sure the satellite feature is in fact the one and only center. Flight-level and SFMR winds, outside of heavy rainfall, indicate that the maximum winds remain 30 kt. Deep convection is still lacking in organization, with the heaviest activity well to the north near the Cayman Islands and along the Honduras coast. The depression is moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt, along the southwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge and toward a deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This northwestward motion is expected to persist for the entire 5-day forecast period, with a decrease in forward speed anticipated while the cyclone approaches the Yucatan coast. The track guidance has slowed down a bit during that time, especially the GFS, and the new NHC forecast is therefore a little slower than the previous forecast. After that time, an increase in forward speed is expected, and the NHC forecast lies to the west of the TVCN model consensus, closer to the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA scenarios. The structure of the depression aside, the environment still appears conducive for strengthening while the system approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Vertical shear over the depression is currently less than 10 kt and is expected to remain low for the next 36-48 hours, and sea surface temperatures will be around 30 degrees Celsius. Therefore, steady intensification is shown in the official forecast through 36 hours, and the NHC prediction lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope between the HCCA and HWRF solutions just before the center reaches the Yucatan coast. After some weakening while over the Yucatan Peninsula, re-intensification is likely to occur over the central Gulf of Mexico between days 2 and 3 while vertical shear remains relatively low, and the cyclone could become a hurricane during that time, as shown by the HCCA, HWRF, and HMON models. After day 3, southwesterly vertical shear of 30 kt or more is expected to develop over the northwestern Gulf, and the official forecast follows the trend of all the intensity guidance, showing weakening by day 4 as the cyclone approaches the southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana coastline. This forecast remains highly uncertain, however, and users are urged to continue monitoring changes to this forecast over the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, are expected to diminish today. 2. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it is expected to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region. 3. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the central Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.6N 84.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 20.0N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 24/1200Z 25.1N 91.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 28.7N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 31.3N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 I don't buy anything beyond a 45 mph system here. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 I don't buy anything beyond a 45 mph system here.Got anything to back that up?Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Hot towers going up over the center. First time this system has looked like a TD. Let’s see if it can continue the organizational trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Certainly looks like TD 14 is starting to get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Really bizarre looking now. Yesterday it was a large cluster of convection. Now an exposed LLCC and a large band of convection well-removed to the NE. This is what you'd expect a TS or min hurricane to look like after it moved over the Yucatan, not before (hollowed out center)! Also, peripheral convection seems to be driven more by the deep trough to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, vortex95 said: Really bizarre looking now. Yesterday it was a large cluster of convection. Now an exposed LLCC and a large band of convection well-removed to the NE. This is what you'd expect a TS or min hurricane to look like after it moved over the Yucatan, not before (hollowed out center)! Also, peripheral convection seems to be driven more by the deep trough to the NW. What’s causing the mass void in convection all around the western side of the center of circulation? Is it down sloping off the land or is it from the SW shear from the trough to its north or both, or neither? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 The center did look pretty tight on visible earlier today. Some convection around the center now. Hurricane models are showing a 25-30mb pressure drop before it hits the Yucatan. I take these models more seriously in the near term with storms over warm water in low shear, with a small core. Ernesto, Micheal and Harvey all experienced these kind of deepening rates when they were near the Yucatan. Watch closely the next few hours if the burst over the center continues to grow, it could be an impressive 6-18hr RI event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 I think it's in the final stages of mixing out dry air that's been prevalent to it's N and NW the last couple of days.. I would venture to guess that we see some fairly significant sustained convection during DMAX overnight. If it misses the peninsula altogether there's not a lot in it's way until it hits potential forecasted shear in a few days. Not saying RI or anything but I do think it will be Marco by 5am at the latest. It sure is in a historical area to blow up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 FWIW, forecasted shear among dynamical models is generally in the 20-30 kt range upon entry into the gulf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: 1005.3 mb extrapolated on that center pass, so we do have both a gradual pressure drop and increasing winds. Not a lot of convection elsewhere, but it’s solid where it matters. 4mb drop from the last pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 22, 2020 Author Share Posted August 22, 2020 I'd go ahead and name it. Can't be any worse than Hurricane Barry 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Marco at 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 84.9W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 84.9 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly slower northwestward motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by an increase in forward speed by early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on reports from the Hurricane Hunter plane. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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