Floydbuster Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 Now an invest area, 97L. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 17, 2020 Author Share Posted August 17, 2020 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks pretty good on visible and IR. Still has some work to do but it looks better than it did this morning. Long term future uncertain but I think this has some potential, especially if the upper level conditions are conducive in the western Caribbean. There's alot of haters on this forum the last few days who have been really against this system. I see steady organization, and evidently so does the NHC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: There's alot of haters on this forum the last few days who have been really against this system. I see steady organization, and evidently so does the NHC. But the GFS hasn't seen it for days, it's all a fluke! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 17, 2020 Author Share Posted August 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Calderon said: But the GFS hasn't seen it for days, it's all a fluke! I trust the GFS like I trust polling. It's been off recently, even the EURO hasn't been great with genesis. That being said, now the EURO shows these systems doing something, which is adding to my concern that these systems may become significant tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 NW periphery of 97L's wave axis is now moving through the Windward Islands of the Lesser Antilles. Nothing immediately eye-opening yet. Convective showers and storms embedded in strong easterly flow around the wave. If something within the axis begins to fold, it's likely to be a tick east and not coming into range of radar until later this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 2PM EDT Outlook with respect to 97L: A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands is producing a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This disturbance is moving westward at about 20 mph, and is expected to continue to move quickly westward over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, which is likely to limit significant development. After that time, however, the system is expected to move more slowly westward across the western Caribbean, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands through Tuesday morning. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 The GFS-Para is the experimental GFSv16 versus the current operational GFS model (GFSv15) that has been in operation since 2019. GFSv16 would potentially be the new operational GFS next year barring any upgrade setbacks. At any rate, this morning's run had a very interesting throwback track to Charley. Again, this is an experimental product and even if operational, would be out in the medium range if 97L were to develop. Still interesting nonetheless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 It may look like garbage overall but it's still a healthy wave. Convection keeps pulsing just enough along the wave axis. It's biggest problem has been steady and strong easterly level flow working against development. That is forecast to ease off by tomorrow and become more southeasterly, therefore, development potential remains as long as convection can keep up in the short-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 There's nothing really standing out yet on visible at the surface, but the overall convective envelope continues to improve. There is still clearly cyclonic motion to the wave axis being encompassed by strong convection. Notable curved banding on the backside is developing. Subjectively speaking, something about this disturbance just has that look. We'll see if more rapid convective pulsing can spin up a vortex by tomorrow as the wave slows down in westward motion through the central deep Caribbean. It also probably would help if the northern periphery of the axis is where a low-level vort can develop as that would get it further away from any airmass influences of Venezuela landmass. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Seems like 98L is getting the bulk of the posts atm. 97L got its cherry as of the 2pm TWO. As has been said models will continue to struggle until formation regardless, its going to be an interesting week. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 97L has been pulsing convection this morning. Again, it's a wait and see if that can remain persistent long enough to increase low level convergence and close off a low level vort. No signs yet based on visible. But the potential is still there as long as convection keeps firing. The disturbance does appear to be slowing down its westward motion. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Watch the low level cloud field. They're starting to align west to east into the convection. Might be the beginnings of something closing off at the surface. Definitely keep watching that if convection can keep firing in the same location of the axis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 2 hours ago, Windspeed said: Watch the low level cloud field. They're starting to align west to east into the convection. Might be the beginnings of something closing off at the surface. Definitely keep watching that if convection can keep firing in the same location of the axis. Still too early. These circulations always close off and start deepening rapidly 6 hrs before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 I don't know that I've ever seen such a wide range of models; from basically nothing to hurricanes or at least tropical storms early next week. It's not like Monday is very far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Progress today. Not a lot of posts on this system, but it’s a sleeper if it can organize nicely pre-Yucatán. A tropical wave and accompanying broad area of low pressure is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple of days when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This low pressure area is moving westward, and interests in Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor its progress. Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce heavy rains across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Yup. Been waiting to see what happens as it distances itself from S. America (or vise versa as the coastline begins to recede lol)' If it can get it's act together and minimal if no interaction with the peninsula it's got plenty of fuel ahead of it and there will be no doubt of a landfall. The SE Gulf/NW Caribbean has a bit of a history of storms ramping up quickly. This one I'm a little more concerned with some collapse of steering IF it develops and gets into the SE GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 6 hours ago, Jackstraw said: Yup. Been waiting to see what happens as it distances itself from S. America (or vise versa as the coastline begins to recede lol)' If it can get it's act together and minimal if no interaction with the peninsula it's got plenty of fuel ahead of it and there will be no doubt of a landfall. The SE Gulf/NW Caribbean has a bit of a history of storms ramping up quickly. This one I'm a little more concerned with some collapse of steering IF it develops and gets into the SE GOM. The dual storm scenario with this storm in the gulf while another approaches FL is definitely possible. Disturbances like these in the NW Caribbean in late August is worth monitoring. It's def getting it's act together with tighter rotation and widespread popcorn convection developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Looks to be popcorn storms that will die down. This one is not going to be that strong regardless with no model support other than cmc. Euro ensembles weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hc7 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Pretty cool loop to watch with all the convection, but this looks like a rather healthy and strong wave to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 @Floydbuster time to change the header to Tropical Depression 14Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 59 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Sleeper, sleeper, sleeper. TD 13 gets all the love but this one could surprise too. NHC seems to think so. The environment early on at least is favorable for this one to develop. Still needs to do so, but what an atrocious performance by both the GFS and especially Euro on these two latest threats. Props to NHC for forecasting and not Just model watching. This system had very little model support when NHC gave it the cherry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 No one is showing TD 14 any love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said: No one is showing TD 14 any love! It has a very impressive dual outflow channel for the next 48hrs before it makes landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Amped said: It has a very impressive dual outflow channel for the next 48hrs before it makes landfall. That shows potential I guess but land interaction is going to inhibit it. The models, I think, are underestimating it a bit. Not a lot of shear or dry air and some good warm water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 That shows potential I guess but land interaction is going to inhibit it. The models, I think, are underestimating it a bit. Not a lot of shear or dry air and some good warm water.Looks like recon about to investigate Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 FWIW:Earliest M named stormTropical Storm Maria 9/2/05Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Race is on here for the L and M names. If recon finds a sufficient low-level vort with TS force and TD14 may win Laura.Interestingly recon also finds a pretty strong trough over the north-central GOM on its way there. Going to be fascinating watching all these dynamic features evolve with the tropical systems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Yes it is going to be interesting to say the least. Been waiting all week to see where the initial placement of the pieces will be. I've been watching everything but the 2 potential storms looking for some consistency in model trends for placement of the bumpers in the giant pinball game and I don't see 1 or 2 dominant features that could make the forecast of these 2 potential storms any easier. There are several features from the west coast all the way into the mid Atlantic and as far north as Canada that are currently evolving. Subtle changes in any of these from current modeling will be problematic in any track/intensity forecast. I wouldn't be surprised to see extra ROAB launches from TX to the Carolinas at some point. I would say the level of uncertainty as it stands now is at a higher than usual level. The next 120 hours are definitely going to keep the NHC on their toes. Popcorn is out, let the show begin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 20, 2020 Author Share Posted August 20, 2020 Wouldn't a hurricane coming from this tear apart any system (TD-13) to it's east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The Euro remains baffling. Lord these models have never needed recon data more. The Euro does have this storm making landfall as a minimal hurricane on the Texas coast in about 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Floydbuster said: Wouldn't a hurricane coming from this tear apart any system (TD-13) to it's east? I think the two system are far enough part that it wouldn't matter unless they both ended up in the Gulf at the same time. The Euro keeps TD-13 weak but it's mostly because of how strong the WAR is and lots of land interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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