Bands of Heavy Rain along and se of I84 Sunday 4AM-11PM

[wdrag]

Hi!  

Decided to start the topic. It would be for rainfall reports primarily, and easing of some recent dryness in a few spots of our forum.  FF not likely except maybe southern Ocean County?  Lesser flood advisories would probably occur for poor drainage urban flooding Sunday near NYC (IF I'm reading this right?)  

1.5"+ qpf differences in operational solutions through the 18z/15 (Saturday) with the EC/UK/HRRR op runs very-very light while the NAM continues furthest north with the 1+".  

Preliminarily I see a very sharp cut off of rainfall somewhere from Sussex County NJ northward or I84 ~HFD.  Suspect two bands of heavy rain in our area...one maybe along I80-I78 corridors thru LI (deformation mid level FGEN ~700 MB  in the morning-afternoon, then LI getting the direct storm additional contribution during Sunday evening).  The second band across southern Ocean County NJ.  This is a best estimate based on modeling.  There will be error. 

The northern band narrow, but widespread 0.5 to a few pockets of 2". The drier zone just south of that band in Monmouth to near I195 Trenton,  then the other band over southern Ocean County in the 1.5-3" zone.  E Suffolk County total from both daytime deformation FGEN and evening storm  1.5-3".  

My guess is much of interior se NYS doesn't receive much if any rain and maybe Sussex County too, while we watch some pretty decent bands along I80 or I78?  

If it's any consolation...the 12z GEFS is a tick higher for NJ/LI and as far north as it's been since the 18z/14 run with 1" skirting the s coast of LI. It's broad output so doesn't get into the banding etc. The 12z EPS is noticeably heavier than the 12z EC operational and about 1/2" shy of the GEFS for LI.

I think there is enough information to see a dismally damp midday-evening for much of NJ/LI and some decent rainfall. I think definitely wetter than the 12z SPC HREF. 

If anything, this a model contest trying to understand reality today and the associated modeling, with the follow through for Sunday.  Compromise is always best realizing the downside of forecasting too heavy too far north. 436P/15  (I do not plan to post anymore until Sunday morning - have to ride it out now).

•  

[Jeff Grann]

25 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi!  

Decided to start the topic. It would be for rainfall reports primarily, and easing of some recent dryness in a few spots of our forum.  FF not likely except maybe southern Ocean County?  Lesser flood advisories would probably occur for poor drainage urban flooding Sunday near NYC (IF I'm reading this right?)  

1.5"+ qpf differences in operational solutions through the 18z/15 (Saturday) with the EC/UK/HRRR op runs very-very light while the NAM continues furthest north with the 1+".  

Preliminarily I see a very sharp cut off of rainfall somewhere from Sussex County NJ northward or I84 ~HFD.  Suspect two bands of heavy rain in our area...one maybe along I80-I78 corridors thru LI (deformation mid level FGEN ~700 MB  in the morning-afternoon, then LI getting the direct storm additional contribution during Sunday evening).  The second band across southern Ocean County NJ.  This is a best estimate based on modeling.  There will be error. 

The northern band narrow, but widespread 0.5 to a few pockets of 2". The drier zone just south of that band in Monmouth to near I195 Trenton,  then the other band over southern Ocean County in the 1.5-3" zone.  E Suffolk County total from both daytime deformation FGEN and evening storm  1.5-3".  

My guess is much of interior se NYS doesn't receive much if any rain and maybe Sussex County too, while we watch some pretty decent bands along I80 or I78?  

If it's any consolation...the 12z GEFS is a tick higher for NJ/LI and as far north as it's been since the 18z/14 run with 1" skirting the s coast of LI. It's broad output so doesn't get into the banding etc. The 12z EPS is noticeably heavier than the 12z EC operational and about 1/2" shy of the GEFS for LI.

I think there is enough information to see a dismally damp midday-evening for much of NJ/LI and some decent rainfall. I think definitely wetter than the 12z SPC HREF. 

If anything, this a model contest trying to understand reality today and the associated modeling, with the follow through for Sunday.  Compromise is always best realizing the downside of forecasting too heavy too far north. 436P/15  (I do not plan to post anymore until Sunday morning - have to ride it out now).

•  

18z 3k NAM came quite a bit North from 12z to more reflect precip placement of NAM. A bit lighter totals in far NNJ/ Orange Cty (. 5+ as compared to 1"+) but nonetheless at least it wasn't a dry run like 12z

[Allsnow]

Gfs is pretty wet from nyc south tomorrow 

 

.5 for nyc and 1.00+ for Snj 

[Rtd208]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gfs is pretty wet from nyc south tomorrow 

 

.5 for nyc and 1.00+ for Snj 

It seems like the GFS has been inching back north since the 12z run. Maybe the NAM has mostly been onto something here with it showing the heavier rains further north. We'll see.

[Stormlover74]

[Allsnow]

18z euro bumped north .3-.5 now. 

[wdrag]

As we awake,  it looks like the EC/UK have admitted to decent 1/2"+ rain for LI/NJ and the 06Z NAM says, I'll be the exceedingly dry EC/UK of many past cycles.  WPC D1 is a good start and a bit less than my expectations from yesterday. I stay with yesterdays topic starter, except the sharp cutoff on the northwest side may end up somewhere interior se NYS extreme nw CT. In other words further nw than evaluated yesterday.  Banding of heavier showers s definitely occurring through early afternoon and whether I targeted the heaviest axis properly, is up for debate but it all merges into one every nice summer nor'easter late today...a nasty afternoon-evening for LI and the NJ shore.  

You'll also note contribution from the warm Atlantic waters in the form of low top showers moving ashore (westward) this morning, beneath the mid level northeast moving rains. Pretty impressive for summer, I think, in terms of the mixed cyclonic system event.

For what it's worth .04 here at our house in Wantage so far, since it began ~330A. 

I will post again at times today. 637A/16

 

 

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, wdrag said:

As we awake,  it looks like the EC/UK have admitted to decent 1/2"+ rain for LI/NJ and the 06Z NAM says, I'll be the exceedingly dry EC/UK of many past cycles.  WPC D1 is a good start and a bit less than my expectations from yesterday. I stay with yesterdays topic starter, except the sharp cutoff on the northwest side may end up somewhere interior se NYS extreme nw CT. In other words further nw than evaluated yesterday.  Banding of heavier showers s definitely occurring through early afternoon and whether I targeted the heaviest axis properly, is up for debate but it all merges into one every nice summer nor'easter late today...a nasty afternoon-evening for LI and the NJ shore.  

You'll also note contribution from the warm Atlantic waters in the form of low top showers moving ashore (westward) this morning, beneath the mid level northeast moving rains. Pretty impressive for summer, I think, in terms of the mixed cyclonic system event.

For what it's worth .04 here at our house in Wantage so far, since it began ~330A. 

I will post again at times today. 637A/16

 

 

The  Euro has been too suppressed at times with the northern edge of precipitation with tracks near the benchmark in recent years. ECMWF did a good write-up on the January 2016 historic blizzard. Maybe the model upgrades did something in the 2014-2015 time frame? I can remember it doing very well with the February 2013 Nemo blizzard from 5 days out.

https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/201601+-+Snowstorm+-+US+east+coast

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

• Early signal (from Sunday 17 Jan 00z) and very consistent forecasts
• Too low accumulation over NYC
• Question about snow density for the case

 

[wdrag]

Rain delays of ball games in nw NJ til it ends late morning in Sussex-Warren counties. .07 in Wanateg but already around 0.2 in Warren County near Hackettstown. 

[Brian5671]

heavy windswept rains here in OC, NJ-not fun for the first day of vacation-rest of week looks great though

[gravitylover]

64/63/RN-/ENE1

This is the first steady rain I've gotten in a while but so far it's only .1".  I think that 1mph wind is a bit light, the trees are moving a little bit more than that would suggest.

[wdrag]

All good and on target for most of our area.  Doing much better in se NYS and nw CT than anticipated yesterday. already 1/2-1.1" southern Ocean County. Plenty more to come. 924A/16

[Cfa]

68 and drizzle, 0.05” so far.

Can’t recall the last time it was this cool at this hour.

[Allsnow]

.27. Has the back of the summer heat finally broken? Looks normal to below normal going forward 

[gravitylover]

64/63/DRZL/E1-2

Ooh ooh, up to .2" but the northern edge does seem to be sinking south and it's barely drizzling now so that may be all she wrote. I'd sure like to see another inch or so but that doesn't appear to be happening  

[wdrag]

So far as of 1030AM attached, NJ only.  Back edge of the w NJ steady band will progress east of I95 by evening but low top junk drizzle sprinkles will sweep west into w NJ this afternoon.  

Biggest rains after 2P should shift to all of LI  

Am okay with the two bands through 2P, thereafter we should see some sort of merger NYC eastward. 

 

Added MARFC fall analysis last 12 hours. seems a little shy in Ocean County. 

[Dark Star]

57 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

.27. Has the back of the summer heat finally broken? Looks normal to below normal going forward 

Sacrus' forecast would beg to differ, but I hope no more hot days...

[FPizz]

.42".  Not bad

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Sacrus' forecast would beg to differ, but I hope no more hot days...

There will be more hot days

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

.27. Has the back of the summer heat finally broken? Looks normal to below normal going forward 

Given the trend the past few years, it’s tough to bet against sneaking in a few 90+ days in Sept/Oct.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

There will be more hot days

of course there will be but we've broken the endless streak of high dews/temps near 90 for the time being.

[doncat]

Looks to be about finished with 0.31" here.

[Intensewind002]

Decent amount of rain so far, 0.27"

[psv88]

Steady rain all day out here. We’ve gotten some nice rains lately, everything is green and lush

[IrishRob17]

.04”

[jm1220]

No heavy rain here but a good soaker that will help the plants for a good while. Probably 0.3” or so. 

[uofmiami]

.35 at both Muttontown & Syosset with rain still coming down. 

[psv88]

Radar looks like Juno...let’s keep this look for the winter 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.23" of rain so far today. The Euro/UK were to dry and south.

[wdrag]

0.07 Wantage and probably ended up 1/2" too high on all I80 south expectations. Will post CoCORAHS map around Noon Monday.  Still, had this been winter... the modeling problem was excessive at 24 hours (18z/15) and even the 06z/16 NAM was poor-reversing it's excesses of the 15th to very low qpf values for today. Difficult to understand such a lack of agreement in the very short term (non convective driven).