Fall 2020 forecast discussion

[michsnowfreak]

19 hours ago, Gino27 said:

I was mainly referencing that those water temp anomalies signal positive EPO/NAO/AO. I could be wrong, that's just the way I see it being going forward. La Nina is typically good around here, but a La Nina developing this time of year following some time in El Nino usually lead to a EPO+ and AO+ pattern. However, the CFS (for whatever microgram of salt it's worth) has plenty of hope of a nice early start to winter. Like always, whatever follows after New Year's can really be a tossup.

this is the time of year the speculation begins in earnest....but what will happen, nobody knows.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

this is the time of year the speculation begins in earnest....but what will happen, nobody knows.

It will get cold and there will be snow.

There.  Simple.  

[bowtie`]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It will get cold and there will be snow.

There.  Simple.  

What about ice? Pingers?

[Gino27]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It will get cold and there will be snow.

There.  Simple.  

Wow this is a hot take. Big if true.

[Gino27]

Oh... welcome back!

[Brian D]

On 8/19/2020 at 9:17 AM, (((Will))) said:

Oh, it'll be nice to follow your experiences in Two Harbors. I live just across the lake from you on the Keweenaw Peninsula (Calumet/Laurium, Michigan) and the difference between us is often striking.

 

Do you take many pictures? I hope so.

Definitely feels like fall is getting going over here. I've noticed that the leaves have distinctly begun to change, if only JUST.

The Lake definitely governs your weather. Snows like the mountains until ice up, if it ices up. Hwy 2 is an ugly drive during the winter.

[Brian D]

Well, decided to put up my forecast for Halloween for those that involve themselves with trick n treats. Being 6 weeks out, lets see how close I get this.

Looks like the upper midwest will be on the colder side with W to N winds (flurries/sn shwers?), and a storm front/low pressure in the lakes region.

Map of what it may look like.

 

[Brian D]

On 8/14/2020 at 3:51 PM, Brian D said:

Met Fall is just around the corner. If you have any forecasts or thoughts concerning the upcoming season, go for it.

I believe we start it off with cooler weather for the first half of the Sept with more normal conditions in the second half. My model suggests some very cold air coming in a little early with widespread frost and freeze conditions typical of later Sept in the north.

Oct looks to be quite a mixed bag of weather on a week to week basis into early Nov. Oct could be very interesting and a bit wild, but it is Oct, and wild is no stranger during this month as the seasons clash like they do in Spring. Be ready!! Then by mid - Nov, I'm expecting some very cold weather for our region with the LES machine cranking up strong. Then comes the heavy snows of early Dec, especially my way, but that's another season discussion.

The weather this Fall will probably mirror the crazy climate of little critters and elections. In the words of the Fonz "NUTSO"!! LOL

Be blessed all in these crazy times!

So far on track with Sept. Rather mild conditions set to show up this week at least for the western lakes. Should end up close to seasonal temps by the end of the month for the second half, hence " more normal conditions" along with some needed rain. I'm really interested in Oct though. Could be a rather fun weather month, we'll see.

[Baum]

I'm good with no Halloween snow.

[RogueWaves]

On 8/18/2020 at 4:36 PM, Chicago Storm said:

Euro weeklies are a very torchy for Sept.

 

On 8/18/2020 at 8:46 PM, A-L-E-K said:

Yeah, September gonna be warm, probably turn wet too

Running -4F around here 2/3 of the way through. That must've been for yby's

[Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

 

Running -4F around here 2/3 of the way through. That must've been for yby's

You move north?  

 

 

Euro weeklies do kind of suck, in an absolute sense.  Not a whole lot of reliable long range modeling though.

[Brian D]

This reminds me of the mid 90's when we had snow in the air really early in the Fall season. Oct will be interesting as I thought. From snow to thunder and back again throughout the month? A mixed bag indeed.

 

 

[Brian D]

This one too.

 

[Brian D]

Earlier in this thread, I noted the possible areas of above or below avg temps this Fall. This was my thinking of what it could be. One month in, and I'm probably a bit off already, but with 2 months to go with met fall, we'll see. I do pretty well with long range, but I fail at it sometimes too. That's the way it is.

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Brian D said:

Earlier in this thread, I noted the possible areas of above or below avg temps this Fall. This was my thinking of what it could be. One month in, and I'm probably a bit off already, but with 2 months to go with met fall, we'll see. I do pretty well with long range, but I fail at it sometimes too. That's the way it is.

 

this is an interesting take since the modeled October outlook is sort of the opposite....warmer than average west and near average to possibly below average east. But who knows....seasonal forecasting is tough. 

[Brian D]

I looked up Sept snowfall for the Duluth area 0.1" or greater. Data prior to the 40's would have been near the lake, after that the airport readings are about 5 miles inland and a little higher in elevation. Easier to get snow accumulations up there in the Fall, so very significant are snows near the lake that accumulate. The 1991 value may have been easily broken if snow was measured over the hill back then. Interesting that 1991 had that much as we also experienced the Halloween snowstorm that dumped 3 ft. of snow around Duluth/Two Harbors that same year. That was wild! Made for an interesting deer hunting season a week later. https://www.weather.gov/dlh/1991halloweenblizzard

9/18/1991  2.4"

9/29/1908  1.5"

9/25/1927  0.9"

9/30/1985  0.7"

9/23/1928  0.3"

9/21/1974  0.2"

9/26/1912  0.1"

9/30/1974  0.1"

9/21/1995  0.1"

9/21/2012  0.1"

[RogueWaves]

On 9/22/2020 at 1:46 PM, Hoosier said:

You move north?  

 

 

Euro weeklies do kind of suck, in an absolute sense.  Not a whole lot of reliable long range modeling though.

I know KLAN was at -4F that's why I said "around here" or this general region. We share the cold morning lows with them along the US-27 corridor where zero lake influence is in play. That map has us right on the line of -2 to -4F and since there's not long-term data kept here I'm a bit skeptical of the way they've smoothed the curves for my county. Scored 3 nights in a row in the 30s while no airport E or W did that. Happens with those annual avg snowfall maps too. They are all a bit lower. Perhaps due to not including all the <0.5" dabs we get via LES

[MrFreeze6298]

Possible winter offensive next weekend on the northern tip of Minnesota?

[Brian D]

On 8/14/2020 at 3:51 PM, Brian D said:

Met Fall is just around the corner. If you have any forecasts or thoughts concerning the upcoming season, go for it.

I believe we start it off with cooler weather for the first half of the Sept with more normal conditions in the second half. My model suggests some very cold air coming in a little early with widespread frost and freeze conditions typical of later Sept in the north.

Oct looks to be quite a mixed bag of weather on a week to week basis into early Nov. Oct could be very interesting and a bit wild, but it is Oct, and wild is no stranger during this month as the seasons clash like they do in Spring. Be ready!! Then by mid - Nov, I'm expecting some very cold weather for our region with the LES machine cranking up strong. Then comes the heavy snows of early Dec, especially my way, but that's another season discussion.

The weather this Fall will probably mirror the crazy climate of little critters and elections. In the words of the Fonz "NUTSO"!! LOL

Be blessed all in these crazy times!

Not quite right with that forecast. It ended avg-much warmer NW areas and avg-much cooler in the SE areas.

[Brian D]

On 8/14/2020 at 3:51 PM, Brian D said:

Met Fall is just around the corner. If you have any forecasts or thoughts concerning the upcoming season, go for it.

I believe we start it off with cooler weather for the first half of the Sept with more normal conditions in the second half. My model suggests some very cold air coming in a little early with widespread frost and freeze conditions typical of later Sept in the north.

Oct looks to be quite a mixed bag of weather on a week to week basis into early Nov. Oct could be very interesting and a bit wild, but it is Oct, and wild is no stranger during this month as the seasons clash like they do in Spring. Be ready!! Then by mid - Nov, I'm expecting some very cold weather for our region with the LES machine cranking up strong. Then comes the heavy snows of early Dec, especially my way, but that's another season discussion.

The weather this Fall will probably mirror the crazy climate of little critters and elections. In the words of the Fonz "NUTSO"!! LOL

Be blessed all in these crazy times!

Yep, it is all that so far with more to come. 2020 in the Duluth area has seen quite a few top 5 records in both the high and low categories.

[Brian D]

On 9/20/2020 at 5:09 PM, Brian D said:

Well, decided to put up my forecast for Halloween for those that involve themselves with trick n treats. Being 6 weeks out, lets see how close I get this.

Looks like the upper midwest will be on the colder side with W to N winds (flurries/sn shwers?), and a storm front/low pressure in the lakes region.

Map of what it may look like.

 

Well, I got this one close. Map for Sat eve.

[Brian D]

On 9/25/2020 at 2:04 PM, Brian D said:

Earlier in this thread, I noted the possible areas of above or below avg temps this Fall. This was my thinking of what it could be. One month in, and I'm probably a bit off already, but with 2 months to go with met fall, we'll see. I do pretty well with long range, but I fail at it sometimes too. That's the way it is.

 

Fall's about over, so here is how I did with my 3 month outlook. Pretty close.