Brian D Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 Met Fall is just around the corner. If you have any forecasts or thoughts concerning the upcoming season, go for it. I believe we start it off with cooler weather for the first half of the Sept with more normal conditions in the second half. My model suggests some very cold air coming in a little early with widespread frost and freeze conditions typical of later Sept in the north. Oct looks to be quite a mixed bag of weather on a week to week basis into early Nov. Oct could be very interesting and a bit wild, but it is Oct, and wild is no stranger during this month as the seasons clash like they do in Spring. Be ready!! Then by mid - Nov, I'm expecting some very cold weather for our region with the LES machine cranking up strong. Then comes the heavy snows of early Dec, especially my way, but that's another season discussion. The weather this Fall will probably mirror the crazy climate of little critters and elections. In the words of the Fonz "NUTSO"!! LOL Be blessed all in these crazy times! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 I would go warmer than normal for fall with the La Nina that should be in place 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 15, 2020 Share Posted August 15, 2020 I hope we can get a nice fall severe weather event. Been awhile since we had one of those. The derecho wasn’t enough for me . I still need to get one Actually Good™ tornado on the year and it’ll be complete. The two bird farts I got 5/23 didn’t do it for me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted August 15, 2020 Share Posted August 15, 2020 Brian D, keep us posted with obs this fall and winter, it’s great to have a new poster from the far north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted August 15, 2020 Share Posted August 15, 2020 18 hours ago, Brian D said: Met Fall is just around the corner. If you have any forecasts or thoughts concerning the upcoming season, go for it. I believe we start it off with cooler weather for the first half of the Sept with more normal conditions in the second half. My model suggests some very cold air coming in a little early with widespread frost and freeze conditions typical of later Sept in the north. Oct looks to be quite a mixed bag of weather on a week to week basis into early Nov. Oct could be very interesting and a bit wild, but it is Oct, and wild is no stranger during this month as the seasons clash like they do in Spring. Be ready!! Then by mid - Nov, I'm expecting some very cold weather for our region with the LES machine cranking up strong. Then comes the heavy snows of early Dec, especially my way, but that's another season discussion. The weather this Fall will probably mirror the crazy climate of little critters and elections. In the words of the Fonz "NUTSO"!! LOL Be blessed all in these crazy times! Just realized how far north in Minnesota you are. In 2016 and 2017 I was up in Fort Frances and spent lots of time in International Falls. You guys have a stronger Canadian accent then us in Toronto haha. Very friendly people and I couldnt believe the amount of dual citizens on both sides of the border. The towns almost seemed like one big town (radio did news for both towns and weather in F and C, parties/bars were attended by both sides) Your weather is certainly one of the harshest outside the mountain ranges in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 15, 2020 Share Posted August 15, 2020 I would love to have an average fall. I am so so so over summer. Detroit had 14 days of 90+, which is not far from the average of 12, but the persistence of heat from mid June to July was impressive. Adding to stebos earlier comment, weak la ninas often have mild autumns followed by Winter hitting early and hard (with the 2nd half of Winter more up in the air). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted August 15, 2020 Author Share Posted August 15, 2020 13 hours ago, hlcater said: I hope we can get a nice fall severe weather event. Been awhile since we had one of those. The derecho wasn’t enough for me . I still need to get one Actually Good™ tornado on the year and it’ll be complete. The two bird farts I got 5/23 didn’t do it for me. Derecho was not enough? Tiny tornadoes not enough? Tell that to the farmers Well to each his own, even though I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted August 15, 2020 Author Share Posted August 15, 2020 21 hours ago, Stebo said: I would go warmer than normal for fall with the La Nina that should be in place A lot of strong warm fronts are mixed in my model so hence the mixed bag reference, so there will be that potential SE of my location. The N Plains have the strongest potential for a below normal Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted August 15, 2020 Author Share Posted August 15, 2020 6 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Brian D, keep us posted with obs this fall and winter, it’s great to have a new poster from the far north. Will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted August 15, 2020 Author Share Posted August 15, 2020 5 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: Just realized how far north in Minnesota you are. In 2016 and 2017 I was up in Fort Frances and spent lots of time in International Falls. You guys have a stronger Canadian accent then us in Toronto haha. Very friendly people and I couldnt believe the amount of dual citizens on both sides of the border. The towns almost seemed like one big town (radio did news for both towns and weather in F and C, parties/bars were attended by both sides) Your weather is certainly one of the harshest outside the mountain ranges in the US. Between CA and the Lakes, it sure keeps it interesting. NWS mets struggle with forecasting our area. Accents are much more prevalent up there than here. Pretty well mixed in my town. An "ayy" now and again comes up, but "sure, you betcha" is more common. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 15, 2020 Share Posted August 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian D said: A lot of strong warm fronts are mixed in my model so hence the mixed bag reference, so there will be that potential SE of my location. The N Plains have the strongest potential for a below normal Fall. are you seeing a snowy start to winter in the Great Lakes? ala weak nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: are you seeing a snowy start to winter in the Great Lakes? ala weak nina (From the August thread) Would these work for you? Quote Bring on the August 2017, 2015, 2013, 2009, 2004, 2000, 1997, and 1992 analogs. MOST would work for me. Wasn't 2017 a top-5 Dec for Detroit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted August 16, 2020 Author Share Posted August 16, 2020 4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: are you seeing a snowy start to winter in the Great Lakes? ala weak nina Potential looks good, but mainly Upper Midwest/N Lakes tho. So I guess we shall see. As your username implies, your ready, so bring IT!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: (From the August thread) Would these work for you? MOST would work for me. Wasn't 2017 a top-5 Dec for Detroit? Yes it was. Most would work for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, Brian D said: Potential looks good, but mainly Upper Midwest/N Lakes tho. So I guess we shall see. As your username implies, your ready, so bring IT!! I'm ready for fall that's for sure. By Halloween time is when I get ready for snow. I'm in Southern Michigan, however when looking at the weak La Ninas, it's uncanny how strong the signal is for a snowy December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 As long as we're not dealing with 90 degree temps raging into October like last year I'll be happy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 west winds and kings all september / october please 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Time to fire up the weenie machine!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Looks like we're going to get an early Fall this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Looks like we're going to get an early Fall this year.40 90°+ days incoming for ORD.. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 If the 654 hour CFS says early fall, I am all in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Euro weeklies are a very torchy for Sept.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 9 hours ago, Gino27 said: Time to fire up the weenie machine!! Reminds me of when I was looking at my vacation around Lake Superior back in 2016. At this range it even had snow along the north shore. What verified, a couple of normal days 70s/low 50s and then unseasonably warm in the low to mid 80s across the UP. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 15 minutes ago, Stebo said: Reminds me of when I was looking at my vacation around Lake Superior back in 2016. At this range it even had snow along the north shore. What verified, a couple of normal days 70s/low 50s and then unseasonably warm in the low to mid 80s across the UP. Yeah I'd say we're still in the thick of summer for quite some time. Don't love the early indicators of climo for late fall and winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Yeah, September gonna be warm, probably turn wet too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 42 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Yeah, September gonna be warm, probably turn wet too Yeah especially if the Bermuda ridge can flex, if so then we can expect some remnant action head this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 2 hours ago, Gino27 said: Yeah I'd say we're still in the thick of summer for quite some time. Don't love the early indicators of climo for late fall and winter. Summers back, i.e. heat, is definitely broken, but it does appear to be some time before true fall weather settle thin. Not sure what early indicators you're referring to, but actually a weak la nina typically features a mild fall followed by an early onset of Winter. I have a good feeling about the Christmas season this year, but very on the fence about what happens after the New Year. I researched weak La Nina winters here and the signal for a snowy December is as strong a signal as I've ever seen in an analog set, but after new years there's a large variety. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 On 8/15/2020 at 10:42 PM, Brian D said: Potential looks good, but mainly Upper Midwest/N Lakes tho. So I guess we shall see. As your username implies, your ready, so bring IT!! By the way, you've referenced "your model". what model are you referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Summers back, i.e. heat, is definitely broken, but it does appear to be some time before true fall weather settle thin. Not sure what early indicators you're referring to, but actually a weak la nina typically features a mild fall followed by an early onset of Winter. I have a good feeling about the Christmas season this year, but very on the fence about what happens after the New Year. I researched weak La Nina winters here and the signal for a snowy December is as strong a signal as I've ever seen in an analog set, but after new years there's a large variety. I was mainly referencing that those water temp anomalies signal positive EPO/NAO/AO. I could be wrong, that's just the way I see it being going forward. La Nina is typically good around here, but a La Nina developing this time of year following some time in El Nino usually lead to a EPO+ and AO+ pattern. However, the CFS (for whatever microgram of salt it's worth) has plenty of hope of a nice early start to winter. Like always, whatever follows after New Year's can really be a tossup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted August 19, 2020 Author Share Posted August 19, 2020 17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: By the way, you've referenced "your model". what model are you referring to? My own personal one. It's a fun hobby and very complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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