Cfa Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 0.03” here, and it’s been drizzling for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 About 1" today. stationary storms just dumped on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 .26 in Syosset & .14 in Muttontown. Feast or famine with the rain of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 14, 2020 Author Share Posted August 14, 2020 Not completely done: I think i found one 4.1" two- day total in Manchester Township NJ, w of Toms River in Ocean County-via wx underground. It had 2.81 for two days but had to correct 1 day down because it baselined too high. Otherwise, I added a map of flood and heavy rain reports from this morning-midday. No overwhelming flooding but the short duration RW+ this morning into midday across the I95 corridor was significant for some of us. I anticipate pin head heavy showers along I95 tonight, but the bigger deal of spotty 1-3" rains should be developing between 2AM and Noon Friday near I78 or just south of I78. Am focused on vicinity JFK-Middlesex-Monmouth to maybe Somerset-Mercer counties for nearly stationary heavy showers developing overnight in a still moist unstable environment with very little steering aloft --driven by model anticipated low level convergence along the s coast of LI (subtle convergence between easterly flow directions into Raritan Bay. Showers probably will be concentrated at the nose of this possible convergence zone. Several models imply some sort of shower activity and knowing what has happened in this summer low top convective environment, it won't surprise me to see a bunch of heavy showers on-going somewhere between I78 and I195 when we get up tomorrow morning. All of this should subside midday Friday. So I could be wrong-my confidence on this occurring is around 60%. Am not planning to extend any heavy convective forecast beyond Noon Friday. 759P/13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, wdrag said: Not completely done: I think i found one 4.1" two- day total in Manchester Township NJ, w of Toms River in Ocean County-via wx underground. It had 2.81 for two days but had to correct 1 day down because it baselined too high. Otherwise, I added a map of flood and heavy rain reports from this morning-midday. No overwhelming flooding but the short duration RW+ this morning into midday across the I95 corridor was significant for some of us. I anticipate pin head heavy showers along I95 tonight, but the bigger deal of spotty 1-3" rains should be developing between 2AM and Noon Friday near I78 or just south of I78. Am focused on vicinity JFK-Middlesex-Monmouth to maybe Somerset-Mercer counties for nearly stationary heavy showers developing overnight in a still moist unstable environment with very little steering aloft --driven by model anticipated low level convergence along the s coast of LI (subtle convergence between easterly flow directions into Raritan Bay. Showers probably will be concentrated at the nose of this possible convergence zone. Several models imply some sort of shower activity and knowing what has happened in this summer low top convective environment, it won't surprise me to see a bunch of heavy showers on-going somewhere between I78 and I195 when we get up tomorrow morning. All of this should subside midday Friday. So I could be wrong-my confidence on this occurring is around 60%. Am not planning to extend any heavy convective forecast beyond Noon Friday. 759P/13 Any thoughts on Saturday night thru early Monday?? Seems like there is some model disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 14, 2020 Author Share Posted August 14, 2020 On 8/13/2020 at 8:20 PM, Rtd208 said: Any thoughts on Saturday night thru early Monday?? Seems like there is some model disagreement. GEFS is 1+ and increasing nw of I95, EPS about 0.3" and NAEFS 1/2"+ with lots of variability. Should rain sometime Sunday afternoon-night. Too early for me to get energized when this seemingly benign stuff is so challenging the next 12-15 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 Picked up 0.82" of rain for the day yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 14, 2020 Author Share Posted August 14, 2020 Looks like the Friday morning segment JFK-I78 will not happen, at least not more than a few showers at worst. BUST on this last segment of the two day. Regarding Sunday, will post in the August topic since quite bit of uncertainty. 556A/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 14, 2020 Author Share Posted August 14, 2020 Adding just a little more info on yesterday, 48 hour combined. Will reedit with HPRCC to show pocket-convective band oriented all the rainfall of the past week, most of that rain Monday-Tuesday. It's not highly accurate but offers an idea of the above normal and below normal areas in the past few days. 3+ report, in addition to the one 4+ posted yesterday. 1052A/14 ...Somerset County... 0.6 E Belle Mead 3.49 in 0600 PM 08/13 IFLOWS 3 W Kendall Park 2.32 in 1100 AM 08/13 Public 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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