Rtd208 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Picked up 0.73" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 552PM update: reports attached for our area. Once the convection subsides by 10PM, it should retire, in potentially heavier manner between 4AM and Noon Thursday...again mostly NJ/LI but can't rule out brief development into se NYS/CT. IF for some reason this is erroneous, then afternoon convection will occur. It's one or the other but from what I can tell, a significant Thursday morning event is coming. The greatest threat for tiny areas of excessive 4+ inch rain Thursday appears to be the southern edge of the forum up to I78 in NJ and include LI. No surprises if several FFW's are needed for this area and even isolated SVR's. Frontal boundary, WAA in the lower layers with weak wsw steering current and PWAT near 2" leads me to thinking we've a busy Thursday ahead. 558P/12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 13, 2020 Author Share Posted August 13, 2020 Good Thursday morning everyone with interest in Heavy Rain, several FF warnings and isolated SVR's for NJ I78 southward and LI. No guarantees. Subtle areas of surface lift will be the drivers the next day or two. Small groups of heavy showers have popped near EWR and se CT since 130 AM. These are along what I see as somewhat defined boundary of drier dew points in extreme nw NJ (Wantage dew point 63 at dawn), se NYS and n CT. This boundary is probably the focus this morning-midday. I expect heavy showers and thunderstorms to become more numerous by 10AM across parts of LI and in NJ I78 region southward into Monmouth County. We'll see how this goes. Plenty of instability is available along this dry-moist boundary along with PWAT 2". Won't take much for intense short duration rainfall. This afternoon, wind shifts further south down in Ocean County to Mercer County will focus heavy convection there where a FF Watch is posted. By the time activity dies out around 9PM this evening 'isolated' 4" rainfall should have occurred. The worst this morning is probably LI with the concentration of heavy convection shifting to mostly central NJ s of I78 during mid afternoon. Friday: Renewed activity is expected by Noon in NJ-LI, but PWAT should be 4 tenths of an inch less so the chance of 4" rainfall diminishes tho is not completely zero. Will try to reevaluate at times today as convection-modeling unfolds. 559A/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Looks like it stays along or south of I278 in Westchester (again) and within a few miles of the coast in CT if they hold together that far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 13, 2020 Author Share Posted August 13, 2020 8AM reports...~0.93 S Amboy earlier this morning and in the past hour many 1-2" reports Mercer County NJ east. Includes 2.24" in the vicinity of Princeton. Checked Rutgers and CoCORAHS. None capture the bigger amounts seen on Wxunderground and radar storm totals as well as NYC CLI sites. Attached early reports from CcCORAHS as of ~8A. These totals would be from 1130A yesterday to 8AM this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 13, 2020 Author Share Posted August 13, 2020 HRDPS and HRRR 06z, 11z have no clue on what's going on this morning. NAM/RGEM have a sense but ~ 30 MI too far north (probably), UK has an idea but maybe a tough too far south. DIX radar seems to be underestimating rainfall as both digital STP from OKX/DIX. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Thunder and heavy rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Pouring here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Very heavy rain and some thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Drizzle here, radar popped all around me so far. My mother in Piscataway looks to have gotten some heavy rains and storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Nice loud thunder here with moderate rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Loudest clap of thunder I’ve heard in years struck here a minute ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 13, 2020 Author Share Posted August 13, 2020 Seems to be calming down at 1030A. Don't know how this evolves this afternoon. Usually different areas of coverage if and where it refires. DCA-Ches Bay complex throwing lots of clouds northeast and that may minimize some of the potential refire up here mid afternoon. From my perspective... wherever it becomes obvious it can heat to 80+ with dew point more than 70 and surface wind convergence, are areas to monitor in NJ/LI. Max so far today seems to be 2.4 near Princeton. No more posts from me for a while til am sure of something. 1038A/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Cell over northern Nassau barely moving. FF warning until 1pm for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Line of storrms firing just south of me, not moving this way though-looks to skim the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Had 0.89" with the cell in a short time around 10am...currently a rain cooled 72°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 13, 2020 Author Share Posted August 13, 2020 Arghhh. activity extreme ne NJ into extreme se NYS and along LI Sound bordering coastal CT running a little north of where I thought there might be some problems from the past two days of posts. That in mind, heavy rains (possible new FFW over urban areas) will occur where they are now at 1135A and possibly advance northward between now and 130PM. Meanwhile, unsure on the remainder of the evolution over NJ/LI but seeing the Ches Bay complex activate south Jersey. How far north does it go? Modeling suggests to central NJ by 4P but uncertainty in a fairly potent heavy rain situation that lacks typical large scale cool season synoptic organization. Enjoy the processes and any reports of 4+ inch rainfall totals from the past 25 hours (started 1130A yesterday), please relay them here. Thanks. Walt 1140A/13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, wdrag said: Arghhh. activity extreme ne NJ into extreme se NYS and along LI Sound bordering coastal CT running a little north of where I thought there might be some problems from the past two days of posts. That in mind, heavy rains (possible new FFW over urban areas) will occur where they are now at 1135A and possibly advance northward between now and 130PM. Meanwhile, unsure on the remainder of the evolution over NJ/LI but seeing the Ches Bay complex activate south Jersey. How far north does it go? Modeling suggests to central NJ by 4P but uncertainty in a fairly potent heavy rain situation that lacks typical large scale cool season synoptic organization. Enjoy the processes and any reports of 4+ inch rainfall totals from the past 25 hours (started 1130A yesterday), please relay them here. Thanks. Walt 1140A/13 It does look like that Chesapeake complex is crawling along the front towards CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Picked up 0.81" of rain so far today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Downpour started 3 mins ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Getting crushed here in western suffolk, cell is not moving and just DUMPING rain right now, everything flooded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 As per usual, cannot buy a drop of rain on the south shore. Dryness will only act to make the salt situation worse. Meanwhile here on the UWS things are as lush and green as you will see in mid August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 can see it raining about a mile or so south of here-so close, yet so far...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Just lost power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Just lost power again after it was fully restored 15 hrs ago. Rainfall so far is 0.76"-prior to today only 0.02" had fallen since Isaias- so it's not all bad. Power co est return to service 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, psv88 said: Just lost power 5 minutes ago, STORMANLI said: Just lost power again after it was fully restored 15 hrs ago. Rainfall so far is 0.76"-prior to today only 0.02" had fallen since Isaias- so it's not all bad. Power co est return to service 11pm any wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: any wind? None. It’s maddening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Calm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Wow hours of rain for north Delaware which was also crushed by Isaias. There must be monthly records getting cracked this year for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 No rain here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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