wdrag Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Since PHI issued a FF watch for much of its area yesterday, and then OKX followed suit this morning for parts of NY metro; have started this topic. Yes, potential exists for Flash Flooding and a few small areas of 4+ inch rains by Noon Friday, but model guidance is not overwhelmingly favorable for our NYC forum area. Northeast NJ, because of its infrastructure, and previous soil moisture condition is most vulnerable. But, best convergence for heavy convection appears to favor I78 southward for the entire period (south of more vulnerable ne NJ), with heavy convection possible further north to FWN-HPN-BDR up there only this afternoon. (for now, it seems se NYS and much of interior CT will miss the big stuff these next several days - keep watering the flowers from time to time). More than adequate CAPE and PWAT exist for heavy rainfall, KI are not pooled excessively in our area so far, but enough exists with a frontal boundary in a fairly light wind flow aloft. SVR: Since winds aloft are light, SVR if any, should be very limited, and probably only the I78 region southward-subject to modeling change. In summary: There should be organization for 1-3, short duration episodes of very heavy rain the next several days, especially in NJ. It seems most of this will be in the southern part of our NY forum area and even though the FF guidance is not as vulnerable in Monmouth, Ocean, Mercer counties--- that may be where the predominant threat for excessive rain is greatest-per WPC's morning excessive rain outlook for today-tonight. 610A/12 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 So, another complex that's likely to stay south of me. Dry begets dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: So, another complex that's likely to stay south of me. Dry begets dry... Doesn't look too good to me for se NYS, even Sussex County in extreme nw NJ and most of interior CT. Maybe storms will end up further north? For now, I'd plan on watering vulnerable flowers late today, Thursday, Friday, Saturday before we get our next area wide chance of 1/4 to 2" rain late Sunday-Monday. (parts of our NYC forum had rain early this morning but that's about done til sometime between Noon-3P today). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 Shower activity began developing NYC-PHL (I95 corridor) around 1130-1145A. Wind north in Wantage with dew point 72. 1151A/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 So far as of 115PM I've found at least two 1+" storm total reports near I195, rainfall RATES of 3-5"/hr (digital and WXUNDERGROUND). I discounted one 4+ report...needs another detailed surroundings check. Offline til 245P. NO SVR verification posted as far as I know as of 110P. 121P/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Looks like a cell popping over extreme northern Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 I wonder if this will be one of those days with outflow boundary dominoes popping storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Some areas of western suffolk along the LIE may have had more than 2" of rain already. cells are not moving, staying put 3-4 miles SE of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Lots of lightning and very loud thunder here from a storm sitting to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 So far nothing N&W of I95. Wonder if that will remain the case looks like something just popped up over the turnpike in Middlesex 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 I have had a thunderstorm sitting over my area the past hour that has dropped 3/4 of an inch of rain. Meanwhile just a short distance to my south it looks like sunshine. Reminds me of my days in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: So far nothing N&W of I95. Wonder if that will remain the case I think the action in central Jersey is about to kickoff, it has gotten very breezy and I am surrounding by dark heavy clouds in New Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Radar estimates of 2-3 inches of rain across Central Nassau. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Just now, Will - Rutgers said: I think the action in central Jersey is about to kickoff, it has gotten very breezy and I am surrounding by dark heavy clouds in New Brunswick. Yeah I edited my post, looks like something fired around woodbridge/carteret Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 21 minutes ago, Rjay said: Lots of lightning and very loud thunder here from a storm sitting to my north. ive missed out on the storms by a few miles all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Radar estimates of 2-3 inches of rain across Central Nassau. Yea I am in the yellow zone between East Meadow and Levittown.I had 3/4 of an inch but just to my north it was worse and just to my south not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 33 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: So far nothing N&W of I95. Wonder if that will remain the case looks like something just popped up over the turnpike in Middlesex Raining here in Carteret. ETA: with some added thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Moderate to heavy rain falling here w/thunder and lightning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 .70 and still pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 W LI... Wundermap storm totals... a few if you can read the towns they're near. 320P/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 46 minutes ago, psv88 said: ive missed out on the storms by a few miles all day I'm getting nailed here in Great Neck at work, but my house hasn't seen anything in Syosset. Of course my weather envoy seems to have locked up since 1:30 pm so now no data is being received either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Thunderstorms missed me to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, uofmiami said: I'm getting nailed here in Great Neck at work, but my house hasn't seen anything in Syosset. Of course my weather envoy seems to have locked up since 1:30 pm so now no data is being received either. Looks like a station just to your south picked up 2.34. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYMANHA21/table/2020-08-12/2020-08-12/daily 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Decent thunderstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Just had a lightning strike on my block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Nothing but bright sunshine and a few puffy cumulus clouds up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Flash flood warning, some thunder but not a drop here. Im told its pouring a quarter mile south of me. Queens north of LIE, to Fordham Rd/Pelham Pkwy, Bx getting it good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 I can hear thunder but haven’t had a single drop of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 LGA 1.32” in the past hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 what a deluge for manhattan.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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