Climate Sensitivity Narrowed: 2.3C - 4.5C

[donsutherland1]

Researchers have narrowed the range of climate sensitivity from a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Unfortunately, all of the narrowing occurred at the bottom end of the range. As a result, the range was changed from 1.5C - 4.5C to 2.3C - 4.5C.

The full paper can be found here:

https://climateextremes.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/WCRP_ECS_Final_manuscript_2019RG000678R_FINAL_200720.pdf

 

[skierinvermont]

On 8/10/2020 at 1:27 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Researchers have narrowed the range of climate sensitivity from a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Unfortunately, all of the narrowing occurred at the bottom end of the range. As a result, the range was changed from 1.5C - 4.5C to 2.3C - 4.5C.

The full paper can be found here:

https://climateextremes.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/WCRP_ECS_Final_manuscript_2019RG000678R_FINAL_200720.pdf

 

Wasn’t the previous range based on numerous independent sources of evidence and studies? Is this a meta analysis? Will have to read in the morning.

 

edit: just opened it and from the title it looks like a meta analysis! Makes sense now

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, skierinvermont said:

Wasn’t the previous range based on numerous independent sources of evidence and studies? Is this a meta analysis? Will have to read in the morning.

 

edit: just opened it and from the title it looks like a meta analysis! Makes sense now

Yes, it’s a meta analysis.

[Heat_Is_On]

This study suggests the feedbacks are at least double (roughly) and more likely triple from doubling CO2.  Doesn't the CMIP6 have a even higher range of temperature change for doubling of CO2 than CMIP5?   Why does the IPCC still hold on to the 1.5C to 4.5C range it has had for decades? This is a big range. You would think they could have narrowed it down by now. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Heat_Is_On said:

Doesn't the CMIP6 have a even higher range of temperature change for doubling of CO2 than CMIP5? 

They won’t be able to narrow down the range until the ATOMIC study is completed.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/some-new-climate-models-are-projecting-extreme-warming-are-they-correct/

The research that originally motivated this project was an analysis that showed that the single biggest factor that separated the CMIP models into big warming and not so big warming was treatment of shallow convective clouds,” Fairall explains.

The best places to find shallow convective clouds are tropical waters. So in February, a group of scientists from more than 40 partner institutions from countries including the U.S., Germany, France, and the U.K. painstakingly probed hundreds of miles of tropical air and sea near the island of Barbados. They used every tool in their arsenals: five research aircraft, four large fact-finding vessels, buoys, radar and futuristic air and ocean drones to examine the makeup of these complicated and crucial clouds.

Scientists expect that the vast, concurrent and diverse types of observations captured in ATOMIC will allow them to improve how clouds are represented in climate models, enabling them to make more precise predictions of future climate and impacts.

Fairall says the data from ATOMIC is ideal for such assessments, and he expects the findings will inform the upcoming 2021 comprehensive IPCC report. With the data from ATOMIC still being analyzed, scientists have not yet reached conclusions.

On the whole, however, these unprecedented research efforts to troubleshoot discrepancies in the latest models have already borne critical fruit. They are providing scientists with more insights, illustrating the crucial value of the scientific method, lending credibility to the capability of climate models, and helping build more confidence within the climate science community.

 

[bdgwx]

3 hours ago, Heat_Is_On said:

This study suggests the feedbacks are at least double (roughly) and more likely triple from doubling CO2.  Doesn't the CMIP6 have a even higher range of temperature change for doubling of CO2 than CMIP5?   Why does the IPCC still hold on to the 1.5C to 4.5C range it has had for decades? This is a big range. You would think they could have narrowed it down by now. 

I believe they had been publishing 2.0-4.5C per 2xCO2 in previous publications and then widen it to 1.5-4.5C for AR5.

 

[chubbs]

From Hanson's latest monthly temp report. Raising of the lower ECS bound consistent with the recent spike in global temperature, well above the 1970-2015 trend.

https://mailchi.mp/1342a49ee5d3/july-2020-global-temperature-update

[Typhoon Tip]

On 8/14/2020 at 12:44 PM, bluewave said:

They won’t be able to narrow down the range until the ATOMIC study is completed.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/some-new-climate-models-are-projecting-extreme-warming-are-they-correct/

The research that originally motivated this project was an analysis that showed that the single biggest factor that separated the CMIP models into big warming and not so big warming was treatment of shallow convective clouds,” Fairall explains.

The best places to find shallow convective clouds are tropical waters. So in February, a group of scientists from more than 40 partner institutions from countries including the U.S., Germany, France, and the U.K. painstakingly probed hundreds of miles of tropical air and sea near the island of Barbados. They used every tool in their arsenals: five research aircraft, four large fact-finding vessels, buoys, radar and futuristic air and ocean drones to examine the makeup of these complicated and crucial clouds.

Scientists expect that the vast, concurrent and diverse types of observations captured in ATOMIC will allow them to improve how clouds are represented in climate models, enabling them to make more precise predictions of future climate and impacts.

Fairall says the data from ATOMIC is ideal for such assessments, and he expects the findings will inform the upcoming 2021 comprehensive IPCC report. With the data from ATOMIC still being analyzed, scientists have not yet reached conclusions.

On the whole, however, these unprecedented research efforts to troubleshoot discrepancies in the latest models have already borne critical fruit. They are providing scientists with more insights, illustrating the crucial value of the scientific method, lending credibility to the capability of climate models, and helping build more confidence within the climate science community.

 

Was this written by scientist ?

"...and futuristic air and ocean drones ..."  sounds like something my 12-year nephew would say - LOL

 

[LibertyBell]

On 8/26/2020 at 1:42 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Was this written by scientist ?

"...and futuristic air and ocean drones ..."  sounds like something my 12-year nephew would say - LOL

 

ocean drones? that reminds me of the autonomous vehicles being used to mine the ocean floor

 

[Ghaliouvic]

 

this video speaks very well of global warming I advise you

http://adfoc.us/51203075972454

[bluewave]

On 8/30/2020 at 8:21 PM, LibertyBell said:

ocean drones? that reminds me of the autonomous vehicles being used to mine the ocean floor

 

The technology involved is really impressive.

https://www.ecomagazine.com/news/oceans/gliders-drifters-and-drones-solving-key-climate-question

Types of autonomous instruments

Here are some of the unmanned sensors that will be deployed by NOAA’s ATOMIC (the Atlantic Tradewind Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Interaction Campaign) and the European EUREC4A (Elucidating the Role of Clouds-Circulation Coupling in Climate ) campaigns.

Wave gliders: These are wave-propelled, solar-powered autonomous surfboards capable of sustained deployment over multiple seasons that convert the energy of waves into thrust. Each wave glider is made up of a 7-foot long surfboard-like float tied to a submerged glider that controls speed and direction along a programmed or remotely-piloted path. Wave gliders measure wave properties, currents, ocean temperature and salinity, exchanges between the air and water, along with surface weather. Data are transmitted to shore via satellite.

Seagliders: Five of these small, streamlined, free-swimming vehicles will repeatedly dive and climb to make measurements of the upper ocean traditionally collected by research vessels or moored instruments, but for months at a time and at a fraction of the cost. They can survey a transect, hover at a fixed location, or receive remote directions to follow a set course.

Saildrones: Five of these autonomous, solar-powered sailboats will operate in the larger ocean area around Barbados in January and February. It’s a unique instrument package that provides simultaneous measurements of the lower atmosphere and upper ocean: waves, ocean temperatures, salinity and currents, along with surface weather and ocean chemistry. Two NOAA-funded saildrones will be on extended operation from February through July, while the original saildrone fleet will return to Barbados for recovery.

SWIFT buoys: Six SWIFT buoys - SWIFT stands for Surface Wave Instrument Floats with Tracking - will drift along the sea surface measuring ocean turbulence, wave properties, salinity, water, surface meteorology, and capture images of clouds.

Argo floats: These battery-powered autonomous floats spend most of their time drifting at a depth of about 1.2 miles measuring temperature and salinity, then rise to the surface on a set schedule to transmit data in real-time via satellite. Argo floats cycle through these dives, or “profiles” for four to five years on battery power. Since its inception in 1999, the Argo Program has grown to include almost 4,000 floats and participation from 26 countries across the globe.

Ocean Drifters: Ten enhanced drifting buoys will also aid in collection of ocean data. “Drifters” are composed of a surface float, which includes a transmitter to relay data via satellite, and a thermometer that reads temperature a few centimeters below the air-sea interface. The floats were also equipped with salinity sensors for this experiment. The surface float is tethered to a holey sock drogue (a.k.a. “sea anchor”), centered at 15 m depth. The drifter follows the ocean surface current flow integrated over the drogue depth.

In the skies: Unmanned aerial vehicles or UAVs can fly slower and lower than larger piloted aircraft, making UAVs ideal for probing the marine boundary layer that connects clouds with the ocean surface, from 100 to 10,000 feet of elevation. The ability of these small craft to fly grids at different elevations offers the opportunity to obtain measurements unavailable with larger, faster aircraft. The UAVs can collect needed information on turbulence and its impact on the transfer of heat, mass, and momentum across the cloud base.

NOAA scientists will deploy the RAAVEN UAV, carrying the miniflux sensor package developed by NOAA, CIRES and University of Colorado scientists in Boulder, Colorado, in flights just offshore, where ships and other ocean-based platforms can't operate. The measurements will explore the interactions between the ocean surface and the overlying atmosphere, as well as the interface between that boundary layer and the clouds that are generated.

These roaming autonomous platforms significantly enhance the coverage of data available across space and over time compared to that from one location. These datasets will complement the intensive data collection also taking place at the ships, aircraft, and buoys during ATOMIC.

Story by NOAA

[LibertyBell]

Thanks Chris, this should improve our forecasting considerably, we still need to improve quite a bit in forecasting rapidly strengthening TC's